tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-81010598157156834002024-03-13T08:53:24.115-07:00The Lone RangerKumarhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02571503236070897848noreply@blogger.comBlogger105125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8101059815715683400.post-967874434308047882021-04-18T01:24:00.006-07:002021-04-18T01:41:49.746-07:00USS John Paul Jones FONOP - A Perspective on the Extent and Limits of the EEZ<p><span><span style="color: red; font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><i>After a long hiatus.....</i></span></span></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><span><span style="font-family: georgia;"><i>A Freedom of Navigation Operation (FONOP) by a US warship brought into fore the extent and legal limitations of the exclusive economic zone.<br /></i></span></span></span></p><p></p><p style="text-align: left;"></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;"></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 14pt; line-height: 115%;">A US guided missile destroyer
sailed through India’s exclusive economic zone (EEZ), 130 nautical miles west
of Lakshadweep Islands, without intimating India – in alleged violation of
Indian law. Almost all Indian news channels/websites accused the US Navy of
having violated Indian law/international law. It is not clear whether the
Arleigh Burke-class destroyer was merely transiting the Indian EEZ or carrying
out manoeuvres.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 14pt; line-height: 115%;">A statement released by the US
Navy’s Seventh Fleet said, “On April 7, 2021 (local time) USS John Paul Jones
(DDG 53) asserted navigational rights and freedoms approximately 130 nautical
miles west of the Lakshadweep Islands, inside India’s exclusive economic zone,
without requesting India’s prior consent, consistent with international law.”<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 14pt; line-height: 115%;">It said India requires prior
consent for military exercises or manoeuvres in its EEZ or continental shelf,
and added that this claim was inconsistent with international law.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 14pt; line-height: 115%;">This Freedom of Navigation
Operation (FONOP) upheld the rights, freedoms, and lawful uses of the sea
recognised in international law by challenging India’s excessive maritime
claims, it said.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 14pt; line-height: 115%;">In a statement issued, India’s
external affairs ministry said it had raised the matter of the USS John Paul
Jones passing through the EEZ with the US.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 14pt; line-height: 115%;">“The USS John Paul Jones was
continuously monitored transiting from the Persian Gulf towards the Malacca
Straits. We have conveyed our concerns regarding this passage through our EEZ
to the Government of U.S.A through diplomatic channels,” it said.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 14pt; line-height: 115%;">India reiterated its adherence to
the UNCLOS and said that the laws under this “does not authorise other States
to carry out in the Exclusive Economic Zone and on the continental shelf
military exercises or manoeuvres, in particular those involving the use of
weapons or explosives, without the consent of the coastal state.”<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 14pt; line-height: 115%;">This incident has
politico-diplomatic dimensions and international legal implications. This post
is an attempt to analyse the international legal ramifications in the light of the
provisions of the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS),
1982 in respect of the coastal state’s rights and limitations vis-à-vis the
Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ).<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 14pt; line-height: 115%;">For the purposes of the present
incident, it is relevant to refer to Articles 55 to 58 of UNCLOS 1982.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;"><b><span style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 14pt; line-height: 115%;">Article 55</span></b><span style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 14pt; line-height: 115%;"> of the
1982 Convention stipulates that the exclusive economic zone is an area beyond
and adjacent to the territorial sea, subject to the specific legal regime
established under the Convention. The zone starts from the outer edge of the
territorial sea but shall not extend beyond 200 nautical miles from the
baselines from which the breadth of the territorial sea is measured. In other
words, the zone would effectively be only 188 nautical miles with the
territorial sea being 12 nautical miles. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;"><b><span style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 14pt; line-height: 115%;">Article 56</span></b><span style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 14pt; line-height: 115%;"> provides
that the coastal state in the EEZ has <i>inter alia</i> <i>sovereign rights for
the purpose of exploring and exploiting, conserving and managing the natural
resources, whether living or non-living, of the waters superjacent to the
seabed and of the seabed and its subsoil and with regard to other activities
for the economic exploitation and exploration of the zone, such as the
production of energy from the water, currents and winds.</i><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 14pt; line-height: 115%;">The key phrase in the above
provision is <b>“sovereign rights”</b>. Sovereign rights are not the same as <b>“sovereignty”
</b>which is conferred on a coastal state with reference to the territorial sea.<b>
</b>In order to distinguish between sovereign rights and sovereignty, in this
context, it is necessary to refer to Article 2 of the 1982 Convention which
defines the <b>territorial sea</b>. Sub-clause 1 of Article 2 of the Convention
of 1982 provides that the <i>sovereignty</i> of a coastal State extends, beyond
its land territory and internal waters and, in the case of an archipelagic
State, its archipelagic waters, to an adjacent belt of sea, described as the
territorial sea. Sub-clause 2 of Article 2 provides that the <i>sovereignty</i>
extends to the air space over the territorial sea as well as to its bed and
subsoil. Sovereignty in international law, is the exercise of power by a state.
The sovereign rights, in Article 56 refer to the coastal state’s rights below
the surface of the sea; surface waters are international waters. Thus, the rights
available to a coastal state are confined to exploring and exploiting,
conserving and managing the natural resources in the waters superajacent (that
is lying over or above something else). The USS John Paul Jones was not
violating India’s sovereign rights in the exclusive economic zone. In fact,
under the Freedom of Navigation Operation it was merely transiting through
India’s exclusive economic zone. Hence there was no infringement of either
India’s sovereign rights or sovereignty. The only cause for provocation was the
statement issued by the Seventh Fleet. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;"><b><span style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 14pt; line-height: 115%;">Article 58</span></b><span style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 14pt; line-height: 115%;"> of the
Convention stipulates that in the exclusive economic zone, all states whether
coastal or land-locked enjoy subject to the relevant provisions of the
Convention, the freedoms referred to in Article 87 <b>of navigation </b>(which
was purported to be exercised by the USS John Paul Jones), overflight and
laying of submarine cables and pipelines <b><i>and other internationally lawful
uses of the sea related to these freedoms</i></b> such as those <b><i>associated
with the operation of ships, aircraft and submarine cables and pipelines</i></b>.
The Article also provides that the states in exercising their rights and
performing their duties, <b>due regard should be had to the rights, duties and
laws of the coastal state</b> (something being emphasised by India).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 14pt; line-height: 115%;">The latter part of the above
provision in <i>italics</i> was interpreted by the maritime powers to imply
that the naval manoeuvres was legal in a coastal state’s exclusive economic
zone which was covered broadly under the phrase “associated with the operation
of ships.” However, some of the coastal states dissented and interpreted the
said provision narrowly contending that the said provision did not entitle the
other states to carry out military activities in the zone and that prior
consent was necessary before carrying out such activities. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 14pt; line-height: 115%;">The question of whether a foreign
country has the right to conduct military activities in the exclusive economic
zone of a coastal state was subject matter of controversy when the text of the
1982 Convention was being negotiated. The maritime powers pitched for a broad
range of military activities in consonance with the traditional high seas
freedom (which are provided for in the 1958 Geneva Convention on the High Seas).
The maritime powers have sought to interpret the phrase “other internationally
lawful uses of the sea related to these freedoms” to include military
activities such as task force maneuvering, flight operations, military
exercises, naval surveys, intelligence gathering and weapons testing and
firing.<a href="file:///C:/Users/kumar/Documents/Blog-EEZ-John%20Paul%20Jones.docx#_ftn1" name="_ftnref1" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn1;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="color: #222222;"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="color: #222222; font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin;">[1]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></span></a>
Many years ago one operational commander from the United States wrote that the
EEZ regime did not permit the Coastal State to limit traditional non-resources
related high seas activities in the EEZ, such as task force maneuvering, flight
operations, military exercises, telecommunications and space activities,
intelligence and surveillance activities, marine data collection, and weapons
testing and firing”. This was vehemently objected to, by some coastal states
because these activities posed a threat to these states. The Convention itself
is silent on this controversial issue. And further this issue has not come up
for judicial interpretation before the International Court of Justice or the
International Tribunal for the Law Of the Sea.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 14pt; line-height: 115%;">Maritime Zones Schematic<br /></span><br /></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-lFB_ZW86bOo/YHvrp5u_pnI/AAAAAAAATaU/Iabmkui62LsPVehfsh6kmQhQRS5h6b0dgCLcBGAsYHQ/s815/MaritimeZoneSchematic-1.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="419" data-original-width="815" height="206" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-lFB_ZW86bOo/YHvrp5u_pnI/AAAAAAAATaU/Iabmkui62LsPVehfsh6kmQhQRS5h6b0dgCLcBGAsYHQ/w400-h206/MaritimeZoneSchematic-1.png" width="400" /></a></div><br />
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 14pt; line-height: 115%;">Source:</span> <a href="https://sites.tufts.edu/lawofthesea/chapter-two/">Chapter 2: Maritime
Zones – Law of the Sea (tufts.edu)</a><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;"><b><span style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 14pt; line-height: 115%;">India’s legal position<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 14pt; line-height: 115%;">India enacted the Territorial
Waters, Continental Shelf, Exclusive Economic Zone and Other Maritime Zones
Act, 1976. Sub-section (9) of Section 7 of the said Act provides: “In the
exclusive economic zone and the air space over the zone, ships and aircraft of
all States shall subject to the exercise by India of its rights within the zone,
enjoy freedom of navigation and over flight.”<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 14pt; line-height: 115%;">However, India, at the time of
ratifying the UNCLOS in June 1995 issued the following declarations:<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 14pt; line-height: 115%;">Declarations: <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 14pt; line-height: 115%;">“(a) The Government of the
Republic of India reserves the right to make at the appropriate time the
declarations provided for in articles 287 and 298, concerning the settlement of
disputes.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 14pt; line-height: 115%;">(b) The Government of the
Republic of India understands that the provisions of the Convention do not
authorize other States to carry out in the exclusive economic zone and on the
continental shelf military exercises or manoeuvres, in particular those
involving the use of weapons or explosives without the consent of the coastal
State.”<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 14pt; line-height: 115%;">While recognizing the freedom of
navigation and overflight in the EEZ, India carved out a reservation while
ratifying the 1982 Convention prohibiting other States from carrying out
military exercises or manoeuvres without its consent. The legal validity of the
above reservation, in the opinion of the writer, is questionable.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 14pt; line-height: 115%;">It is pertinent, here, to refer
to the Maritime Delimitation in the Black Sea (Romania v Ukraine) 2009 ICJ 61,
wherein the International Court of Justice was asked to consider a RUD (reservations, understandings and declarations) adopted by Romania when it ratified </span><span style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 14pt; line-height: 115%;">UNCLOS, a treaty that
prohibits most reservations but allows interpretative declarations as long as
they do not purport to exclude or modify the legal effect of the convention. Romania
had issued an interpretative declaration regarding Article 121 which lays down
the definition of an island as “a naturally formed area of land, surrounded by
water, which is above water at high tide” and distinguishes rocks that cannot sustain
human habitation or economic life of their own in Article 121 (3) as not having
an exclusive economic zone or continental shelf. The interpretative declaration
allowed for a more preferable delimiting boundary by not considering rocks as
part of the delimitation of maritime spaces. The ICJ while holding against
Romania observed that the declaration could not modify the legal effect of the
UNCLOS provisions. So also, India could not import <i>vide</i> a municipal legislation
(the 1976 Act) a restriction on the navigational freedom and other lawful uses
of the sea with respect to the exclusive economic zone.<a href="file:///C:/Users/kumar/Documents/Blog-EEZ-John%20Paul%20Jones.docx#_ftn2" name="_ftnref2" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn2;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin;">[2]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 14pt; line-height: 115%;">It is also relevant to point out
that the US Navy protested this restriction in 2007 and has stated that it did
not recognize this claim and in pursuance thereof also conducted operational assertions
in 1999, 2001 and 2008 through 2014 thereby attempting to establish a state
practice.<a href="file:///C:/Users/kumar/Documents/Blog-EEZ-John%20Paul%20Jones.docx#_ftn3" name="_ftnref3" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn3;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin;">[3]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 14pt; line-height: 115%;">In conclusion, it needs to be
pointed out that FONOPS are well recognized in law and practice and the statement
issued by the Seventh Fleet and its fallout needs to be tackled at the
diplomatic or political level in the larger interests of securing India’s
geopolitical objectives in the Indo-Pacific through the Quadrilateral Security
Dialogue (QUAD). <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><o:p></o:p></p>
<div style="mso-element: footnote-list;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><br clear="all" />
<hr align="left" size="1" width="33%" />
<!--[endif]-->
<div id="ftn1" style="mso-element: footnote;">
<p class="MsoFootnoteText"><a href="file:///C:/Users/kumar/Documents/Blog-EEZ-John%20Paul%20Jones.docx#_ftnref1" name="_ftn1" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn1;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[1]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a> <span lang="EN-IN" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-IN;">Hyun Soo Kim, Military Activities in
the Exclusive Economic Zone: Preventing Uncertainty and Defusing Conflict;
International Law Studies – Vol 80<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div id="ftn2" style="mso-element: footnote;">
<p class="MsoFootnoteText"><a href="file:///C:/Users/kumar/Documents/Blog-EEZ-John%20Paul%20Jones.docx#_ftnref2" name="_ftn2" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn2;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[2]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a> <span lang="EN-IN" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-IN;">Eric Chung, The Judicial Enforceability
and Legal Effects of Reservations, Understandings and Declarations; The Yale
Law Journal Vol 126 2016-17 </span><span style="color: black;"><a href="https://www.yalelawjournal.org/article/the-judicial-enforceability-and-legal-effects-of-treaty-reservations-understandings-and-declarations">Yale
Law Journal - The Judicial Enforceability and Legal Effects of Treaty
Reservations, Understandings, and Declarations</a><span lang="EN-IN" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-IN;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
</div>
<div id="ftn3" style="mso-element: footnote;">
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: black;"><a href="file:///C:/Users/kumar/Documents/Blog-EEZ-John%20Paul%20Jones.docx#_ftnref3" name="_ftn3" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn3;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 11pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[3]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a> <a href="http://www.jag.navy.mil/organization/code_10_mcrm.htm"><span style="background: white; border: 1pt none windowtext; font-size: 11.5pt; line-height: 107%; mso-border-alt: none windowtext 0cm; padding: 0cm;">www.jag.navy.mil/organization/code_10_mcrm.htm</span></a><span style="background: white; font-size: 11.5pt; line-height: 107%;">.</span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoFootnoteText"><span lang="EN-IN" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-IN;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
</div>
</div><br /><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p>Kumarhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02571503236070897848noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8101059815715683400.post-41256898272589065872018-08-12T20:18:00.000-07:002018-08-12T20:18:29.218-07:00The Syrian Conundrum<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">In the second half of
the 19<sup>th</sup> century, a “Great Game” was played out between the British
and the Russian empires seeking dominion of Central Asia. More than a century
and half later, a new “Great Game” is being played out in Syria for dominance
of the Middle East. The only difference is that there are multiple players in
this great game. While the United States and its European allies and Russia are
the primary actors in this game, the role played by the regional powers like Israel,
Iran, Turkey and Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states as well as non-state actors/terrorist
outfits have added to the complexity. The Syrian civil war ceased to be an
internal conflict a long time ago. It has turned into a battle ground for
influence in the Middle East, a realignment of forces and the balance of power
that it accompanies.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
<b><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">The
Beginning<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
<b><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span></b></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"> In 2011 successful uprisings that brought
about regime change in Egypt and Tunisia and came to be known as the Arab
Spring gave hope to Syrian pro-democracy activists. In the March of 2011
peaceful protests erupted in Syria’s southern city of Daraa after the arrest
and torture of fifteen teenagers who wrote graffiti and other revolutionary
slogans in support of the Arab Spring. One of the teenagers, thirteen year old
Hamza al-Khateeb was brutally tortured and later killed. The Assad government
responded to the protests by opening fire on demonstrators, killing many of
them. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Till the first week of
April, the main demand of the protesters was democratic reforms, release of
political prisoners, an increase in freedoms, abolition of emergency law and an
end to corruption. In the second week of April, there was a shift towards a
call to overthrow the Assad government. By 22<sup>nd</sup> April, the protests
had occurred in twenty cities. By the end of May 2011, nearly 1000 civilians
and about 150 security personnel had been killed and thousands detained.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Significant armed
resistance against the government took place in the first week of June 2011.
The protests led rapidly to an armed uprising. On 30<sup>th</sup> September
2015, Russia intervened in response to an official request from the Syrian
government. Russia began a sustained air campaign targeting the Islamic State
of Iraq and Syria (or Levant) ISIS and the anti-Assad Free Syrian Army – a
faction comprising of defectors of the Syrian military which was formed in July
2011.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
<b><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">The
Power Vacuum, US Policy and Russian Intervention</span></b><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<b><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span></b></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Nature abhors a vacuum.
The Iraq experience demonstrated that withdrawals created a vacuum that
inevitably may be filled by other players or powers. A hastened and unplanned
withdrawal of US forces from Iraq sowed the seeds for the growth of the Islamic
State. Eight years of Obama Administration transformed the strategic calculus
of the Middle East. It was once said that the U.S. was the guarantor of
security in the Middle East. The Obama years replete with intransigence and
indecisiveness, and in particular, its failure to act when the Assad regime
forces used chemical weapons against its own citizens in August 2013 gave a
fillip to the Kremlin to step in. President Obama, in fact reneged on his
self-imposed red line and decided against a military response to the use of
chemical weapons. Instead in a naïve and fool-hardy manner, he acquiesced with
Kremlin’s proposal to allow its client Syria to “surrender” its chemical
weapons stockpile. This summed up the US policy in Syria. With
the exception of Syria, Russia does not have much influence in the larger
Middle Eastern region. Moscow is aware that any change in the domestic
situation in Syria is bound to impact Russia and its policies. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">There are three components
to Russia’s policy towards Syria and elsewhere: 1) in a kind of modern version
of the Brezhnev Doctrine, Putin will fight to ensure Russia does not lose
influence in Syria, and that influence is tied to the fate of the Assad regime;
2) Russia becomes unnerved when it sees states crumble from within with what it
believes to be the help of outside actors like the United States—e.g. what they
believed happened in Ukraine; and 3) Putin wants the world to know that Russia
is back; it is a power that must be reckoned with and cannot be ignored.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">And the Americans did just that – IGNORE. Russia under Putin
was fast becoming a revanchist power and the US and the West simply failed to
comprehend this reality. The West was slow to recognize the dangers posed by the
Russian President Vladimir Putin’s revisionist policies. At the Wales Summit in
September of 2014, NATO identified the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant
(ISIL) as a “grave threat” to its members. While expressing great concern about
and condemning Russia’s aggressive policy in Ukraine—and noting the various
steps taken to deal with the challenges of that policy—the Alliance declined to
characterize Russia as even a threat. Indeed, although the Summit statement
spoke of the need to provide “assurances” to Allies in Eastern Europe, it did
not speak of deterring the Kremlin. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">This same reluctance was evident nearly a year later, in the
summer of 2015, when General Joseph Dunford testified before Congress as
President Barack Obama’s nominee to be the next Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of
Staff. <b>General Dunford identified Russia
as an existential threat.</b> Later that day, however, Josh Earnest, the Presidential
press spokesman, said that Dunford’s observation “reflects his own view and
doesn’t necessarily reflect the view—or the consensus—of the President’s
national security team.” This was further exacerbated when the next day
Secretary of State John Kerry also stepped in and made clear that he did not
view Russia as an existential threat. It was amateurish to say the least.</span><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">According to Col. Robert
E. Hamilton “Syria also figures prominently in Russia’s geopolitical calculus
for what it represents: a chance for Russia to take a stand against what it
sees as a U.S.-engineered series of regime changes that target the stability of
Russia itself. From the “Color Revolutions” in the former Soviet Union to the
Arab Spring uprisings, many Russians believe the U.S. is carrying out a
deliberate and comprehensive program of enforced democratization, with Russia
as its ultimate target. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">In the Russian view a
western process of democratization is catastrophic and is a recipe for chaos
and renewed civil war. This apprehension is not entirely unfounded. After all,
voters in a country that has experienced years of conflict that morphed into a
bitter ethnic and sectarian civil war with considerable interference by outside
powers can hardly be expected to have sufficient trust in the democratic
process to refrain from casting their votes along those same ethnic and sectarian
lines. And the political institutions of a country riven by such ethnic and
sectarian violence can hardly be expected to contain the grievances this
violence has stoked, especially if those institutions themselves are divided
along ethnic and sectarian lines. So the Russian concern with democratization
imposed from without, in a country with deep divisions in identities has a potential
to plunge the country into renewed civil war.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">A second Russian
concern, not expressed openly but deeply held, is that if a democratically
elected government in Syria does manage to hold itself and the country
together, it will turn Syria from a strategic partner of Russia into an
adversary. This is because any democratically elected government in Syria, a
country with a 74% Sunni majority, is likely to align itself with the other
Sunni regimes in the region and against Russia. In this case, Russia stands to
lose one of the two pillars of its regional strategy, along with its air base
at Latakia (Khmeimim or Hmeymim) and its naval base at Tartus. Russia’s air
base at Latakia and naval base at Tartus are extremely significant because they
serve as launch pads for possible Russian military operations in the region.
Kremlin’s military planners will try to secure these two vital pieces of real
estates.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">On 18 January 2017,
Russia and Syria signed an agreement, wherein Russia was to be be allowed to
expand and use the naval facility at Tartus for 49 years on a free-of-charge
basis and enjoy sovereign jurisdiction over the base. The treaty allowed Russia
to keep 11 warships at Tartus, including nuclear vessels; it stipulated
privileges and full immunity from Syria</span><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">′</span><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">s jurisdiction for Russia</span><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">′</span><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">s personnel
and material</span><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"> </span><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Materiel" title="Materiel"></a><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"> at the facility.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">According to Jane’s
Defence Weekly, there exists within Syria two secret signals intelligence ‘spy
posts’ operated jointly by Russia and Syria. The biggest Russian electronic
‘eavesdropping post’ outside Russian territory was established in Latakia in
2012. Another signals intelligence post, “Center S” ("Центр С" in
Cyrillic script), operated jointly by Russian OSNAC GRU radio intelligence
agency and a Syrian intelligence agency, situated near Al-Harra close to the
Golan Heights on the Israeli border was captured by rebels belonging to the
Free Syrian Army<a href="file:///C:/Users/Narayan/Documents/Blog-The%20Syrian%20Conundrum.docx#_edn1" name="_ednref1" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">[i]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></a>
in October 2014 during the Daraa offensive. <cite>Russian Main Intelligence Directorate’s OSNAC unit – its signals
intelligence unit, much like the American NSA or Unit 8200 in Israel– had been
operating from within a Syrian regime base near the border with Israel. Russian
troops had been collecting intelligence against Syrian rebels. This makes
sense: Russia is deeply involved in the Syrian civil war and has often filled
the role of international bodyguard for Bashar Assad. But the video also
revealed that OSNAC officers had been collecting operational intelligence on
Israel.</cite><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><cite><br /></cite></span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
<b><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Iranian
interests and game plan<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
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<b><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span></b></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Since the Syrian civil
war started in 2011, Iran has been dispatching soldiers, militias, money and
weapons to support the Assad regime. The result has been the transformation of
Syria from an authoritarian military dictatorship friendly to Iran to an
Iranian proxy in desperate need of Iranian support just to stay alive. Syria is
vital to Iran’s strategic interests in the Middle East and has long been its
closest ally. Some believe Tehran has been backing the Assad regime in Damascus
because of their shared religious roots. Both ruling cliques claim affinity
with the heterodox Shia, who is a minority in an Islamic world populated by
orthodox Sunnis. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Little binds the Iranian
Shia, known as Twelvers, with the Alawi Shia who rule Syria. The ninth-century
founder of the Alawi sect was an adherent of the eleventh of the Twelvers’
religious leaders. He promoted doctrines that were incompatible with Twelverism
and was declared an infidel by medieval Twelver scholars. Later Alawi
theologians went even farther, abrogating many of Islamic laws such as fasting
during the month of Ramadan while advocating the non-Islamic concept of the
transmigration of souls. They went so far as to deify Muhammad’s cousin Ali,
claiming that he was the true recipient of the prophetic message. They adopted
Christian and pagan holidays.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">These teachings did not
sit well with medieval Twelver scholars. The tenth-century Twelver
heresiographer Abu Muhammad al-Hassan ibn Musa al-Nawbakhti claimed the Alawi
founder propagated the un-Islamic belief of the transmigration of souls and
permitted homosexual relations. Jurists such as the eleventh-century scholar
Muhammad bin al-Hassan al-Tusi accused the Alawis of heresy and cursed them for
permitting what was forbidden.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">This suited the Alawis.
They believed they were the true holders of the original Islamic message, and
had little affection for Muslims who refused to follow them. The Twelvers
viewed them as enemies, and in 1834 raised troops for the Ottomans to quash an
Alawi revolt.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Sometimes Alawis did not
even identify as Muslims. When European travelers began visiting Syria in the
eighteenth century, Alawis informed them they were Christians. Isolated in
their mountain strongholds, they had little interaction with Muslims. But
modernity shattered these walls. To prevent missionaries from claiming them as
lost Christians, the Ottomans asserted they were Muslims. Mosques were built.
But the Alawis rejected these attempts of integration into the Islamic
community. When the French ruled Syria, they too tried to incorporate them into
the Islamic fold. Twelver judges were imported to establish courts. But the
Alawis rebuffed them as well. In 1948, Alawi students went to the Twelver
center of Najaf, Iraq to learn their doctrines. But after being ridiculed and
scorned, most quickly returned home.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">In the 1960s, Alawis
officers took power in Syria. But they did not establish cordial ties with
Iran. Instead, it was the Iran-Iraq war that proved a turning point. Tehran was
an international pariah, rejected by the West and fearful of Soviet communism.
It was desperate for allies. The Syrian president detested his Iraqi
counterpart and saw the war as an opportunity to weaken him. Iran bolstered a
flailing Syrian economy in 1982 by providing free oil. But religious ties
between the Alawis and Twelvers were as strained as ever. A 1985 American
diplomatic cable noted that Twelver scholars “view the Alawis as heretical and
despicable.” Indicative of the abyss between them, Twelvers sought to
proselytize among the Alawis. Six preachers were arrested for doing so in 1996.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">But Iran’s Syrian
strategy derives less from spurious religious ties than it does from
geopolitical factors. Surrounded by hostile pro-Western nations, Iran needs all
the allies it can find to ensure that its regional interests are protected.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Iran and Syria built a
defensive alliance based on mutual adversaries and fears. Historically
apprehensive of American and Israeli designs in the Middle East, they share
limited interests beyond their anti-Western ideology. But even this was not
enough to persuade Syria to put both feet in the Iranian camp. Damascus always
tried to keep Tehran at a comfortable distance, so as to not alienate Saudi
Arabia and the other Gulf countries.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Today, Iran fears the
fall of the Alawi regime would result in a Sunni government, which would ally
with its rival Saudi Arabia. It worries about the regional isolation that would
ensue. A regime change in Damascus would wipe out the regional gains that it
has carefully cultivated for almost forty years. Since the onset of the civil
war, Iran has provided the Assad government with financial, technical and
military support, including training and some combat troops. According to some
unconfirmed estimates approximately 10,000 Iranian operatives were thought to
have been in Syria. But according to an assistant professor and researcher at Webster
University, Iran had aided Syria with limited number of deployed units and
personnel. The Gatestone Institute
estimated that as of late 2016, Iran controlled over 70,000 troops deployed in
Syria (15,000 soldiers of the Iranian military, 20,000 members of the Iran controlled over 70,000 troops deployed in
Syria (15,000 soldiers of the Iranian military, 20,000 members of Liwa
Fatemiyoun, an Afghan Shia militia formed in 2014 to fight in Syria and funded
by the </span><span class="A0"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps - </span></span><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">IRGC, 20,000
Iraqi militiamen ten different groups, 10,000 Lebanese Hezbollah fighters, and
5,000 to 7,000 Pakistani and Palestinian militiamen), while also paying monthly
salaries to 250,000 "militia and agents" supporting the Assad
government.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
<span class="A0"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Iran’s
primary foreign military arm, Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps – Quds Force
(IRGC-QF), appeared to be leading this effort. The U.S. Department of the
Treasury (USDOT) designated IRGC-QF Commander Major General Qassem Suleimani
and Operations and Training Commander Mohsen Chizari in May 2011 for their role
in “the violent repression against the Syrian people.”The extent of IRGC-QF
involvement in Syria became clearer in February 2013 when Iranian Brigadier
General Hassan Shateri was assassinated in the Damascus countryside while
traveling to Beirut, after having travelled to Aleppo.</span></span><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"> </span><span class="A0"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">The
Quds Force is responsible for Iran’s external operations, and Commander
Suleimani played a prominent role managing Iranian activity in Iraq, and hence
was given a role in Iran’s Syria policy.</span></span><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"> </span><span class="A0"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">The
extent of IRGC-QF involvement in Syria became clearer in February 2013 when
Iranian Brigadier General Hassan Shateri was assassinated in the Damascus
countryside while traveling to Beirut, after having travelled to Aleppo.</span></span><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"> </span><span class="A0"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Shateri
was a senior Quds Force commander who had been operating covertly in Lebanon
since 2006 as the head of Iran’s Committee for the Reconstruction of Southern</span></span><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"> </span><span class="A0"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Lebanon
under the alias Hessam Khoshnevis.</span></span><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"> </span><span class="A0"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Prior
to his time in Lebanon, Shateri had operated in Afghanistan and Iraq.</span></span><span class="A12"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">
</span></span><span class="A0"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">The presence of such a high-ranking commander
inside Syria highlights Tehran’s commitment to achieving its objectives in the
country, as well as its potential vulnerabilities should Assad fall.</span></span><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
<span class="A0"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
<b><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Israel’s
limited intervention in the conflict <o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
<b><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span></b></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Israel is surrounded by
a host of state and non-state actors inimical to its security and national
interests. Throughout the Syrian civil war, Israel avoided taking sides and had
largely limited its role in the conflict to targeting weapons shipments en
route to Hezbollah. As the conflict dragged on and with Iran entrenching in
Syria, Israel started broadening the scope of its action to prevent its key
adversaries from producing or acquiring advanced weaponry in the first place.
This was essentially an extension of the Begin Doctrine, pioneered by Prime
Minister Menachem Begin in 1981, which insisted that Israel carry out
preemptive strikes to stop its enemies from constructing nuclear-enrichment
plants as well as production facilities for advanced conventional weapons.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Israel has, since the
eighties post the Islamic revolution in Iran, considered nuclear Iran as its
foremost adversary and a threat to its existence. Given the complexity of the
Syrian conflict, any Iranian entrenchment in Syria was intolerable from an
Israeli perspective. With the Assad regime being propped up by Kremlin’s
assistance and direct Iranian involvement, Israel has perceived and continues
to see a major threat to its security emanating from Iran’s Quds force
personnel and the Iranian proxy, the Shiite terror outfit the Hezbollah. At
first Israel had spelt out three red lines, with a fourth added shortly
thereafter. The first two pertained to Hezbollah. Israel made clear it would
prevent the Shiite group from bringing into Lebanon “game-changing” weaponry, the
definition of which has shifted over time, and from building or seizing control
of offensive infrastructure across the armistice line in Syria’s south west,
including Syrian army bunkers and bases presently under opposition control.
This red line extends to Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) advisers,
other Iran-backed Shiite militias or anyone else.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Second, Israel also
declared its intention to block the establishment of offensive infrastructure
east of the occupied Golan, whether by Hezbollah fighters and Iranian proxies
or by forces linked to al-Qaeda or the Islamic State (ISIS). Israel feared that
Iran and its partner forces would entrench themselves adjacent to the armistice
line, enabling the opening of a new front – one where Lebanese civilians
(especially Hezbollah’s constituents) would be out of the line of fire; Israel
would have insufficient justification, its officials fear, to readily reply in
Lebanon. An Israeli official described the strikes in January 2015 (killing a
prominent Hezbollah figure, Jihad Mughniyeh, along with several other members
of the organisation and an Iranian officer) and December 2015 (killing Samir
Quntar, who had been released in a 2008 prisoner exchange with Hezbollah and
subsequently became a senior figure in the organisation) as the most salient
instances of enforcing this red line. From the onset of the fighting until
Russia’s September 2015 military intervention, Israeli officials sought a
buffer zone – free of any hostile forces, including Assad’s army, which they
saw as an extension of Tehran’s – of about 20km; after Russia deployed, and
when Iran and its allies later gained the upper hand in the war, Israeli
officials began to demand a 60-km buffer, though they grudgingly came to terms
with a Syrian military presence within that area.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Israel’s third red line
was enemy fire into territory it controlled: Israel threatened to respond in
every instance, regardless of the perpetrator or intent. Until September 2016,
Israel’s policy was to retaliate against the regime in reaction to any and all
stray fire based on the fact that it was the sovereign power. But when rebels,
under pressure, began to fire into Israel to provoke a response against the
regime, Israel started firing back at them as well.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">The fourth red line was
never announced as such. In mid-2015, when a coalition of Syrian rebels moved
toward Sweida and Jabal Druze on the south west border with Jordan, and Jabhat
al-Nusra, then the Syrian al-Qaeda affiliate, moved northward from Quneitra,
Israel cautioned Syrian rebels against attacking the Druze population of the
area, particularly in the village of Hader, near the armistice line. The prime
minister announced he had instructed the military “to take all the necessary
actions” to protect the village’s residents. This <i>de facto</i> red line never attained the same prominence as the others
because the risk of carnage in the village quickly faded, reemerging only in
November 2017. Israel’s leadership felt forced to commit to this course of
action because it faces strong pressures from its own Druze population, who
serve in the Israeli army and therefore are linked with Israel’s Jewish
population in what they call a “blood pact”, which many Israeli Druze claim
extends to defending their relatives in Syria.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Israel is reported to
have carried out strikes deep inside Syria, many of which it has not admitted
to. On Feb. 10, 2018, an Iranian drone crossed into Israeli territory and was
shot down. Israel responded to the Iranian incursion by dispatching fighter
jets to attack targets in Syria, including the T4 also known as Tiyas air base,
near Palmyra, where the Iranian drone reportedly took off from. Syrian anti-air
systems retaliated, striking an Israeli F-16, which crashed after making it
back to Israeli territory. This prompted Israel to hit several Syrian targets
and four Iranian positions, according to the Israel Defense Forces. The attack
on the T4 airbase falls within the context of the last red line that Israel
drew, whereby it cannot accept Iran’s military entrenchment in Syria. This is
another stage in the accelerated clash between Iran’s determination to entrench
itself in the northern theater and Israel’s declared determination to prevent
it. In operational terms, Iran’s expected response will be an attack, not necessarily
immediate, either with a clear Iranian signature or by proxy, Iran’s preferred
modus operandi. The action in all likelihood will not be launched from Iranian
territory, but rather from Syria or from other operational theaters, such as
Yemen (which is adjacent to the navigation lanes in the Red Sea) or from
Lebanon, although an attack from Lebanon would pose a risk of wide-scale
escalation. There is also the possibility of attacks against Israeli and Jewish
targets worldwide, as occurred in the past. Any retaliatory attack against
Israeli or Jewish targets worldwide will invite a punishing reprisal from
Israel. And Iran should be aware of it. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
<b><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Ankara’s
intermeddling<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
<b><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span></b></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Turkey considers armed
Kurdish nationalist groups as major threats to its security. Though it
officially considers the Islamic State to be a terrorist organization and a
threat, its military operation in Syria has primarily been aimed at Kurdish
groups. The latter part of Operation Euphrates Shield in 2016 and Operation
Olive Branch in January 2018 which saw the Turkish forces’ offensive in Afrin,
were focused on the Kurdish YPG and the </span><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Partiya Karkeren Kurdistan, </span><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Kurdistan
Workers’ Party (PKK). <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Since the spring of 2015,
Turkey suffered a wave of high-profile terror attacks linked to the
self-pro-claimed Islamic State and the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK). In
response, Turkey deployed ground combat forces across the border into Syria,
with the aim of pushing the Islamic State and Kurdish forces from a small
self-declared “safe zone.” This military operation, dubbed Euphrates Shield, was
part of a new Turkish security strategy to attack terrorists in their safe
havens, rather than wait for them to infiltrate Turkey.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">The regional dynamics of
the Syrian civil war were further complicated on August 24, 2016, when Turkey
sent an armored battalion and supporting ground forces into northern Syria to
fight alongside nearly three thousand allied insurgents. This operation, dubbed
Euphrates Shield, faced no resistance when Turkish forces entered Jarabulus, a
strategic city that the Islamic State relied upon to move weapons, foreign
fighters, and materials across the border. The intervention was carried out in
part in Jarabulus to check the advance of the People’s Protection Units (YPG) linked
to Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK). Shortly thereafter, Turkey sent forces
across the border to al-Rai; together, these forces turned west toward Sawran
and then Dabiq, a symbolic city for the Islamic State. Turkey. Turkey continues
to be in illegal occupation of 3,460 square kilometer area comprising towns
such as Afrin, al-Bab, Azaz, Dabiq, Jarabulus, Jindires, Raco and Shaykh
al-Hadid. Turkey also threatened to attack Manbij where the US is present
alongside the SDF. Rising tensions between Washington and Ankara over the coup
attempt and the detention of the US pastor Andrew Brunson have not improved
matters.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">The Turkish army’s
incursion is likely to worsen Ankara’s Kurdish problems – no longer can the
Kurds be played against other Kurds. Turkish Kurds increasingly radicalized and
Syrian Kurds have an active hatred of the common enemy –Turkey.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">The Turkish aggression
against Syria has also increased Moscow and Tehran’s leverage with Syrian Kurds.
If Erdogan decides to occupy parts of Syria to prevent the Kurds from
developing further cross border supply lines with the Turkish Kurds, the PKK
there is likelihood that Damascus will extend support to the Kurds to bleed the
Turks on both sides of the border. In a battle of wills the Moscow – Damascus
alliance has the upper hand.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span></div>
<b><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif";">Conclusion<o:p></o:p></span></b><br />
<b><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif";"><br /></span></b>
<br />
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Russia, today, is the
predominant power in the Levant. And Russia is trying to broker an
understanding between the various players and obviate an escalation of the
conflict in the interests of its client state and in its own interests. On the
other hand, the Trump Administration has not shown any explicit interest in
countering the growing Russian influence in the region. The Trump
Administration has not made any new policy pronouncements in respect of Eastern
Syria. When it committed forces to Syria to fight ISIS the US had allied with
the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). However the support seems to have wavered. The
SDF also has begun having doubts about the US role especially after Turkish
forces took over Afrin which was under the control of Kurdish YPG. According to
Shalom Lipner if <i>Pax Americana</i> is
dead in the Middle East, it is only because the US has euthanized it. The US
needs to reverse the trend in order to play a meaningful role in Syria and the entire
region. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div>
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<br />
<div id="edn1">
<div class="MsoEndnoteText">
<a href="file:///C:/Users/Narayan/Documents/Blog-The%20Syrian%20Conundrum.docx#_ednref1" name="_edn1" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="font-family: "calibri" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%;">[i]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></a>
Free Syrian Army (FSA) emerged in the early stages of the anti-government
insurgency in 2011 and comprised partly of former members of the Syrian armed
forces.</div>
</div>
</div>
Kumarhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02571503236070897848noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8101059815715683400.post-57028115929370651302017-09-08T05:05:00.001-07:002017-09-10T21:54:25.000-07:00Israeli Airstrike on Syria – A Message to the Players in the Middle East <!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">The Israeli Air Force carried out an air strike targeting a chemical
weapons’ facility/research centre identified as the al-Talai facility and a military storage facility in Hama
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<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Syria’s army command reported that the air strike came
around 2.42 am (2342 GMT) from inside Lebanese airspace, near the western town
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precision missiles. Two Syrian soldiers were reportedly killed in the attack.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Even before the outbreak
of the war in Syria, the al-Talai centre was on the Israeli radar. The director
of the Israeli national security council’s counter terrorism bureau had called
for its destruction in 2010 as it is reported to have provided weapons to Hamas
and Hezbollah.</span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Maj. Gen. Yaakov Amidror a former national security adviser
to Prime Minister Netanyahu, said Hezbollah had received rockets from the
production facility in the past.</span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<br /></div>
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discuss the situation freely, confirmed that the Israelis carried out the
strike. The United States had no involvement in it and was assessing the
situation, the official said.</span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Israel and Russia maintain open communication lines and a
"mechanism" to prevent their air forces from coming into conflict
with one another. It was not clear whether Thursday's strike was coordinated
with Moscow, and there was no immediate comment from the Russians.</span></div>
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powers and all the other players in the Middle East that Israel would go to any
extent if its security was undermined. According to Amos Harel the Attack may
have been a signal to the United States and Russia that Israel wants its
security interests taken into account.</span></div>
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growing Iranian foot print in Syria. Israel had opposed a cease fire in parts
of Syria which was brokered by the United States and Russia on the grounds that
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"precision-guided missiles" with the aim of deploying them against
Israel.</span></div>
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everything to prevent the existence of a Shiite corridor from Iran to Damascus,”
while declining to comment directly on the air strike in an interview on Israeli
radio. He said Israel wasn't “looking for adventures, and we don't want to be
dragged into this fight or another.” </span></div>
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message to both Russia and Iran that Israel can strike anywhere in Syria. It
was also a rare instance of Israel striking a Syrian government facility rather
than an arms shipment and reminiscent of an Israeli airstrike that destroyed a
suspected, partially constructed nuclear reactor in the eastern city of Deir
el-Zour exactly 10 years ago.</span></div>
Kumarhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02571503236070897848noreply@blogger.com5tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8101059815715683400.post-19217556067104350122017-08-24T22:57:00.000-07:002017-08-24T22:57:31.090-07:00Will the Doklam Standoff Lead to Armed Conflict? - 2<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Countering
PLA Operations</span></b></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Countering the Chinese presence along the de facto border
are elements of the Northern, Western, Central and Eastern Commands of the Indian
Army. Specifically, the Indian defense is centered around deployments made by
the Leh-based XIV Corps, the Sukma-based XXXIII Corps, the Tezpur-based 4
Corps, the Dimapur-based III Corps and the Panagarh-based XVII Corps. The
overall strength of the Indian Army here would be close to 2 lakh men and
women. China's Western Theatre Command would have a similar number of soldiers
though China doesn't deploy as many soldiers directly on the LAC but can,
instead, use its superb road and rail network to surge troops to areas along
the de facto border between the two countries. Despite the tension between the
two countries, this has not happened.</span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">According to NDTV China cannot make any significant inroads
with the present number of soldiers it has deployed in the region and would
need to bring in soldiers from elsewhere, a move that would give Indian
military planners a clear indicator of a potential attack. At the same time,
India would be hard-pressed to deploy more soldiers along the LAC should that
be required since several formations are busy defending the border and the Line
of Control with Pakistan in addition to fighting terrorism in Jammu and Kashmir
and in parts of the Northeast.</span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">The Indian Air Force has 22 airfields and is developing a
network of smaller air landing grounds in the Eastern sector. The Chinese air
force has 15 air bases and 27 smaller airstrips but operates at a significant
disadvantage vis-à-vis the Indian Air Force. This is because all of Chinese
bases in the region are located high in the Tibetan plateau which makes it
impossible for the jets to take off with a full weapon load because of the
rarified atmosphere. The Indian Air Force, on the other hand, does not face any
such constraints. All its major bases in the region are located in the plains
and IAF fighters can take off with a full fuel and weapons load, a significant
operating advantage in the event of a conflict between the two countries. </span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">In the event of an armed conflict with China, apart from the
conventional operations, Indian Special Operation Forces would have a major
role to play. Success of SOF operations in this scenario will depend on the
availability of timely and accurate intelligence. India’s space-based
surveillance and high altitude unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) and aerostats
may be useful but the difficult terrain imposes limitations. Thus human
intelligence (HUMINT) would be critical in detecting Chinese operations,
whether it is in the form of troop or hardware movement, incursions, illicit
infrastructure development or subversion and sabotage. Indian intelligence
agencies need to tap the resident populations of the border areas for valuable
information on the enemy. Indian intelligence needs to focus on training its
field officers and SOFs operatives in the language and culture of the people in
order to glean information. India’s conventional deterrence would be reinforced
if the tribal and local population is recruited into the armed forces like in
the case of Ladakh Scouts or Sikkim Scouts who are adept at mountain warfare
and who are physiologically acclimatized to high altitudes and have intrinsic
knowledge of the terrain and conditions.</span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">India has enough Special Forces components to not only foil
PLA objectives in Arunachal, Sikkim, Ladakh or in Uttarakhand but may be able
to carry out operations deep behind enemy lines, if the need arises.</span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">The Special Services Bureau which metamorphosed into the
Sahastra Seema Bal SSB was constituted in 1963, immediately after the 1962 war
debacle, to act as a bulwark to keep the Chinese manoeuvres in the region at
bay by recruiting local foot soldiers in large numbers.</span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Organised for winning over the border population in
Arunachal Pradesh and Bangladesh, Nepal and even Jammu borders to serve as the
eyes and ears of the security forces, the Bureau played a key role in gathering
intelligence along the border and in neighbouring countries on Chinese designs.
Being wary of Chinese designs, India decided to revive the earlier version of
the SSB.</span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">The Special Frontier Force (SFF) also known as Establishment
22 was set up on 14<sup>th</sup> November 1962 whose main goal was to conduct
clandestine intelligence gathering and commando operations behind enemy lines
in the event of another war with China. The force based in Chakrata was put
under the direct supervision of the Intelligence Bureau and later the Research
and Analysis Wing. The SFF has seen action in Siachen in 1985-86 (Operation
Meghdoot); they participated in Operation Blue Star 1984 and during the Kargil
conflict in 1999. <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Manoj Joshi says that
India did create a true Special Forces set up which was intelligence led in the
SFF, which was originally created for operations in Tibet, but it has now
become obsolete and it is not clear what the mission of the force currently is.</i><a href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=8101059815715683400#_ftn1" name="_ftnref1" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn1;" title=""><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin;">[1]</span></span></a>
It is truly difficult to ascertain the current status of the force. While it
continues to exist, details of its organizational structure, equipment and
operational mandate are shrouded in secrecy. It appears that there is no
dilution in the operational mandate and if circumstances arise, New Delhi may
not hesitate to revive the SFF.</span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">On the
Cyber Front</span></b></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">"A draft proposal for setting up a separate tri-command
on cyberwarfare was prepared in consultations with the chiefs of the Indian Air
Force, Indian Army Indian Navy after Chinese hackers broke into the computer
systems of the headquarters of the Eastern Naval Command
in Visakhapatnam in 2012 where the homemade Arihant nuclear
submarine was undergoing sea trials," according to a senior Navy official
said.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">In 2013, computer systems of the Defence Research and
Development Organization were breached by Chinese hackers.</span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">According to a defense analyst Surya Kiran
Sharma, India is ill-prepared for a cyberwar.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">"India released its National Cyber Policy in 2013,
which had the ambitious aim of creating 500,000 cyber warriors," the
defense analyst said. "However, no significant work has been done on
the provisions of the cyber policy. India is inadequately prepared to counter
cyberwarfare, as is evident from the numerous attacks on national
websites." India’s cyber capabilities are at a stage of infancy. However a
beginning has been made in this area. </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Currently, all army units use the Bharat Operating System
Solutions (BOSS) developed by the Center for Development of Advanced Computing
(CDAC) in Chennai. </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">The operating system has replaced software that was
developed abroad. BOSS is connected to a central hub and is monitored closely
by senior officers in New Delhi alerts go out if a computer registers insertion
of data-storage devices such as a thumb drive.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Army officials from the Corps of Signals - which is
responsible for maintenance and looking after the entire gamut of military
communications - are of the opinion that BOSS has become a decisive factor to
effectively secure communication.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">India is also coming up with a tri-service cyber agency
which will deal with the matters of cyber security and have both offensive and
defensive capabilities while dealing with issues in that domain.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Chinese
views on Indian shortcomings </span></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Song Zhongping, a retired official of the PLA Rocket Force,
added that "India's military has more experience in mountain combat, but
it has at least three key weaknesses. </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">First, its weapons are mostly imported, so how could it
maintain supply after if it engages in total war with China? Second, its
logistics are poor, because its plan to build 73 highways for military
logistics by 2020 is only a third complete. And third, its weapons [from
different countries] aren't compatible in one comprehensive combat system and
its long-range missiles are not accurate at all," he said. While these
weaknesses need to be addressed and remedial measures taken, Indian forces will
not face a resource crunch in the event of a short duration conflict, a
prolonged conflict is very unlikely.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
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<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Conclusion</span></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">To quote Kyle Mizokami, <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">“A
war between India and China would be nasty, brutal and short, with far-reaching
consequences for the global economy. The balance of power and geographic
constraints means a war would almost certainly fail to prove decisive. Both
sides have almost certainly concluded this, which is why there hasn’t been a
war for more than fifty years. We can only hope it stays that way.”</i></span><br clear="all" />
</div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; letter-spacing: .55pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 18.0pt;"><br /></span></div>
<div style="mso-element: footnote-list;">
<br clear="all" />
<hr align="left" size="1" width="33%" />
<div id="ftn1" style="mso-element: footnote;">
<div class="MsoFootnoteText">
<a href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=8101059815715683400#_ftnref1" name="_ftn1" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn1;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif";"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin;">[1]</span></span></span></span></span></a><span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif";">
http://www.orfonline.org/expert-speaks/special-operations-pakistan-india-force/</span></div>
</div>
</div>
Kumarhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02571503236070897848noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8101059815715683400.post-89930044799854861062017-08-24T07:20:00.000-07:002017-08-28T04:55:23.678-07:00Will the Doklam Standoff Lead to Armed Conflict? - 1<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Belligerent
voices from Beijing</span></b></div>
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<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">With the border dispute
at Sikkim extending beyond a month, these are some of the statements emanating
from the Chinese government and/or the Chinese media:</span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"> China told foreign
diplomats posted in Beijing that it’s “patience with India won't be indefinite”.
China's version of the dispute is that India has "illegally
transgressed" the border at Sikkim to stop a road from being built on a
plateau in what it calls the Donglang region. India agrees with Bhutan's claim
that the land belongs not to China, but to the small Himalayan kingdom. Before
the confrontation escalated, India had also warned China that the road in what
Bhutan and India call Dokalam was “a serious security concern” because it gave
China access to the "Chicken's Neck", a narrow wedge of land, which
links the seven northeastern states to the rest of India.</span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">China is battle ready
and not afraid to go to war with India, and will face "all-out
confrontation" along the entire disputed border, a Chinese daily has
warned.</span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Keeping up its
sabre-rattling over the Doklam standoff, China's media said Beijing
"doesn't fear going to war" and that any escalation would see India
"face the consequence of an all-out confrontation".</span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">A commentary in the
hawkish Global Times, a tabloid under the People's Daily known for its hardline
views, accused India of "repeatedly making provocations" since the
1962 war, the latest of which, according to writer Duo Mu, was the standoff
near the India-China-Bhutan trijunction.</span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">"China must be
prepared for future conflicts and confrontation," the commentary said.</span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">"China can take further countermeasures along the Line of Actual Control
(LAC). If India stirs up conflicts in several spots, it must face the
consequence of an all-out confrontation with China along the entire LAC."</span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">India should not use "trespass"
into the Doklam area in the Sikkim sector as a "policy tool" to
achieve its "political targets", China said on Tuesday, asking New
Delhi to immediately withdraw its troops to avoid any escalation.</span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">China also carried out
live fire drills in Tibet. There was another report on July 3 which talked
about an armoured brigade drill at 5100 metres in Tibet to test "combat
readiness". State media said the drills included "the quick delivery
of troops and different military units working together on joint attacks".
Radar units "identifying enemy aircraft and soldiers using anti-aircraft
artillery to annihilate targets" were also tested, reports said. The
official Xinhua News Agency reported from Lhasa that the drill also included
the PLA's most advanced battle tank, the Type 96B and was aimed at testing
"full combat readiness".</span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Pangong
Tso Incursion Bid</span></b></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Indian border guards
foiled an attempt by Chinese soldiers to enter India's territory on the north
bank of Pangong Tso (Lake) in Ladakh on 15<sup>th</sup> August 2017, reported
PTI, quoting officials.</span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Soldiers of the People's
Liberation Army (PLA) tried to enter the Indian side in two areas – Finger Four
and Finger Five – twice between 6 am and 9 am. (The Finger Four area in the
region has been a bone of contention between India and China as both claim it
to be a part of their territory).</span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">But on both the
occasions their attempts were thwarted by alert Indian troops, they said.</span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">After the Chinese
troopers found their path blocked by Indian soldiers who formed a human chain,
they began hurling stones, prompting swift retaliation by Indian border guards.</span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Personnel from both
sides received minor injuries and the situation was brought under control after
the customary banner drill under which both sides hold banners before stepping
back to their respective positions.</span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">The stand-off lasted 30
minutes, after which the forces pulled back.</span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">The skirmish along the
border comes at a time when the countries are locked in a face-off in the
Doklam area of the Sikkim sector. The standoff has been ongoing for more than
50 days, after Indian troops stopped the Chinese Army from building a road in
the area.</span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Clearly there is a lot
of belligerence in the language and provocative actions in the form of incursions
and fire drills in the Tibetan Autonomous Region leaving very little room for
negotiations to resolve the ongoing impasse. </span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Almost all the Indian
electronic media channels have been referring to the Chinese military exercises
in the Tibetan region as part of its “psych ops” and that there have been no
large-scale PLA troop movement in the area suggestive of aggressive intent.
Should India dismiss the tone and tenor of the statements of the Chinese as
mere “psych ops?” According to a recent article in the Washington Post, India
and China were perilously close to a military conflict. Analysts say that there
is a potential for armed clashes elsewhere along the India-China border. PLA
could indulge in shallow incursions – the PLA could try something in eastern
Ladakh as was seen at Pangong Tso or eastern Arunachal Pradesh or Lipulekh Pass
and Barahoti in the central sector (Himachal-Uttarakhand). <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Experts’
views based on the ground situation</span></b></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">A few of the former
senior officers of the Indian army believe that the standoff may lead to
skirmishes and not a full-fledged war between India and China. They are of the
view that the Chinese may create other trouble spots, meaning thereby
incursions in other sectors, in order to force India to withdraw from Doklam. </span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Buttressing the analysis
of the Generals, sources, well aware about the Chinese border informed ANI that
there has not been any significant movement of military forces in the Tibetan
region in the last two months. The sources also added that for India the
tipping point will be when there's a significant troop movement across the
eleven bridges that join the northern parts of the 1,100 kilometers of Tsangpo
with the southern part of Tibet. The PLA’s war rhetoric has not so far
translated to large-scale mobilization or deployment of troops on the ground.</span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">China has deployed about
15-16 divisions along the Line of Actual Control starting from the Karakoram
Pass up to the Arunachal Pradesh (LAC 3,488 km). This entire area comes under
the Western Theatre Command of the Chinese People's Liberation Army. In case of
the war, China can also move four to five divisions, which are stationed in the
Xinjiang province, in the north of the Jammu and Kashmir, to cover the Ladakh
sector. </span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">There has been no
unusual movement by the Chinese at the LAC since last two months. Talking to
ANI, they explained it as Chinese tactics to pressurise India. </span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">In
the event of an armed conflict….</span></b></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Iskander Rehman, a
senior fellow at Pell Center for International Relations and Public Policy at Salve Regina University has in his paper for the Naval War College Review
titled <b>“A Himalayan Challenge: India’s Conventional Deterrent and the Role of
Special Operations Forces along the Sino-Indian Border” </b>outlined four factors
that is likely to shape an India –China conflict. Firstly India has far greater
concentration of troops close to the border as compared to China; China
stations a limited number of troops in its interior in Tibet. Secondly, insofar
as the climate and terrain are concerned, with the exception of parts of Ladakh
and Sikkim it is rather difficult for India to conduct mechanized warfare. On
the other hand China has distinct advantages for surveillance and use of
artillery. The high altitude and extreme cold affect military equipment
including weaponry. Thirdly, there is considerable disparity in the
infrastructure – the Chinese have developed highways and rail network which can
facilitate the movement of PLA troops and equipment quite rapidly. Fourthly,
China has one unified Western Theatre Command (WTC)<a href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=8101059815715683400#_ftn1" name="_ftnref1" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn1;" title=""><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">[1]</span></span></a>,
while the responsibility of securing India’s territorial integrity along the
Chinese border are distributed between four regional army and air force
commands. Thus the author is suggesting about the possible problems of
coordination between the various commands and arms in the event of a conflict.</span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Coming to the military
infrastructure in Tibet, China has five operational air fields. </span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">In addition, there are
four-five landing strips, which may not be able to hold operations due to the
lack of operational capabilities. </span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Defending the nearly
4,000 km-long Line of Actual Control (LAC) with India is the Lhasa-based
Western Theatre Command of the Chinese army, a sprawling military formation spread
across 4 provinces including the Tibetan Autonomous Region, where the drills
were held. The command includes elements of the Chinese air force and its
rocket (missile) forces.<br />
<br />
In the event of an escalation, China can use its massive railway infrastructure
to bring in additional troops. That has not happened. Since 2009, China has
been training in Transregional Support Operations: shifting men and weapons
between regions in training exercises.</span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">According
to a study carried out by Kevin McCauley for Jamestown Foundation, the primary
border areas under dispute are the Chinese-occupied Aksai Chin in the west, and
Arunachal Pradesh in the east controlled by India.</span></i></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">“The
Sino-Indian disputed borders represent isolated high-altitude regions with
difficult terrain and weather conditions presenting problems for troops,
weapons and equipment. Ground combat will occur mainly along roads that
normally follow valleys or ridges, limiting support and cooperation between
forces operating on different axes. The lack of cross-terrain mobility limits
the ability of ground forces to conduct penetrating or outflanking operations
against enemy forces. PLA publications stress airmobile landings in the enemy
rear area to overcome the restricted terrain and enemy defensive positions.
Special operations forces available to the WTC would represent highly qualified
units to operate in the enemy rear area to disrupt operations and attack
vulnerable lines of communications. The high-altitude reduces aviation
performance and lift capabilities, and increases maintenance requirements on
equipment in general, although the thin air increases the range of projectiles
and shrapnel. Weather conditions would mostly limit air operations to June
through September. The 1962 Sino-Indian War was fought in October and November
without air support. Cold high-plateau regions place increases requirements on
engineering and support operations, and the thin air is difficult for the
troops even after acclimation. This situation reduces unit combat capabilities
and increases non-combat losses. Training new recruits could affect an
operation depending on the timing. New recruits would likely achieve a minimal
operational capability to conduct small unit combat by late spring, which
should be adequate for the restricted terrain which will limit maneuver and
dictate primarily small unit operations. Depending on the timing of the crisis,
the PLA could decide to delay mobilization of soldiers in the WTC to retain
full combat capability of units.</span></i></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">The
Aksai Chin border terrain mock-up at the Qingtongxia Combined Arms Tactical
Training Bases (CATTB) depicts mostly Chinese occupied territory with only a
small portion of Indian controlled terrain. This appears to indicate a focus on
a Joint Border Counterattack Campaign in response to an Indian military
incursion. However, the exact purpose of the large terrain model is unclear.
The border counterattack campaign was originally considered an Army offensive
campaign, although some PLA books now refer to it as a joint campaign. This
campaign includes initial border defense actions with a transition to the
offense to regain lost territory and restore the situation. The two mountain
brigades and independent mechanized brigade are the closest ground forces to
Arunachal Pradesh, although the 13th Group Army trains in mountain warfare and
could deploy as needed. While no PLA forces are permanently garrisoned in the
Aksai Chin area, it is likely that the mechanized infantry division in Hotan
would deploy to this area. Air and missile strikes would support the ground
operations to annihilate and expel invading enemy forces depending on the
weather, or as in the Sino-Indian Border War operations could consist of mostly
ground operations.”<a href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=8101059815715683400#_ftn2" name="_ftnref2" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn2;" title=""><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">[2]</span></span></span></a></span></i></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Chinese war planning has
traditionally placed a heavy emphasis on preemptive strike as a means of
seizing the initiative and unsettling the enemy. The PLA operations in Korea,
against India in 1962 and Vietnam in 1979 have been categorized as defensive
counter attacks although China had been the aggressor in each of these
conflicts. For Chinese thinkers there is no clear conceptual firewall
separating defensive grand strategies from offensive military strategies or
tactics. To the contrary, preemptive military action is an integral part of the
Chinese concept of escalation management or war control.</span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Writings have emphasized
on concentration of “elite forces and sharp arms” and the importance of gaining
initiative from striking first and fighting a quick battle to force a quick
resolution. Thus in the event of an escalation to armed conflict, China is
likely to rely on its air power, airborne operations and Special Operation
Forces (SOF) operating behind enemy (Indian) lines to gain the upper hand. This
is the tactic that the PLA may adopt in the event of a short military conflict.
Thus, there may not be significant troop movement across the eleven bridges
that join the northern parts of the 1,100 kilometers of Tsangpo with the
southern part of Tibet as stated above. According to Rehman PLA SOF would be
assigned key roles to assault vital enemy targets, paralyze enemy operational
systems, reduce enemy operational capabilities and interfere, delay or disrupt
enemy’s operational activities to create favourable conditions for its main
force units. A former senior officer of the Indian Army had stated that if a
divisional size attack is launched in Tawang, then Chinese could employ its SOF
units to cut off all routes for buildup of reserves, raid artillery and
logistic locations. The deep induction of SOFs for providing early warnings and
information on the movement of Indian reserves could also be tasked.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">India has closely
monitored the development and modernization of China’s airborne assault
capabilities in the form of PLAAF’s 15<sup>th</sup> Airborne Corps. The Corps
Headquarters is at Xiagon and it comprises of three divisions (with over 35,000
troops) with a light artillery and mechanized component. The Central Military
Commission accorded it priority for modernization and its capabilities were
upgraded by the induction of the Y-20 heavy aircraft. This Corps is considered
vital to the War Zone Campaign Concept and likely to be employed for disruptive
deep strikes. PLA has carried out large-scale airborne exercises in the Tibet
Autonomous Region in the past few years. Thus unlike large-scale infantry
operations in 1962, the Chinese may use Special Operation Forces and air
assault forces extensively.</span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">The
PLA could conduct a Mountain Offensive Campaign or possibly a Joint Fire Strike
Campaign if Beijing issued orders for offensive operations. A Joint Fire Strike
campaign would support the border counterattack or mountain offensive, but
could also represent an independent campaign. The terrain, weather, and
difficult engineering and comprehensive support conditions restraining the
deployment and sustainment of forces could make a joint fire strike appear more
advantageous to a mountain offensive. A mountain offensive would require a
substantial advantage in the correlation of forces for the attacker operating
under terrain and weather restrictions. As an independent campaign, a joint
fire strike could represent punitive strikes against key Indian targets. A
joint fire strike campaign is a long-range precision strike by long-range
rocket, missile and air forces with the objective to destroy important enemy
targets, paralyze the enemy’s operational system of systems (integrated force
grouping), weaken the will to resist and destroy war potential, or create
conditions for other operations. The Chinese leadership could conclude that
conducting precision strikes against key Indian targets was preferable to
conducting difficult offensive ground operations where the defender has an
advantage.</span></i></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Lt. General H.S. Panag a
former Northern Army Commander in his blog “How will Chinese use of force in
Doklam manifest?” writes:<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"> “My assessment
is that the Chinese will neutralise our strategy by not getting involved in
“close infantry combat” over unfavourable terrain. If at all it chooses to
use force, its strategy will be based on technological warfare with
overwhelming use of PGM and cyber warfare. It will restrict its initial
offensive to the Doklam and Sikkim Sector, but would be prepared for escalation
to other sectors.</i></span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Such
an attack will come in the winter, when conventional ground operations are
severely restricted. PLA will carry out minimal mobilisation to cater to the
unlikely tactical offensive by India in the winter. A massive PGM attack will
be launched on our troops at Doklam and Doka La using cruise missiles and
artillery after pulling out its own troops to safety.</span></i></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Simultaneously,
a massive cyber attack will be launched to neutralize our command and control
systems and our fire power means. The strike will be with a declared limited
aim of evicting us from Doklam. Depending upon our strategic and operational
response, the PLA will escalate with similar attacks on more defensive
positions in Sikkim and other sectors.”</span></i><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"> <b>(cont'd)</b></span></span><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"></span></div>
<div style="mso-element: footnote-list;">
<div id="ftn1" style="mso-element: footnote;">
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
</div>
<div id="ftn2" style="mso-element: footnote;">
<div class="MsoNormal">
<a href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=8101059815715683400#_ftnref2" name="_ftn2" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn2;" title=""></a></div>
</div>
</div>
<div style="mso-element: footnote-list;">
<hr align="left" size="1" width="33%" />
<div id="ftn1" style="mso-element: footnote;">
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; margin-bottom: 12.0pt; text-align: left;">
<a href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=8101059815715683400#_ftnref1" name="_ftn1" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn1;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="font-family: "calibri" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; line-height: 115%;">[1]</span></span></span></span></a> <span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="line-height: 115%;">In
February 2016, China announced a major military rezoning that merged the former
Chengdu and Lanzhou Military Regions into one unified Western Theatre Command.</span></span></span></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">
</span><span style="font-size: x-small;">
</span></span></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">
</span></span></span><br />
<div id="ftn2" style="mso-element: footnote;">
<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">
</span></span></span><br />
<div class="MsoFootnoteText">
<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><a href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=8101059815715683400#_ftnref2" name="_ftn2" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="line-height: 115%;">[2]</span></span></span></a> China’s Western Theater Command – Kevin
McCauley, Jamestown Foundation</span></span></span></div>
</div>
</div>
Kumarhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02571503236070897848noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8101059815715683400.post-1585623845069305362017-07-01T06:16:00.001-07:002017-08-24T22:57:49.475-07:00A Perspective on the Sino-Indian Border Dispute<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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</xml><![endif]--><i><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">(Note: This post was originally written in 2008. It has been revised in the light of the on-going standoff on the Sikkim border)</span></i><br />
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<br />
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<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><i>The whole gamut of Sino-Indian relations ha<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif";">s</span> revolved
around the unresolved boundary row between the two neighbours, culminating in
the 1962 conflict. Years later there appeared to be a thaw in relations with
trade ties between the two countries improving. However, the relations have been
far from normal and India had more than adequate reasons to be suspicious of
Chinese intentions and motives particularly in relation to the border issue. And the incursions and wanton provocations by the PLA have not helped matters</i></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">It is necessary to delve into history in order to determine
why resolution of this dispute has been difficult.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">India and China have for long found it difficult to resolve
the border dispute which has impeded normal ties between the two Asian giants
for about four and half decades. The cause of the conflict in 1962 was a
dispute over the sovereignty of the widely-separated Aksai Chin (in Kashmir)
and Tawang in Arunachal Pradesh border regions. Tawang district is located
around latitude 27° 45’ N and longitude 90° 15’ E in North-West Arunachal
Pradesh. Tawang was the scene of intense fighting during the 1962 Sino-Indian
War. Chinese troops had then occupied Tawang and destroyed portions of the
monastry. After the Chinese troops withdrew, Tawang was once again under Indian
administration. Aksai Chin in Kashmir’s Ladakh region is the other disputed
territory which is at present under the control of the Chinese. This article
primarily focuses only on the disputed border area in Tawang, Arunachal
Pradesh.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">The core issue</span></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"> </span></b><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"> </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">The status of Tibet is central to the border dispute for the
simple reason that for two millennia, there never was a border between India
and China. Lt Cmdr Calvin James Bernard of the US Navy in his paper titled
“China-India Border War (1962)” stated that the roots of the conflict goes back
to the 18th century, when both China and British India asserted claims to
desolate, remote mountain areas between China and India. Military expeditions,
intrigue and unproductive diplomatic exchanges marked decades of relations
between the two countries. Rather than resolving the border issue, Chinese and
British Indian actions only set the stage for conflict.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">According to Mohan Guruswamy, the roots of India’s problem
with China go back a couple of centuries when Emperor Napoleon and Tsar
Alexander met in July 1807. As the Russian empire began its eastward expansion,
which many felt would culminate in the conquest of India, there was a shadow
contest for political ascendancy between the British and Russian empires. The
Russians’ desire for an empire and a warm water port did not diminish and so
the game continued. The British response to meet the Russian threat was to
establish a forward defensive line in the northern region so that a Russian
thrust could be halted well before the plains of Hindustan. This called for
making Afghanistan and Tibet into buffer states and for fixing suitable and
convenient borders with these states. In other words, British India did not
have a border with China.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">It is only in October 1950, when Communist China’s troops
entered Tibet to 'liberate' the Roof of the Word that suddenly India acquired a
new neighbour. Tibet was always a buffer between the Chinese and the British
Empire. In 1914 at Simla an agreement came to be signed between the Dalai
Lama's Representative and Sir Henry McMahon to define the border between Tibet
and India. The McMahon Line came into being. The border agreement was arrived
at bilaterally during the tripartite Convention between British India, China
and Tibet. Though the Chinese subsequently refused to ratify the Convention,
they did not object to the bilateral accord between Delhi and Lhasa. The
Chinese were more concerned by the demarcation of their border with Eastern
Tibet. The Chinese Premier Zhou Enlai (or Chou-en-lai) convinced Nehru that the
British were 'imperialists' and therefore all treaties or agreements signed by
them were 'imperialist treaties.' The inference drawn by the clever Chinese
premier was that the McMahon line was an imperialist creation and therefore not
acceptable by New China: The Chinese Premier conveniently presumed and told
India's ambassador to China K N Panikkar that India had no intention of
claiming special rights arising from the unequal treaties of the past. Nehru
while concurring that the British were imperialists could not follow Zhou's
conclusion on the McMahon Line. However, he did not want to raise the issue
first. Since nothing was heard from the Chinese side about the issue of the
frontier, Nehru deduced that McMahon Line was a foregone conclusion.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">In 1954 the Panchsheel Agreement (known as Agreement on
Trade and Intercourse between Tibet Region of China and India) came to be
signed between the two countries. This agreement too was silent about the
border.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">The Chinese Premier Zhou did not bring up the topic of the
border till the end of the fifties. And by that time it was a bit too late for
India as the Aksai Chin was fully in possession of the Liberation Army. The
Chinese stand was unequivocal that it had never accepted the McMahon line and
NEFA belonged to them.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Zhou's visit to India in 1960 was followed by several rounds
of detailed discussions which were held between June and December. While India
presented detailed maps and documents proving its claims, the Chinese hardly
gave any evidence of their 'possessions.'</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Could India have averted the 1962 War?</span></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Thus by failing to negotiate with the Chinese on the border
through the fifties, India lost the opportunity to settle the contentious issue
once and for all. According to Col. (retd) Anil Athale, another opportunity
(which was missed by India) to avoid the conflict came in December 1960 when
Chinese Premier Zhou Enlai made a brief stopover in Delhi. Under the so-called
'Krishna Menon Plan' it was mooted that India would lease the Aksai Chin area
to China and in return the Chinese would lease the strategic (from the Indian
point of view) Chumbi valley that is like a dagger pointed at the line of
communication with Assam and the Northeast. This would have been a very fair
deal as the Aksai Chin area, besides being strategically useless to India, was
also very difficult to defend. But it is believed that under the pressure from
the right wing of the Congress and fear of vociferous opposition, Nehru
rejected it. It is difficult to say now whether the course of history would
have been different had India gone ahead with this proposal.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">The border war of October 1962</span></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">The war itself was limited both in terms of place and time
duration. Fighting started on 10th October 1962 and ended on 20th November
1962. The cease-fire came into effect at 0000 on 21st November 1962. Actual
fighting was limited to 3 distinct areas, namely Walong, Tawang and Aksai Chin.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Post 1962</span></b><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Nathu La-September 1967</span></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">In 1965, two significant events took place on the
Sino-Indian border. The first was the warning issued to India about Chinese
sheep not being allowed to graze on their side of the border by India. This
happened in September 1965 when the Indo-Pak war was simmering on India’s
western border.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">At the same time, in September-December 1965, the PLA sent
probing missions on the entire Sikkim-Tibet border. According to one account,
there were seven border intrusions on the Sikkim-Tibet border between September
7 and December 12, 1965, involving the PLA. In all these border incursions, the
Indian side responded “firmly” without provoking the other. Though details of
casualties of these PLA border incursions are not reported, there were reports
indicating that the PLA suffered “heavy” casualties against “moderate” loss by
India.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Two years later, in September 1967, in spite of their
setbacks in 1965, the PLA launched a direct attack on the lndian armed forces
at Nathu La, on the Sikkim-Tibet border. The six-day “border skirmishes” from
September 7-8 to 13, 1967, had all the elements of a high drama, including
exchange of heavy artillery fire, and the PLA soldiers tried to cross the
border in large numbers. Again the attack was repulsed at all points by the
Indian troops.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">The Sumdorong Chu Incident-Operation Falcon
October 1986</span></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">In 1986 China decided to flex its muscles again with India.
In mid-1986, it came to the notice of India that the PLA had built a helipad at
Wandung in Sumdorong Chu Valley referred to as Sangduoluo He in the Chinese
media in Arunachal Pradesh. India reacted swiftly and the PLA had an
eyeball-to-eyeball confrontation with the India Army in Sumdorong Chu Valley of
Arunchal Pradesh in August 1986. After a week of tense moments both sides
mutually agreed to withdraw their forces inside their respective territories
and create a no man’s land. India's then Army chief General Sundarji decided to
use the IAF’s new Russian-made heavy lift MI-26 helicopters to air land a
brigade at a place called Zemithang, 90 kilometres from Tawang, south of the
Sino-Indian border. </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">The airlift took place between 18 and 20 October 1986 (the
very dates which marked the beginning of the 1962 Conflict) in this sector.
They took up ppositions on Hathung La ridge overlooking Sumdorong Chu along
with three other key mountain features. In 1962, the Chinese held the high
ground; this time the Indians.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">With China scrambling to rush forces to the region, both
sides began a general mobilization along the entire border. Here again, the
Indian General had a few surprises.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Innovatively using the heavy lift transport aircraft and
helicopters of the IAF including the IL-76 and AN-26, the Army placed T-72
tanks and infantry combat vehicles in the Demchok area of Ladakh and northern Sikkim.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">The Chinese fumbled for a response and subsequently, a
November 15 flag meeting calmed things down a bit. But now, India decided to
take the opportunity to covert Arunachal Pradesh, which was a centrally
administered territory till then, into a full-fledged state of the Indian Union.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">In August '87, Indian and Chinese troops moved their
respective posts slightly apart in the Sumdorong Chu Valley, following a
meeting of the field commanders. During the 8th round of border talks on
November '87, it was decided to upgrade the talks from the bureaucratic to the
political level. Following then Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi's visit to China in
1988, a Joint Working Group (JWG) was set up to discuss, among other things,
the alignment of the LAC. In 1993, an agreement was inked between the foreign
ministers of the two countries on the reduction of troops along the LAC. This
was possibly first of the Confidence Building Measures (CBMs). It was decided
to pull back from respective forward check posts in the Sumdorong Chu Valley
from a situation of "close confrontation" and in 1994, the Indian
External Affairs Ministry described the situation as one of "close
proximity" where the respective posts were 50-100 yards apart. Following
the JWG meeting in April 1995, the two sides agreed to a simultaneous
withdrawal of their troops from the four border posts - two Indian and two
Chinese - in the Sumdorong Chu Valley. As of June 1999, the valley was
unoccupied by either the Indian army or Chinese, and their respective posts in
the area were close to a kilometre apart.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">A View from China</span></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">According to a leading Chinese scholar on India Ma Jiali,
China's claim to the whole of Arunachal Pradesh may only be a negotiating ploy.
However, he added that the demand for Tawang might well be non-negotiable.
According to Ma Jiali, the disputed area in Arunachal Pradesh is very large.
Tawang was the birthplace of the 6th Dalai Lama, Tsangyang Gyatso. The Tibetan
people thus have very strong religious sentiments towards Tawang. It must be
noted that in 1938, the Survey of India published a map of Tibet, which showed
the Tawang tract as part of that country. Even the first edition of Jawaharlal
Nehru's Discovery Of India showed the Indo-Tibetan boundary as running at the
foot of the hills. The Tibetans did not accept this 'annexation' of the Tawang
tract and challenged the British attempts to expand their government into this
area. But they tacitly accepted the rest of the McMahon demarcation. It is
clear that, but for the Tawang tract, there is little basis for the Chinese
claim on the whole of Arunachal Pradesh. According to other Chinese scholars,
India should accept the Chinese view that McMahon Line was illegal and
unacceptable and once it is done, the border settlement would be easy. Scholars
have also warned that “substantial adjustments” would have to be made if the
border issue between India and China is to be resolved. The hint here is
towards major concessions by India on Tawang. As far as the other sector of
dispute, namely, Aksai Chin is concerned the Aksai Chin road is strategically
too important for the Chinese, as it is the only link between its two western
provinces of Tibet and Xinjiang. Thus the question of relinquishing the
occupation of this area does not arise. It is important to appreciate that
there have been subtle changes in the Chinese position on the border dispute.
At a point of time it was felt that the North-East was the bargaining chip or
the ‘pressure’ for a de jure control of Aksai Chin. Today, while Aksai Chin has
become non-negotiable, China seeks concessions from India on Tawang. The
pressure on Tawang has been kept up by raking up issues of the entire state of
Arunachal Pradesh and even Sikkim. China is in no hurry to resolve the issue.
One reason could be the repeated incursions into Tawang could provide
legitimacy to China for exercising de facto control over the territory. But at
the core is also the assessment that the time for striking a deal with India is
not now and when that would be would depend on how the mandarins assess the
respective strengths of the two sides and whether China holds the upper hand.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">The Sun Yuxi factor</span></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Just a week ahead of Chinese President Hu Jintao's state
visit to India in November 2006, Beijing's envoy to New Delhi Sun Yuxi claimed
that Arunachal Pradesh was a Chinese territory.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">“In our position the whole of what you call the state of
Arunachal Pradesh is Chinese territory, and Tawang (district) is only one place
in it. We are claiming all of that—that's our position,” he told the news
channel CNN-IBN just days ahead of the Chinese President’s visit to India.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Sun was the man who drove Beijing's policy of stirred up
tensions along the border in Arunachal. From incursions into the state, to
demolition of Indian army observation posts along the Bhutan border and
objections to road building in Sikkim, Sun carried out his mission with a
bullheadedness that drove South Block to silent fury and prompting them to
demand the recall of the envoy.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">The South Block was infuriated by Sun’s manipulation of the
bilateral talks on border issue: from Aksai Chin in Ladakh to thousands of
miles east in Arunachal, where India's insecurities ran the deepest.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">The Indian government angrily rejected the statement, and a
year later Sun was recalled. New Delhi conveyed to Beijing a message that
unless Sun was recalled, the Indian Prime Minister would not send a final list
of dates for his visit to China. The Prime Minister’s Office held its ground
despite China’s initial refusal to concede. Delhi may seem to have been one up
on the Chinese but it must be remembered that it could well be a case of two
steps forward and one step backward. It is important to note that the envoy
could not have taken a unilateral decision to claim the entire state of
Arunachal Pradesh. Surely, there was some sort of official backing for him to
make this provocative statement. Secondly, it took nearly a year for the
Chinese to concede to the Indian demand for withdrawing him. Sun’s statement
could very well be the unstated Chinese policy on the border issue. India can
ill-afford to ignore the Sun Yuxis of China's political set up.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Incursions</span></b><br />
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">According to the late B Raman, former Additional Secretary in the Cabinet Secretariat, there have been recurring instances of
innumerable border intrusions by the Chinese troops. Since the last decade there have been numerous incursions into Indian territory by PLA patrols. There have been air space violations as well by Chinese choppers flying in<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif";">to India's Uttarakhand region. According to the Strategic Affairs expert, Dr. Brahma Chellaney "</span></span><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Bite by kilometre-size bite, China is eating away at India’s
Himalayan borderlands. For decades, Asia’s two giants have fought a bulletless
war for territory along their high-altitude border. Recently, though, China has
become more assertive, underscoring the need for a new Indian containment
strategy."</span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">He further adds that on average, China launches one stealth incursion into India
every 24 hours. Kiren Rijiju, India’s minister of state for home affairs, says
the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) is actively intruding into vacant border space
with the objective of occupying it. And according to a former top official with
India’s Intelligence Bureau, India has lost nearly 2,000 sq. km to PLA
encroachments over the last decade.</span><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif";"> Strangely, India <span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif";">has downplayed these violations and very little visible ac<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif";">t<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif";">ion</span> has been taken against the intruding Chinese on the ground. </span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<i><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Sources: Articles by Lt. Col. (Retd) Anil
Athale, Claude Arpi, Mohan Guruswamy published in Rediff.com, V Natarajan
(Bharat Rakhshak), Manoj Joshi's Operation Falcon (The Quint), Sreedhar's
"China Becoming a Superpower and India's Options", Lt. Cmdr Calvin
James Bernard's paper - China-India Border War (1962), Wikipedia.</span></i><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
Kumarhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02571503236070897848noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8101059815715683400.post-11096924989003875702017-07-01T04:45:00.001-07:002017-07-03T05:56:14.098-07:00Analysis of the Standoff in Sikkim<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<i><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">The drums of war may not
have been beaten as yet. However, the standoff on the Sikkim border has
continued since early June of this year. A peaceful resolution does not appear
to be in sight with both sides locked in an eyeball to eyeball confrontation. </span></i></div>
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<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Genesis
of the Confrontation</span></b></div>
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<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">The Indian defence
establishment is opposed to <span class="newsincontext">China's attempts to
construct a road on the Doklam plateau</span> leading right up to the
Sikkim-Bhutan-Tibet tri-junction, which has emerged as the major flashpoint in the
ongoing face-off between the two armies in the remote border region. </span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-3l7Lpep-3G0/WVeJJPL5nFI/AAAAAAAAB1s/JoOJpgbiU8ESODgdcHoNxQimhOTHsDc3gCLcBGAs/s1600/Screen-Shot%2Bof%2BDoklam.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="638" data-original-width="478" height="640" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-3l7Lpep-3G0/WVeJJPL5nFI/AAAAAAAAB1s/JoOJpgbiU8ESODgdcHoNxQimhOTHsDc3gCLcBGAs/s640/Screen-Shot%2Bof%2BDoklam.png" width="476" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"> Source: https://thewire.in/153189/construction-doklam-will-harm-security-interests-india-tells-china/</span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">The Doklam plateau is
Bhutanese territory but China, which calls it Donglang, regularly sends its patrols
to the area to lay claim to it. Beijing is anxious to integrate the plateau in
its adjoining Chumbi Valley. China is desperate to incorporate the plateau in
its adjoining Chumbi Valley, which is shaped like a dagger jutting into India,
separating Sikkim from Bhutan for geo-strategic reasons. </span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-HWk6S4vtnUk/WVeGzoUHmcI/AAAAAAAAB1Y/Qsbyfhu6MfAfedo3rht97zBUQvBwPA8pQCLcBGAs/s1600/ChinaJPG.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="383" data-original-width="615" height="247" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-HWk6S4vtnUk/WVeGzoUHmcI/AAAAAAAAB1Y/Qsbyfhu6MfAfedo3rht97zBUQvBwPA8pQCLcBGAs/s400/ChinaJPG.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">China claims a total of
about 764 square kilometers of Bhutanese territory – in the North West about
269 square kilometers constituting Doklam, Sinchulung, Dramana and Shakhatoe in
Samste, Haa and Paro districts; and in the Central parts about 495 square kilometers
constituting the Pasamlung and the Jakarlung valley in the Wangdue Phodrang
district.</span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">In 1996, China offered Bhutan
a “resolution package deal” proposing an exchange of Pasamlung and Jakarlung
valleys aggregating an area of 495 square kilometers in Central Bhutan with the
pasture land of Doklam, Sinchulung, Dramana and Shakhatoe, amounting to 269 square
kilometers in North Western Bhutan. However, Bhutan rejected it. In 1998, Bhutan
and China signed a peace agreement promising to maintain peace and tranquility
on the Bhutan-China Border Areas. </span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">China violated this
peace agreement by trying to construct roads in Doklam. According to Bhutanese ambassador
to India, Doklam is a disputed territory and there is a written agreement
between the two countries that pending the final resolution of the boundary
issue, peace and tranquility should be maintained in the area. China thus
cannot describe the area as a part of its territory.</span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Strategic
Dimensions</span></b></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Chumbi Valley is only 500 kilometres from Siliguri corridor
–</span><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"> </i><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">a place called</span><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif";">
</span></i><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">the
Chicken’s Neck which connects India to North East India and Nepal to Bhutan. </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">This explains the
rationale behind the aforesaid package deal that China has offered to Bhutan –
Central areas for Bhutan in exchange the North-Western areas, which lie next to
the Chumbi Valley tri-junction, for China.</span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
</div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">The Chumbi Valley has
enormous strategic importance for India in the sense that dominance here by
China will adversely affect the stability in the Siliguri corridor, vital not
only for the linkage between Indian mainland and the north-eastern Indian
states but also to ensure security for Kolkata and the north Bihar plains.</span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">And this is all the more
important after China opened a railway network in August 2014 connecting Lhasa
with Shigatse, a small town near the Indian border in Sikkim. China now wants
to extend this line up to Yadong, situated at the mouth of the Chumbi valley.
And once this is done, potential threats to the Siliguri corridor from China
will take a menacing proportion.</span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">India-Bhutan relations
are guided by the Treaty of Friendship and Cooperation, signed in 1949 and
renewed in 2007. Bhutan and India are supposed to consult each other closely on
foreign affairs and defence matters.</span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">The Indian Army has
always been present in Bhutan and is posted on many China-Bhutan border posts.
The Indian Army maintains a training mission in Bhutan, known as the Indian
Military Training Team (IMTRAT), not to speak of the exemplary work done in
that country by the Border Roads Organisation (BRO), a subdivision of the
Indian Army Corps of Engineers.</span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Besides, the Royal
Bhutan Army relies on the Eastern Command of the Indian Air Force for air
support during emergencies. In 1958, the then Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru
had declared in the Indian Parliament that any aggression against Bhutan would
be seen as aggression against India.</span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">In order to get a bigger
hold on the area and a wider depth in the event of a military deployment are
attempting to shift down the tri-junction point in the Chumbi valley by almost
12 kilometres.</span><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif";"> </span>China thus claims Gyemochen
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<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">The difference of 18 kms
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<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">'The Chinese troops have even been patrolling areas up to a
place called Gemochin, where the Royal Bhutanese Army has its posts and PLA
troops marched to their positions and reportedly even confronted them for being
in their territory,' the sources said.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">From the Chinese Army's point of view, the Chumbi valley has
to be widened as they want to move closer to the strategically important
Chicken's Neck corridor in Siliguri - which is under the watch of Army's 33
Corps headquarters situated in Sukna in West Bengal.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">The Indian establishment
is obviously concerned about Chinese incursions into the Bhutanese territory.
For one, India will lose its "strategic advantage" in the region if
the road is constructed. </span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">According to a source, "Though
our troops don't hold the plateau, the watershed they hold dominates it. The
Dhok La, in which we are present, opens into the Chumbi Valley."</span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Moreover, China can
militarily threaten the strategically-vulnerable and narrow Siliguri Corridor
just about 50-km away in West Bengal — the so-called "Chicken's Neck"
that connects the rest of India with the north-east states — if China manages
to extend the road up to the tri-junction.</span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">"China already has
a couple of roads coming up to a certain point in the Chumbi Valley. If one of
them is extended till the tri-junction, through what we consider is Bhutanese
territory, it will help the PLA in military logistics and maneuverability, like
rapidly moving artillery and other equipment, in the case of a conflict with
India," said the source.</span><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"> </span></b></div>
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<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Cartographic
Aggression</span></b></div>
<br />
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
</div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
</div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">The Chinese have adopted one strategy – embark on
a cartographic aggression, followed by a physical aggression on the ground. This
is the reason why the Chinese are </span><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">reluctant to share their final official
Claim Line of 1960 of their perception of LAC, as this gives them the freedom
to engage in further cartographic aggression leading to physical confrontation. </span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-p0Ke76_nn8w/WVeHo890fnI/AAAAAAAAB1g/mv67ntHktt8LcT_29av3brXoXo0yPc9KQCLcBGAs/s1600/china_video_647_070117102441.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="404" data-original-width="647" height="248" src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-p0Ke76_nn8w/WVeHo890fnI/AAAAAAAAB1g/mv67ntHktt8LcT_29av3brXoXo0yPc9KQCLcBGAs/s400/china_video_647_070117102441.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"> Source: http://indiatoday.intoday.in/story/china-releases-new-map-territorial-claims-stand-off-site/1/991733.html</span></div>
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<i><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Stepping up its claims
that India had "trespassed", China has now released a map showing the
site of the stand-off as well as China's territorial claims at the
India-China-Bhutan tri-junction that are in conflict with India's and Bhutan's
claims.</span></i></div>
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<i>
</i><br />
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<i><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">The map claims the
Indian Army crossed the border at Doka La pass, depicted with a blue arrow,
into the Doklam plateau which India and Bhutan see as Bhutanese territory but
is claimed by China.</span></i></div>
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<i>
</i><br />
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<i><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">The map, released on
Friday, also reveals China's substantial territorial claims at the tri-junction
that are conflicting with India's and Bhutan's. It shows that China fixes the
tri-junction far south of where India and Bhutan do, which explains the current
stand-off.</span></i></div>
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<br /></div>
<i>
</i><br />
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<i><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">WHAT THE MAP SHOWS</span></i></div>
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<br /></div>
<i>
</i><br />
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<i><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">The Chinese tri-junction,
marked by an arrow that claims it is under the 1890 Britain-China treaty, is at
the Mount Gipmochi. This is far south of where India and Bhutan mark the tri-junction,
which the map acknowledged with a dotted line.</span></i></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<i>
</i><br />
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<i><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">The area on the Doklam
plateau south of the dotted line is claimed by China, and it is here that
Beijing was building a road into what Bhutan sees as its territory, triggering
the stand-off with Bhutan and India.</span></i></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<i>
</i><br />
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<i><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">The Chinese Foreign
Ministry said on Friday: "The line commences at Mount Gipmochi on the
Bhutan frontier, and follows the above-mentioned water-parting to the point
where it meets Nepal territory. It is without any doubt that the spot where the
Indian border troops trespassed is on the Chinese side of the boundary."</span></i></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Indian
Reaction</span></b></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"> </span></b><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"> </span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">India, however, on 30<sup>th</sup>
June 2017, reminded China that building a road in this disputed area was a
violation. "India is deeply concerned at the recent Chinese actions and
has conveyed to the Chinese Government that such construction would represent a
significant change of status quo with serious security implications for
India," the Ministry of External Affairs said.</span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">"In this context,
the Indian side has underlined that the two Governments had in 2012 reached
agreement that the tri-junction boundary points between India, China and third
countries will be finalized in consultation with the concerned countries. Any
attempt, therefore, to unilaterally determine tri-junction points is in
violation of this understanding. Where the boundary in the Sikkim sector is
concerned, India and China had reached an understanding also in 2012
reconfirming their mutual agreement on the "basis of the alignment".
Further discussions regarding finalization of the boundary have been taking
place under the Special Representatives framework." </span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"></span><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">Conclusion</span></b></div>
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<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">India needs to call
China’s bluff. India through diplomatic channels and other outlets must expose
China’s cartographic aggression and must thwart the physical land grabbing carried
out by the Chinese (where it invariably uses civilian resources like herders to
settle on disputed territory and then follow it up with PLA control). And if
minimum use of force is required to be used, India must not hesitate to use it,
more so as a message than as a strategy. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Beijing understands the language of force and
bullet than of words.</span></div>
<br />
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
</div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
</div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<br />Kumarhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02571503236070897848noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8101059815715683400.post-28749064265607351472017-06-28T06:51:00.000-07:002017-06-28T06:51:17.706-07:00Chinese Needling in Sikkim<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<i><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">Note: This post must be read in conjunction with the
following posts on the subject:<br />
</span><a href="http://kumar-theloneranger.blogspot.in/2008/05/chinese-hand-in-finger-area-flashpoint.html">http://kumar-theloneranger.blogspot.in/2008/05/chinese-hand-in-finger-area-flashpoint.html</a><span class="reference-text"></span></i></div>
<i>
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<i><a href="http://kumar-theloneranger.blogspot.in/2008/05/finger-area-indian-response.html">http://kumar-theloneranger.blogspot.in/2008/05/finger-area-indian-response.html</a></i></div>
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<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">China’s recent
aggressive move on the Sikkim border is nothing short of provocative.
Destroying bunkers and suspending the Kailash Mansorovar yatra are hostile acts
and need to be dealt with in befitting manner.</span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">China is at it again;
doing what it knows best – a blend of restrained aggression by carrying out “innocuous
incursions into Indian territory” along with psychological warfare and
propaganda.</span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">In 2007 and 2008 PLA
troops made incursions in the small tract of land referred to as the Finger
Area <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>frequently — in 2008 itself about
50 Chinese transgressions had been reported in this area — and then started
building a road that crossed this tract of land. It is in this context, the
present standoff in the Sikkim- Bhutan-Tibet</span><span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif";"> </span><span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">tri-junction in Sikkim between the Indian troops
and the Chinese troops must be viewed.</span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">While the media focus
was on the Indian Prime Minister, Narendra Modi’s visit to Washington, tension
was brewing in Sikkim along the Tibet border with China. A highly questionable
version of the events put out by the Chinese Foreign Ministry claimed that
Indian border guards (probably referring to the Indo Tibetan Border Police or
the ITBP) had crossed the boundary and entered “Chinese territory” and
obstructed what was “normal activities” of the Chinese frontier forces in
Donglang area and that the Chinese had taken counter measures. And the Chinese
Defence Ministry accused Indian troops of objecting to the building of a road
in what it claimed to be Chinese territory. According to the PTI, the Chinese
troops were reported to have destroyed two make shift bunkers of the Indian
Army in the Lalten area of Doka La. (It needs to be mentioned that the PLA had
destroyed a make shift bunker in the same area of Doka La in 2008). While what
is being claimed as a counter measure may have occurred as part of the
time-tested tactic adopted by the Chinese, it is extremely unlikely that the ITBP
personnel (who do not carry arms in that area) would have carried out any
transgressions across the border. This again is part of the nefarious Chinese
propaganda.</span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">In order to exert
pressure on the Indians, the Chinese </span><span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">shut
down the Nathu La pass entry for Indian pilgrims travelling to Kailash Mansarovar
(a pilgrim site revered by Hindus, Buddhists and Jains) and called for the
“withdrawal of the Indian personnel who had overstepped and trespassed into
Chinese border." It is unclear whether the Chinese want a complete
withdrawal of Indian troops from the Indian side or only those whom the Chinese
have accused of crossing the border.</span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">The Chinese provocation may be attributed to the following
factors: One, China perceives a growing threat because of the close relations
between India and the US and the mutual defence cooperation which it finds
unsettling; two India in no uncertain terms snubbed Beijing on the ambitious
Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) because of its objections to the China-Pakistan
Economic Corridor (CPEC) that is slated to go through Pakistan Occupied Kashmir
(PoK); third; India is going ahead with a Afghan air corridor bypassing
Pakistan which the state-owned Global Times referred to as Indian stubbornness;
fourth, India ignoring Chinese objections allowed the Dalai Lama to visit
Tawang in April 2017, which it foolishly has been claiming to be part of
Southern Tibet. Lastly, according to Subir Bhowmick, a veteran journalist </span><span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Sikkim
is the only sector along the border where India has a tactical and terrain
advantage. India’s decision of raising the mountain strike corps, though mired
in financial uncertainties, has upped the ante. And hence the coercive tactics
adopted by the PLA.</span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">China is also concerned about the proposed purchase of 22
drones by India from the US. These drones will greatly enhance India’s surveillance
capability in the Indian Ocean where China has been making significant inroads
in the past few years.</span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Indian policy makers must understand one irrefutable fact
that China is an aggrandizing power, a state that would use any means possible
to grab territory. China has done it in 1962 and it virtually claims more than eighty
percent of the South China Sea through the means of a dubious historical nine-dash
line. According to the strategic affairs expert, China has been eating away at
India’s Himalayan borderlands. This is a fact, howsoever bitter it may seem.
China’s Global Times in its OP-ED has stated: </span><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">China
avoids making an issue of border disputes, which has indulged India's unruly
provocations. This time the Indian side needs to be taught the rules. </span></i></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">India
cannot afford a showdown with China on border issues. It lags far behind China
in terms of national strength and the so-called strategic support for it from
the US is superficial. China has no desire to confront India. Maintaining
friendly ties with New Delhi is Beijing's basic policy. But this must be based
on mutual respect. It's not time for India to display arrogance toward China.
India's GDP is only one-quarter of China's and its annual defense budget is
just one-third. Having a friendly relationship and cautiously handling border
issues with China is its best choice.</span></i> <span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><a href="http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1053801.shtml">http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1053801.shtml</a></span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">This piece can be interpreted as nothing but a warning exhorting
the PLA to teach India a lesson. China needs to be cautioned that it can
ill-afford a confrontation of any sort with India at a time when it is
unveiling the B&RI and more importantly 1962 is history and China cannot
expect India to commit the same blunders it committed at that time to be repeated. Diplomatic niceties do
not work with a bully like China. It is time for India to bare its fangs in order to deter China from carrying out its incursions. </span></div>
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Kumarhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02571503236070897848noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8101059815715683400.post-91264228263381728562017-06-04T09:03:00.001-07:002017-06-04T09:03:23.696-07:00London Bridge and Borough Market Terror Attacks<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><i>The United Kingdom is facing the brunt of jihadi terrorism. Instead of being in denial, the government needs to introduce radical measures which may not be entirely in consonance with Western values of freedom and rule of law.</i></span></div>
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<span style="color: black; font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif; margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-uGIscAIqdG8/WTOMJhfC9jI/AAAAAAAABx0/HrIx5QiA8wIwmZrt6PZx80Lc-XGDDUMeACEw/s1600/41145A5B00000578-4569638-image-a-130_1496537907589.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="835" data-original-width="962" height="345" src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-uGIscAIqdG8/WTOMJhfC9jI/AAAAAAAABx0/HrIx5QiA8wIwmZrt6PZx80Lc-XGDDUMeACEw/s400/41145A5B00000578-4569638-image-a-130_1496537907589.jpg" width="400" /></a></span></div>
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<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 13.5pt;">(Source: <a href="http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4570082/SAS-Blue-Thunder-unit-lands-helicopter-London-Bridge.html">http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4570082/SAS-Blue-Thunder-unit-lands-helicopter-London-Bridge.html</a>)<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 13.5pt;"><br /></span></div>
<div style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 13.5pt; line-height: 115%;">Attackers
drove a van at high speed into pedestrians on London Bridge before going on a stabbing
spree in the nearby Borough Market area on Saturday 3<sup>rd</sup> June 2017 at
about 2210 hrs in what British authorities described as terrorist incidents. The
attack lasted only about eight minutes before which the jihadis were neutralized.
Authorities urged the people on Twitter to “run, hide, tell” if they were
caught in an attack. Latest reports suggested that about seven people were
killed and several injured and three attackers were also shot dead by the
police.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0in;">
<br /></div>
<div style="line-height: 115%; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;">
<span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 13.5pt; line-height: 115%;">The
attacks come days ahead of a June 8 election and less than two weeks after a
suicide bomber killed 22 people at a pop concert by U.S. singer Ariana Grande
in Manchester in northern England. Though there was no immediate claim of
responsibility, it does not require a rocket scientist to determine who the
attackers were.</span><span style="font-size: 13.5pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="line-height: 115%; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;">
<br /></div>
<div style="line-height: 115%; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;">
<span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 13.5pt; line-height: 115%;">The
BBC showed a photograph of two possible London attackers shot by police, one of
whom had canisters strapped to his body.</span><span style="font-size: 13.5pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="line-height: 115%; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;">
<br /></div>
<div style="line-height: 115%; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;">
<span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 13.5pt; line-height: 115%;">A
Reuters reporter said some time after the attack began that he had heard loud
bangs near the Borough Market area.</span><span style="font-size: 13.5pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="line-height: 115%; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;">
<br /></div>
<div style="line-height: 115%; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;">
<span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 13.5pt; line-height: 115%;">Witnesses
described a white van veering into pedestrians near London Bridge and knocking
over several people.</span><span style="font-size: 13.5pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="line-height: 115%; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;">
<br /></div>
<div style="line-height: 115%; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;">
<span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 13.5pt; line-height: 115%;">“A
van came from London Bridge itself, went between the traffic light system and
rammed it towards the steps,” a taxi driver told the BBC. “It knocked loads of
people down.</span><span style="font-size: 13.5pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0in;">
<br /></div>
<div style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 13.5pt; line-height: 115%;">“Then
three men got out with hunting knives, 12 inches long and shouting<span class="apple-converted-space"> </span>"this is for Allah"<span class="apple-converted-space"> </span>went randomly along Borough High
Street stabbing people at random.”</span><span style="font-size: 13.5pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0in;">
<br /></div>
<div style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 13.5pt; line-height: 115%;">Islamic
State earlier on Saturday sent out a call on instant messaging service Telegram
urging its followers to launch attacks with trucks, knives and guns against
“Crusaders” during the Muslim holy month of Ramadan.</span><span style="font-size: 13.5pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0in;">
<br /></div>
<div style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 13.5pt; line-height: 115%;">An
elite Special Air Service - SAS - unit nick named 'Blue Thunder' is believed to have landed on London
Bridge following the attack. Blue Thunder, who act on orders from the Home
Secretary, are a 70-man strong unit formed after the 2015 Paris attacks and
trained in tackling domestic terror scenarios.</span><span style="font-size: 13.5pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0in;">
<br /></div>
<div style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 13.5pt; line-height: 115%;">Blue
Thunder’s name comes from the unmarked blue Eurocopter Dauphin helicopter in
which they travel. Photographs appeared to capture two of the aircraft landing
on London Bridge shortly after the vehicle and stabbing rampage.</span><span style="font-size: 13.5pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0in;">
<br /></div>
<div style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 13.5pt; line-height: 115%;">The
civilian style helicopter is used to transport Special Forces troops around the
country quickly and covertly. </span><span style="font-size: 13.5pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0in;">
<br /></div>
<div style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 13.5pt; line-height: 115%;">Similar
attacks, in Berlin, Nice, Brussels and Paris, have been carried out by
militants over the past couple of years.</span><span style="font-size: 13.5pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0in;">
<br /></div>
<div style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 13.5pt; line-height: 115%;">“Following
updates from police and security officials, I can confirm that the terrible
incident in London is being treated as a potential act of terrorism,” Prime
Minister Theresa May said.</span><span style="font-size: 13.5pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0in;">
<br /></div>
<div style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 13.5pt; line-height: 115%;">London’s
river Thames police said it was working with the lifeboat rescue service to
help evacuate people caught up in the attack, described by police as a
terrorist incident.</span><span style="font-size: 13.5pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0in;">
<br /></div>
<div style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 13.5pt; line-height: 115%;">U.S.
President Donald Trump took to Twitter to offer U.S. help to Britain. The White
House said he had been briefed on the incidents by his national security team.</span><span style="font-size: 13.5pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0in;">
<br /></div>
<div style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 13.5pt; line-height: 115%;">One
woman told Reuters she saw what appeared to be three people with knife wounds
and possibly their throats cut at London Bridge at the Thames river. Reuters
was unable to immediately verify her account.</span><span style="font-size: 13.5pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0in;">
<br /></div>
<div style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 13.5pt; line-height: 115%;">STABBINGS
ON THE STREET</span><span style="font-size: 13.5pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0in;">
<br /></div>
<div style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 13.5pt; line-height: 115%;">Police
said they fired shots after reports of stabbings in the nearby Borough Market
area. They also responded to an incident in the Vauxhall area further west, but
later said it was unconnected to the van and knife attacks.</span><span style="font-size: 13.5pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0in;">
<br /></div>
<div style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 13.5pt; line-height: 115%;">Streets
around London Bridge and Borough Market, fashionable districts packed with bars
and restaurants, would have been busy with people on a Saturday night out. BBC
showed dozens of people, evidently caught up in the attack, being escorted
through a police cordon with their hands on their heads.</span><span style="font-size: 13.5pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0in;">
<br /></div>
<div style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 13.5pt; line-height: 115%;">BBC
radio said witnesses saw people throwing tables and chairs at the perpetrators
of the attack to protect themselves.</span><span style="font-size: 13.5pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0in;">
<br /></div>
<div style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 13.5pt; line-height: 115%;">According
to one witness, she saw a speeding white van veering into pedestrians at London
Bridge. That witness told the BBC that the van hit five to six people. Reuters
television footage showed dozens of emergency vehicles in the area around
London Bridge. <span style="background: white;">There were unconfirmed reports
that it was a B&Q and Hertz van.</span></span><span style="font-size: 13.5pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0in;">
<br /></div>
<div style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 13.5pt; line-height: 115%;">The
incident bore similarities to a March 2017 attack on Westminster Bridge, west
of London Bridge, in which a Muslim man Khalid Masood killed five people after
driving into a crowd of pedestrians before stabbing a police officer in the
grounds of Parliament.</span><span style="font-size: 13.5pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0in;">
<br /></div>
<div style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 13.5pt; line-height: 115%;">Instead
of being in denial, the government needs to introduce radical measures which
may not be entirely democratic. These measures may include but may not be
limited to deporting hate preachers, closing down places of worship where
radicalism is fostered, curbing entry of so-called refugees/migrants and
eliminating jihadis who have participated in the conflict in Syria/Iraq and
returned to the UK. It is better to eliminate the terrorists before they cause
mayhem than after carnage has taken place as it happened in the Borough market.</span><span style="font-size: 13.5pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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Kumarhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02571503236070897848noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8101059815715683400.post-47522812630576057372017-05-05T00:57:00.000-07:002017-05-05T00:59:31.165-07:00Beheadings at the Line of Control: Indian Countermeasures<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">India
must not hesitate to use lethal force and other covert means to thwart the enemy’s
design without fear of escalation and be prepared to fight a limited war under
the nuclear shadow</span></i></div>
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<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Under the cover of heavy
mortar fire, a Pakistani Border Action Team comprising Special Forces and
jihadi elements in a pre-planned operation sneaked 250 metres across the Line
of Control (LoC) into the Poonch sector of Jammu and Kashmir and beheaded two Indian
security personnel on 1<sup>st</sup> May. <span class="p-content">It is learnt that
the incident occurred when an Indian patrol of 8-10 soldiers was checking the
border fence, a perilous task involving physically moving along the fence, very
close to the Line of Control (LoC) </span>in the Krishna Ghati sector of Poonch<span class="p-content">, to check for damage to the fence or its electronic sensors.
Some media reports suggest that </span>the incident occurred when a joint team
of the army and Border Security Force had gone to check the veracity of an intelligence report
that landmines had been planted by Pakistani troops on the Indian side. As per
reports, at 0825 hours, Pakistani army's 647 Mujahid Battalion targeted India's
forward post 'Kirpan' from its post 'Pimple' in Krishna Ghati sector.</span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">According to the modus
operandi adopted by Pakistani troops on forward posts, the exposed Indian
patrol first came under intense fire from automatic weapons which Pakistani
soldiers had stealthily deployed in temporary positions just across the LoC.</span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">With two Indian soldiers
injured in the firing, jihadi fighters of the BAT darted across the LoC under
cover of firing by Pakistani troops, killed the personnel, beheaded them amd
returned to their side of the Loc with heads as trophies.</span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">The deployment of BAT is
a well-rehearsed tactic by Pakistan that creates deniability by using jihadis
to cross into the Indian side. In the event of any jihadi being killed or
captured, the Pakistanis disown it as an infiltration attempt. The Pakistani
regulars remain on their side of the LoC providing covering fire to the BAT.
This tactic of mutilating Indian soldiers, though employed at the local
commanders’ level has the full support of the Army’s top brass.<span class="p-content"></span></span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">This was not the first
time that Pakistan indulged in mutilating the bodies of the Indian soldiers on
the Line of Control. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>There have been
three instances of this inhuman and despicable conduct since India conducted a
surgical strike in the end of September 2016. This unsoldierly action has gone on
unchecked primarily because the retribution by Indian forces has not had the
desired effect. The response or punitive action by India has been too little,
too late to deter Pakistan. India has several options before it to bleed
Pakistan. The question is does it have the political will and the capability to
execute such acts. Inadequate punishment fails to deter Pakistani violations,
while an excess could set off a cycle of escalation that could spiral out of
control. India is constantly mired up in this question of the kind of action it
must adopt to punish Pakistani.</span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">It is extremely
imprudent if the Indian state were to sit and draw up a plan of action after
every such cross border violation and inhuman conduct by the rogues from across
the border. A blue-print or a Standard Operating Procedure must be in place to
completely render the Pakistanis impotent of waging either an all-out war or an
asymmetric war.</span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">The Indian military does
not have a tri-service plan for immediate retaliation to such inhuman
violations. This would generally involve pre-selection of Pakistani Army or
jihadi targets, earmarking of the aircraft or teams of Special Forces to hit
the pre-determined targets and having defensive measures for possible
retaliation by Pakistan.</span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">The options, without
elaborating the ways and means of executing them and at the cost of repetition,
are firstly to target the terrorist leadership of the Lashkar-e-Toiba,
Jaish-e-Mohammed, the Hizbul Mujahideen and all Kashmir and India-centric
groups based in Pakistan and Af-Pak which are involved in bleeding India.
Secondly, assassinate the top brass of the Pakistani ISI in Pakistan or
outside. Thirdly, target Pakistani interests worldwide by means of sabotage and
assassination. Fourthly, repeated pre-emptive strikes across the LoC and
International Border targeting the terror infrastructure in Pak-Occupied
Kashmir. And last but not the least swift retaliatory strikes in the event of
any cross LoC violations very similar to Israel. These are extremely difficult
options for which the political leadership and the military must be resolute
and in sync with each other. And equally important is the fact that all arms of
the military and civilian intelligence agencies must work in close coordination
and in tandem.</span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">India must reconsider
reviving the Technical Support Division, a covert unit set up during the tenure
of General V. K. Singh when he was COAS.</span> <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">(</i><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">It was reportedly tasked with
preparing, planning and executing special operations “inside depth areas of
countries of interest and countering enemy efforts within the country by
effective covert means”. Main areas of operations were North and Northeast
India, and against adversaries in neighbouring countries. The Army’s internal
approvals for raising the TSD reportedly said it would “enable the Military Intelligence
Directorate to provide a quick response to any act of state-sponsored terrorism
with a high degree of deniability”. Such covert units are necessary to counter
the threat posed by Pakistan and China though such units may be frowned upon in
democracies).</span></i></div>
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<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">It doesn’t need to be
reiterated that India’s inconsistent Pak policy is one of the reasons for the
current state of affairs. India cannot have trade ties and back channel talks
when Pakistani policy has been to bleed India with a thousand cuts. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The Chinese philosopher Sun Tzu said: “Strategy
without tactics is the slowest route to victory; tactics without strategy is
the noise before defeat.” Today India neither has a strategy nor does it have
tactics to deal militarily with Pakistan.</span></div>
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Kumarhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02571503236070897848noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8101059815715683400.post-87156152295660088252017-04-15T06:12:00.000-07:002017-04-15T06:21:21.809-07:00Kulbhushan Jadhav: A Case of Pakistani Subterfuge <!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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</span></i><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"></span></span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">An Indian naval officer
arrested last year and charged with espionage and sabotage was sentenced to
death Monday, the Pakistani military said, a decision that is likely to further
strain relations between the two nations.</span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" data-para-count="447" data-total-count="692" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">The condemned naval officer, Kulbhushan Jadhav, was arrested
in March 2016 in Baluchistan, the restive province in South-West Pakistan,
where a separatist insurgency has simmered for decades. </span><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">While Jadhav was believed to be in
Iran, running a cargo business or business to service dhows and ships from the
port town of Chabahar, Pakistan claimed to have arrested him from the border
town of Chaman in its province of Balochistan, bordering Afghanistan.</span><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"> Pakistani
military officials described the capture of Mr. Jadhav as a major
counterintelligence victory. He was accused of running a clandestine terror
network within the province and of participating in various activities meant to
destabilize the country.</span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" data-para-count="447" data-total-count="692" style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Pakistan has claimed that Jadhav had infiltrated into
Pakistan for “espionage and terror activities” and was in touch with Baloch
separatists. They also claimed that Jadhav was travelling on a false passport,
which identified him as Hussain Mubarak Patel, a resident of Powai in Mumbai. Mr.
Jadhav is also known to spell his surname Yadav.</span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">The Pakistani military said Mr. Jadhav was a “spy” who “was tried through Field General
Court-Martial,” referring to a court-martial trial of heinous crimes, dedicated
to cases involving foreign agents and spies.</span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" data-para-count="329" data-total-count="1535" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">The Pakistani military also asserted that Mr.
Jadhav confessed before a magistrate that he was assigned by India’s spy
agency, the Research and Analysis Wing, or RAW, “to plan and organize espionage
and sabotage activities” in Baluchistan Province and Karachi, the southern port
city that is the country’s commercial hub.</span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" data-para-count="329" data-total-count="1535" style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">India disputes
Pakistan’s accusations, which has often been the case in the testy relations
between the two estranged, nuclear-armed neighbors. India gave a starkly
different version of Mr. Jadhav’s arrest and profession.</span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" data-para-count="306" data-total-count="2300" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Indian officials accused Pakistan of kidnapping
Mr. Jadhav, whom they described as a former Navy officer, and said that
repeated efforts for access to Mr. Jadhav were denied. </span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">According to certain media reports, Kulbhushan Jadhav had
reportedly approached Research and Analysis Wing (R&AW) a number of times
but his offers were turned down by the agency. According to The Indian Express
report, between 2010 and 2012, Jadhav repeatedly had wanted to offer his
service as a freelance intelligence operative but the organisation rejected the
offer citing it will be ‘too much of a risk’.</span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">In 2010, he had given proposal to R&AW, that his dhow,
the Kaminda, can be used as a tool to gather intelligence on Pakistan’s port
project at Gwadar. But “R&AW had little interest in Jadhav’s
intelligence-gathering proposals,” the report said. However Anand Arni, the
long-serving head of R&AW’s Pakistan Desk, who had retired in 2012, said “I
will only repeat what I said on Monday which is that Jadhav was not an asset of
the agency. </span><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Retired officers are never made assets, and we would
certainly never send anyone on a clandestine mission with an Indian passport.</span><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"> You are free to believe or disbelieve
me,” the report said.</span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"> </span> <span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"></span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">In a videotape released by Pakistan’s military last year,
Jadhav says he was recruited by R&AW in 2013, 10 years after setting up his
base in Chabahar. However, there is no officer, past or present, bearing the
name he cites as his handler — Joint Secretary Anil Kumar Gupta. In the
videotape, Jadhav also claims he had contact with National Security Advisor
Ajit Kumar Doval, who served as Director of the Intelligence Bureau in
2004-2005, before taking up his current assignment in 2014. There is no
evidence, though of such contact, and intelligence insiders said it was profoundly
unlikely an intelligence service’s asset would be granted an audience with the
NSA.</span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">It is extremely difficult to say with certainty whether the
former naval officer was working for the Indian intelligence. It is plausible
that Jadhav was conducting a legitimate business in Chabahar and was abducted
from the Iran-Pak border by an extremist outfit called Jaishul Adil linked to
Al Qaeda and thereafter sold to the ISI. Barring Pakistan’s assertion that he
was involved in espionage, there is little evidence to show that he was
involved in espionage.</span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Having got an Indian, and that too a former naval officer in
their custody, Pakistan thought it may reap political dividends by accusing
India of fomenting terrorism inside Pakistan. However, India has resisted this and till date has been exerting diplomatic pressure on Islamabad without resorting to a tit-for-tat. India
made it known that it sought consular access to Jadhav on thirteen occasions and
Pakistan refused to grant access to the prisoner; he was not permitted to legal
representation and his sham trial was conducted in secret by a </span><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Field
General Court-Martial</span><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">. How New
Delhi hopes to attain its objective of getting one of its citizens illegally
detained by a rogue state with only diplomatic means is anybody’s guess.
Pakistan is an entity which has scant respect for international law or any law
for that matter; it does not give a damn for human rights of its own citizens
much less of Indians accused of espionage in its custody. Alleged Indian spies
like Ravindra Kaushik, Sarabjit Singh and many others have died in Pakistani
jails in the past several decades. Expecting Pakistan to hand over Jadhav is
like chasing a chimera.</span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">If Jadhav ought not to meet the same fate as that of the
legendary Israeli spy Elie Cohen, India needs to change track in dealing with Pakistan.
India needs to pay Pakistan back in the same coin. One of Pakistani Army’s own needs
to end up in Indian custody. Indian agencies have the wherewithal to make this
happen. There already have been unconfirmed reports of the “disappearance” of a
retired Pakistan Army Lieutenant Colonel Mohammad Habib Zahir, a Pakistani
artillery officer who may have worked as an undercover ISI agent runner in
Nepal from Nepal’s Lumbini on 6<sup>th</sup> April. It is also being reported that
this Pak officer was involved in the abduction of Jadhav. If India is not
thinking on these lines it needs to start building its capabilities to conduct snatch
operations not only in South Asia but beyond. Instilling fear in Pak’s military
establishment is the only way in which India and Indians can be kept safe. In
the meanwhile Pakistani subterfuge continues.</span></div>
<br />Kumarhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02571503236070897848noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8101059815715683400.post-8719792778726178632017-03-23T21:09:00.001-07:002017-03-24T00:00:00.461-07:00An Attack Foiled in Antwerp<div style="line-height: 13.8pt; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">Belgium thwarted a repeat of Nice in Antwerp a day after
Westminster was attacked by an Islamist terrorist. A French-Tunisian Islamist
was arrested after trying to drive a red <span style="background: white; letter-spacing: -.1pt;">Citroën</span> with French license plates loaded with
liquid gas, a shot gun and knives into a crowd of shoppers in an attempted
terror strike.</span></div>
<div style="line-height: 13.8pt; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div style="line-height: 13.8pt; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">The suspected attacker named as Mohamed R, 39 year old
French-Tunisian tried to mow down pedestrians on Meir, Antwerp's main
pedestrian street on 23rd March 2017.</span></div>
<div style="line-height: 13.8pt; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-sKy8-TSYvRA/WNSTfuQPoOI/AAAAAAAAAEg/cwQV6G-e0C43j3pokwoj0W3ZC-ng0QBDwCEw/s1600/3E8F61A500000578-4342446-image-a-131_1490284849560.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><img border="0" height="288" src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-sKy8-TSYvRA/WNSTfuQPoOI/AAAAAAAAAEg/cwQV6G-e0C43j3pokwoj0W3ZC-ng0QBDwCEw/s400/3E8F61A500000578-4342446-image-a-131_1490284849560.jpg" width="400" /></span></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">Source: Daily Mail</span></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">It was
not immediately clear if the car contained any explosives.</span></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">The car
was driven down the Meir street in Antwerp - the city's busiest pedestrian
streets. </span></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">Shoppers
had to dive out of the way of the speeding car to avoid serious injury.</span></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">Belgian
soldiers then forced the driver to stop, but he fled by running a red light as
he made his way towards the Scheldt river.</span></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">He tried
and failed to knock people down in the busy shopping area and fled the scene
towards the city's port where he was arrested, according to Le Soir. </span></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">The man
was detained on St Michielskaai in Antwerp which is less than a mile away from
the Meir, according to VTM.</span></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">The gas
liquid was found in a canister, and as a result the case was handed over to the
federal prosecutor's office, which usually deals with terrorism cases in
Belgium. </span></div>
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</div>
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<br /></div>
<div style="line-height: 13.8pt; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0in;">
<br /></div>
Kumarhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02571503236070897848noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8101059815715683400.post-15451408102871354342017-03-22T21:37:00.000-07:002017-03-25T02:25:53.651-07:00Westminster 22/3<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<i>In 2016, it was Brussels 22/3 and one year later it is Westminster 22/3. A terror attack in the heart of London left five dead and nearly 40 injured</i><br />
<i><br /></i>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">The London terror attack is a developing story and is
reminiscent of the 2001 Indian Parliament attack though on a relatively lesser
scale. The incident has taken place on the first anniversary of the Brussels attacks
carried out by by Islamist militants that killed 32 people.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">An assailant believed to be an Islamist (owing allegiance to ISIS) stabbed a policeman
and was shot by police just outside Britain's parliament building in London on
22nd March around 2.40 pm in what police described as a "terrorist incident." It was
later announced that the policeman Keith Palmer, 48 succumbed to his injuries. It was reported earlier that two people died
in the incident, according to Sky News, but the total number of casualties was
unclear. Later it was reported that five persons including the police officer
and the assailant were among those dead and around 40 were injured.<br />
<br />
Amid confusing scenes, it appeared the incident may have unfolded in several
locations, including on the nearby Westminster Bridge where eyewitnesses said a
car had crashed into pedestrians. <o:p></o:p></span><span style="font-family: "georgia" , serif; font-size: 12pt;">A 4x4
vehicle ploughed into the railings near Westminster Hall after mowing down
pedestrians on the bridge.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="background: white;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-r7CrVRc8D1g/WNNFHYQm67I/AAAAAAAAAEA/hOnJ6PG5ed48F6iHI-ok31HeM-spddDkwCEw/s1600/british-parliament-Artboard_2.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="190" src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-r7CrVRc8D1g/WNNFHYQm67I/AAAAAAAAAEA/hOnJ6PG5ed48F6iHI-ok31HeM-spddDkwCEw/s400/british-parliament-Artboard_2.jpg" width="400" /></a><i>Source: NYT</i> <span style="background-color: white; font-family: , "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: 12px;"><i>Terrain and aerial imagery by Google</i></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="background: white;"></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<i><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">The yellow
arrow indicates the route taken by the terrorist on Westminster bridge; the two yellow circles are
the places where the car crashed and where the assailant was shot and the red
spots show where the pedestrians were wounded.<o:p></o:p></span></i></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="background: white;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Reuters’ reporters inside the parliament building heard loud
bangs and shortly afterwards saw two people lying on the ground in a courtyard
just outside, within the perimeter of the parliamentary estate.<br />
<br />
A Reuters’ photographer said he saw at least a dozen people injured on
Westminster Bridge, next to parliament.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">His photographs showed people lying on the ground, some of them bleeding
heavily and one apparently under a bus.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , serif; font-size: 12pt;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , serif; font-size: 12pt;">Witness reports suggested the assailant and the stabbed
policeman were the people seen lying on the ground just outside the
parliamentary building by Reuters reporters.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , serif; font-size: 12pt;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , serif; font-size: 12pt;">The House of Commons, which was in session at the time, was immediately
suspended and lawmakers were asked to stay inside.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , serif; font-size: 12pt;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , serif; font-size: 12pt;">Prime Minister Theresa May was safe after the incident, a spokesman for her
office said. He declined to say where May was when the attack took place.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">
<br />
Journalist Quentin Letts of the Daily Mail newspaper told LBC radio that he had
witnessed the stabbing of the policeman and the shooting of the assailant from
his office in the parliament building.<br />
<br />
"He (the assailant) ran in through the open gates ... He set about one of
the policemen with what looked like a stick," Letts said. </span><span style="font-family: "georgia" , serif; font-size: 12pt;">Letts, said he saw a man in black attack a police officer
outside Parliament before being shot two or three times as he tried to storm
into the House of Commons, the Press Association reports.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">
<br />
"The policeman (Keith Palmer) fell over on the ground and it was quite
horrible to watch and then having done that, he disengaged and ran towards the
House of Commons entrance used by MPs (members of parliament) and got about 20
yards or so when two plain-clothed guys with guns shot him."<span style="background: white;"> </span></span><span style="font-family: "georgia" , serif; font-size: 12pt;">He added:
“As this attacker was running towards the entrance two plain clothed guys with
guns shouted at him, what appeared like a warning, he ignored it and they shot
him two or three times and he fell.” </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Reuters’ reporters inside parliament saw a large number of armed police, some
carrying shields, pouring into the building.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">In Edinburgh, the Scottish parliament suspended a planned debate and vote on
independence as news of events in London came in.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Britain is on its second-highest alert level of "severe" meaning an
attack by militants is considered highly likely.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">The identity of the suspected Islamist militant has not been released by the London Police for reasons best known. It is rather stupid on part of the authorities to suppress the identity merely because of suspected ISIS links. </span><span style="font-family: "georgia" , serif; font-size: 12pt;">Suppression of essential information leads to speculative
reporting. The attacker was briefly identified by Channel 4 News as a prominent
British-born Islamist extremist but the broadcaster later reversed its report
after other journalists disputed it on Twitter. BBC Pakistan correspondent
Secunder Kernani said a “reliable source” told him that the man Channel 4 named
was in jail.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , serif; font-size: 12pt;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">The Islamist link was apparent from the choice of weapons, namely using a vehicle to plough into a crowd as in Nice and Berlin and a knife for stabbing which has been used in the past by Islamist terrorists in Israel and elsewhere. The ISIS link is further reinforced by the choice of the target, namely, the heart of democracy, the British Parliament and a street with a lot of pedestrians. ISIS, the Jaish-e-Mohammed and Lashkar-e-Toiba choose high value targets and public places frequented by a lot of people at any given point of time.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">The police again had no business to refer to the attack as a "Lone Wolf Attack" or that only a lone attacker was involved in the absence of detailed investigations.<br />
<br />
In May 2013, two British Islamists stabbed to death soldier Lee Rigby on a
street in southeast London.<br />
<br />
In July 2005, four British Islamists killed 52 commuters and themselves in
suicide bombings on the British capital's transport system in what was London's
worst peacetime attack.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span>
<span style="color: red; font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><i><b>Update: The identity of the assailant was released by the authorities. The name of the assailant is Khalid Masood, 52 from West Midlands who had a criminal record but was not considered as a terror threat. According to sources, the terrorist was killed by the protection officers of Defence Secretary Michael Fallon.</b></i></span><br />
<br />
<br />
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<span style="color: red; font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><i><b><span style="color: blue;">Update 25th<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif";"> March</span>:</span> </b></i></span><i><b><span style="color: red;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; line-height: 115%;">According to security
officials, the terrorist Khalid Masood was not a “lone wolf” and others had
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attacks in Westminster on 22<sup>nd</sup> March.</span></span></span></b></i></div>
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British-born Muslim convert was likely to have been part of a wider conspiracy
came as armed police detained 11 people in raids across the country with two of
the arrests, including that of a woman, Rohey Hydara, a Gambian woman with whom
he was living, described as “significant” in the investigation.</span></span></span></b></i></div>
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Kumarhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02571503236070897848noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8101059815715683400.post-10399430052318540862016-12-23T05:45:00.000-08:002016-12-23T05:45:06.172-08:00A Repeat of Nice in Berlin - Terror Attack on Christmas Market<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Berlin, on the night of 19<sup>th</sup> December 2016,
became a target of an Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) terror attack when
a Scania R-450 semi-trailer truck belonging to a Polish delivery company Ustugi
Transportowe (Transport Services) laden with steel beams meant to be delivered
to ThyssenKrupp, plowed into a crowd of holiday revelers at the market in front
of Kaiser Wilhelm Memorial Church at Breitscheidplatz killing 12 people and
injuring 48 others. The black semi-trailer with Polish license plates drove
into the sidewalk at the market at about 8.00 pm barreling more than 200 feet,
according to eyewitnesses. </span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">The Berlin Attack was identical to the attack carried out by
a Tunisian-born French citizen during the Bastille Day celebrations in July
2016 in Nice, France which claimed the lives of 86 innocent civilians. In both
the attacks the perpetrators were of Tunisian origin and the responsibility for
the attacks was claimed by the ISIS. The attacker, later identified as a 23
year old Tunisian, Anis Amri took over the truck driven by a Polish citizen
identified as Lukasz Urban before driving into the crowd at the Christmas
market. A suspect, Naved Baloch of Pakistani origin was detained briefly but
was released for want of evidence. Amri was known to German intelligence and
was under surveillance for trying to acquire weapons. (It is indeed strange
that most of the jihadi terrorists responsible for carrying out attacks in
Europe since January 2015 have had a police record or were placed under surveillance
of intelligence agencies at some point of time). After the truck attack in Nice
and many attacks in Israel using the same modus operandi, namely, ramming a
vehicle into a crowd, or using Vehicle Borne Improvised Explosive Device
(VBIED), the European agencies ought to have been alert to movement of
suspicious heavy vehicles near markets and religious congregations. In fact the
training manuals of ISIS and Al Qaeda contain details of carrying out a
successful vehicular ramming attack. </span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Al-Qaida published several training
manuals on how to carry out a successful vehicular ramming attack since Inspire
magazines volumes 1 & 2 (2010). In the 13<sup>th</sup> (2014) and 16<sup>th</sup>
(2016) Volumes of Inspire magazine, the organization provided examples of
successful vehicular ramming attacks, noting the ramming of Canadian soldiers
and the attack in Nice as exemplary lone wolf attacks.</span></i></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">ISIS as well published its own “user
manuals” on how to carry out a successful vehicular ramming attack; the most
recent of which was published just a few weeks before the Berlin attack
(Rumiyah, Issue 3, November 7, 2016). The publication calls for the individuals
to initiate vehicular ramming attacks, pointing out the benefits of such
attacks, giving detailed instructions on how to select and operate the vehicles
and recommending the types of targets.</span></i></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">The advantages, according to the
article, of using vehicles for vehicular ramming attack are the fact that a
vehicle can serve as 'a weapon' which is easy to use for anyone who knows how
to drive, it is significantly less suspicious than other weapons (such as a
knife, for example), it is easy to obtain and can cause a large numbers of
casualties. The organization summarizes these advantages: “It is for this
obvious reason that using a vehicle is one of the most comprehensive methods of
attack, as it presents the opportunity for just terror for anyone possessing
the ability to drive a vehicle. Likewise, it is one of the safest and easiest
weapons one could employ against the kuffar, while being from amongst the most
lethal methods of attack and the most successful in harvesting large numbers of
the kuffar”.</span></i></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">ISIS notes that the vehicle of choice
to carry out these attacks needs to be heavy weight and as large as possible
while still being able to reach high speeds. Vehicles can be bought, rented,
lent, and if necessary, even acquired by theft or kidnapping of the driver.</span></i></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Finally, the article provides several
targets of choice such as outdoors events and/or markets, pedestrian crowded
streets, festivals, parades and political rallies.<a href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=8101059815715683400#_ftn1" name="_ftnref1" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn1;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin;">[1]</span></b></span></span></span></a></span></i></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">To contend or
conclude that the attacks in Nice and Berlin were “ISIS inspired” lone wolf
attacks is utterly idiotic. The Berlin attack is still under investigation and
as yet it is not clear as to how the perpetrator or perpetrators got hold of
the truck which was used in the attack. This attack seemed to have been
carefully planned and executed and the target, namely, the Christmas market was
not randomly chosen. This is evident from the extract given above.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">The writing was on the wall!</span></b></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"> </span></b><span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"> </span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Europe had been on the crosshairs since the beginning of
January 2015 when the Paris office of Charlie Hebdo was attacked by Islamist
gunmen. This incident was followed by the Kosher Market hostage taking and
later the November 2015 attacks in Paris and the Brussels airport bombings in
March 2016. Germany itself witnessed some not so major terrorist incidents in
2016 and it was not a question of if but when Berlin would be targeted by ISIS.</span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">In the beginning of December 2016, European Union’s law
enforcement agency Europol warned that some intelligence services anticipated
that several dozen people directed by the ISIS may be in Europe to commit
terrorist attacks. Europol also stated in addition to France and Belgium, all
other EU member states which were part of the US-led coalition against the
Islamic State may be targeted by terrorists. Notwithstanding these alerts or
warnings, Germany was unable to thwart the present attack indicating a failure
of some sort, either in coordination between various security agencies within
the German Republic or the threat assessment level pertaining to individuals
who pose grave threat to national security. For years, according to
critics a lack of information-sharing was slowing down and weakening the
effectiveness of Germany’s patchwork of federal and regional security agencies.</span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Within Germany’s federalized system, each of the country’s
16 states has its own state police force as well as its own domestic
intelligence service, in addition to various federal agencies operating
nation-wide.</span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">The core problem, officials say, is that — partly due to
outdated IT systems, and partly to Germany’s strict laws regarding data privacy
— information obtained by investigators is currently stored by different
services in separate information pools, which exist in parallel.</span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">“You could say, ‘too many<strong><span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif";"> ‘</span></strong>pools’ spoil the broth,’”
De Maizière said in a November 2016 address to the annual conference of
Germany’s Federal Criminal Office (BKA). “They unnecessarily duplicate
data and include the high risk of inconsistent, incomplete and inaccurate
data.”</span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Officials can only access individual pools, rather than all
of them at the same time, De Maizière complained back in November.</span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Likewise, on the European level, he has complained about the
lack of data-sharing between EU intelligence and security agencies.</span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Germany’s Federal Crime Office (BKA) is monitoring 530
so-called <em><span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif";">Gefährder</span></em>,
radicalized individuals who officials suspect may commit serious
crimes such as a terror attack or murder.</span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">It is highly unlikely that redressing this defect would
secure Germany from future attacks. The resources of the federal and state
agencies have been stretched, thanks to the Merkel government’s foolish and
short-sighted policy of allowing more than a million so-called refugees from
the war zones of Syria and Iraq to enter the country without any system of
vetting or verification. Thus the agencies were burdened with a herculean task
overnight.</span><span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"> (</span><span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Around
1.2 million Muslims entered the country between May 2011 and the end of 2015).</span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">It must be emphasized
that the European governments must concentrate their efforts on tackling
Islamist extremists owing allegiance to the ISIS rather than on Islamophobia.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="color: red; font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">[Update: Anis Amri, the Tunisian attacker was reportedly shot dead by Italian
Police officers in the Italian city of Milan during a routine identity check on
23<sup>rd</sup> December 2016.</span></i></b></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="color: red; font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">What started as a routine police check ended in the death of the
Berlin attacker. Two police officers on a regular early morning patrol spotted
a man acting suspiciously at 3:00 a.m. local time at a train station in Milan's
working class neighborhood of Sesto San Giovanni. They approached the man,
unaware of the fact that he was Anis Amri and asked for his papers. He reached
into his pocket and instead of pulling out documents, he pulled out a
.22-caliber pistol and shot one of the officers, who returned fire and shot him
dead].</span></i></b></div>
<div style="mso-element: footnote-list;">
<br clear="all" />
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<div id="ftn1" style="mso-element: footnote;">
<div class="MsoFootnoteText">
<a href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=8101059815715683400#_ftnref1" name="_ftn1" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn1;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[1]</span></span></span></span></a>
<i>The Berlin Vehicular Ramming Attack – What We Know & Insight from ICT
Experts,</i> International Institute for Counter Terrorism, IDC Herzliya, Israel</div>
</div>
</div>
Kumarhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02571503236070897848noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8101059815715683400.post-14089989287984108332016-09-29T04:38:00.000-07:002016-09-29T06:34:56.064-07:00Uri Attack: India Responds<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"></span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Eleven days after
Pakistan-backed terrorists owing allegiance to the Jaish-e-Mohammed attacked
the 12 Infantry Brigade HQ at Uri, the Indian Army struck back. According to
Indian Army sources, personnel of the Special Forces were para (or
heli)-dropped across the Line of Control (LoC). Five terror launch pads were
destroyed by the SF personnel. This was not only a surgical strike but a
pre-emptive strike as well, as precise information was available that
terrorists were being assembled for infiltration across the LoC for carrying
out attacks in Kashmir and elsewhere. The operation was meticulously planned
post-Uri and perfectly executed by the Special Forces.</span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">The Special Forces
operation on terror launch pads lasted from 12:30 am to 4:30 am, the location
was between 500 meters to 2 Km across the LoC, news agency ANI reported.</span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">The announcement of the
sudden action by the army to target terrorists was made by the Director General
Military Operations Lt Gen Ranveer Singh at a hurriedly called news conference
during which external affairs ministry spokesman Vikas Swarup was also present.</span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Gen Singh said India
shared with Pakistani army details of the surgical strikes which followed “very
specific information” that terrorists were positioning themselves in the launch
pads along the LoC.</span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Based on specific
intelligence input of terror groups ready to infiltrate into India and carry
out terror attacks, Army conducted surgical strikes on terror launch pads at
the LoC on the night of 28<sup>th</sup> and early hours of 29<sup>th</sup>. <b>The
strikes were carried out in Bhimber, Hotspring, Kel & Lipa sectors, on
Pakistan's side of the LoC. Indian commandos entered three kilometres across
the Line of Control to conduct the 'surgical / pre-emptive strikes. 5 terror
launch pads were destroyed during the surgical strike. According to media
reports about 35 terrorists and 9 Pak Army personnel were killed in the
operation.</b></span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">The strikes seemed to
have been carried out by the elite para commandos (most probably units from 4
Para and 9 Para) who were heli-dropped two to three kilometers deep into
Pak-occupied territory and were backed by ground troops. The insertion and
exfiltration of the commandos was executed flawlessly. The unit executing the
strikes had <b>speed</b>, <b>surprise</b>, <b>stealth</b> and <b>superior
tactics</b> the four ‘Ss’ required for a successful surgical strike. The
raiding party also had accurate and real time intelligence through human
sources to inflict casualties and damage on the enemy. It is learnt that the
targets were kept under close surveillance (probably through the use of UAV or
HUMINT) for nearly a week before the strikes.</span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">The Pioneer in its web
edition dated 21<sup>st</sup> September 2016 had reported that one battalion
each of 4 Para and 9 Para Special Forces trained for anti-terrorist operations
had been asked to stand in operational readiness till further orders,
indicating that the Centre has not ruled out retaliatory action for the
Pakistan-sponsored attack. </span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">The new Indian Express
too in its web edition dated 25<sup>th</sup> September 2016 had reported that
besides movement of infantry brigades, multiple teams of elite Special Forces
(SF) were camping at strategic locations. Sources claimed that troops from
commando units like 2, 4 and 9 Para SF were gearing up on the Line of Control
(LoC), as they were trained in unconventional warfare, special reconnaissance
and to carry out cross-border surgical strikes. The units of 4 Para and 9 Para
were probably assigned the task to take out the launch pads across the LoC on
29th September 2016.</span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">This author has in the
past urged that India was well within its right under international law to
respond militarily by resorting to measures in the form of
"Reprisals". The relevant extracts from two older posts are
reproduced herein:</span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><a href="http://kumar-theloneranger.blogspot.in/2008/12/mumbai-2611.html">http://kumar-theloneranger.blogspot.in/2008/12/mumbai-2611.html</a></span><br />
</div>
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<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">The military option that
India must consider is not war but measures short of war. Reprisal, for
instance, under such special and compelling circumstances could be considered
legitimate and justified under international law. “A reprisal is an act of
SELF-HELP… by the injured state, responding—after an unsatisfied demand—to an act
contrary to international law committed by the offending state….Its object is
to effect REPARATION from the offending state for the offense or a return to
legality by the avoidance of further offenses." [Naulilaa Case (Portugal
v. Germany), 2 UN Reports Of International Arbitral Awards 1012
(Portuguese-German Mixed Arbitral Tribunal, 1928)] A reprisal is a form of self
defense and can only be used as a last resort; it must be executed with the
view of restoring a sense of equilibrium in international relations and
ensuring future compliance with legal norms.</span><br />
</div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><a href="http://kumar-theloneranger.blogspot.in/2013/01/line-of-no-control-pakistans-brutality_10.html">http://kumar-theloneranger.blogspot.in/2013/01/line-of-no-control-pakistans-brutality_10.html</a></span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<b><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">What
are the options available to India?</span></b><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"> </span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">India should retaliate
at a time and place of its choosing. India under international law is entitled
to take action in the form of reprisals. The Indian Army’s Special Forces have
the means and capability to initiate an operation similar to the one carried
out by Pakistan. However, more important is that the Army needs to have a
contingency plan to carry out limited cross-border strikes at regular intervals
to deter the enemy from engaging in such adventures. Of course, the essential
pre-requisite for sanctioning a one-off military operation in retaliation or
regular strikes as and by way of deterrence is the existence of a strong
political will and the unqualified support of the political leadership.</span></div>
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<i><span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">In consonance with its Kashmir policy and use of terror as an instrument of state policy, Pakistan backed terrorists owing allegiance to the </span></i><span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><i>Jaish-e-Mohammed attacked an army installation in Kashmir inflicting heavy casualties. The Indian state's intransigence has only emboldened Pakistan to devise new ways of bleeding India.</i></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">In the wee hours of Sunday 18<sup>th</sup> September 2016, a
group of four heavily armed fedayeen attackers belonging to the Masood
Azhar-led Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM) struck at the headquarters of the 12 Infantry
Brigade at Uri and killed 17 army personnel belonging to the 10 Dogra and 6
Bihar Regiments. (Uri is a town on the river Jhelum located in Baramulla
district of Jammu and Kashmir). After a fierce gunfight lasting more than three
hours all the four attackers were neutralized. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">The JeM is a Pakistan funded and ISI-trained terror outfit
whose main objective is to carry out attacks against high-value and high
security Indian targets. JeM primarily attacks Indian police forces and other
government targets, including army bases, camps, and public places in Kashmir
and elsewhere in India. This is the same group which had carried out an attack
on Indian Parliament in 2001 and earlier in April 2000 it was responsible for
the suicide bombing outside the Indian Army’s 15 Corp headquarters in Badami
Bagh. The group receives funds through charitable foundations such as the
Pak-based Al Rashid Trust, (ART) a trust fund recognized by the U.S. as a
financial facilitator of terrorists for raising funds for Al Qaeda and the
Taliban in 2001.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">A map recovered by the
army personnel recovered from the deceased attackers had markings in the
Pashtun language and indicated a detailed plan of action. Four AK-47 rifles and
four Under Barrel Grenade Launchers along with ammunition were also recovered.
Some of the items had Pakistani markings. The Director General of military
operations, Lieutenant-General Ranbir Singh, said that there was evidence that
the attackers belonged to JeM. The map retrieved from the terrorists revealed
that they were to kill unarmed troops, then storm a medical aid unit near the
brigade administrative block and blow themselves up in the officers' mess. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Sources said the map
deciphered by military experts indicated that the terrorists were drawn from
the banned terror group, Sipah-e-Sahaba Pakistan (SSP) that recently started
working under Jaish command and calls itself "Guardians of the
Prophet". The SSP cadre directly operates under <span class="newsincontext"><span data-id="nic54398406" data-nic_host="83" data-nic_msid="54392506" data-nic_mssubtype="0" data-nic_mstype="2" id="nic54392506">Jaish-e-Mohammad</span> chief Masood Azhar.</span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">According to reports there was specific intelligence input two
days earlier that militants were planning to strike army formations close to
the Line of Control. Furthermore, <em><span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">Business
Standard</span></em> learns the Uri brigade was given pinpoint intelligence
warnings about an impending attack. The intelligence agency had said that three
fidayeen squads were launched from Pakistan Occupied Kashmir. One of them
attacked Uri, another went to Poonch where it was engaged by the security
forces, and the third was untraced. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Indian’s political dispensation has so far failed to take any
concrete action against the Pakistanis or the groups funded and backed by Pakistan
till date, notwithstanding the regular terror strikes carried out on Indian
soil. India has been unable to muster the political resolve to hit Pak where it
hurts most. India’s action has largely been confined to rhetoric and soft
options such as economic sanctions or boycott or diplomatic isolation. These actions
in the past have not deterred Pakistan or its thugs; these have been mere pinpricks.
Pakistan will be deterred only if its very existence is threatened. In order to
hit Pakistan effectively, India will have to revise its “No first use” nuclear
doctrine and declare that India will respond in a manner that it deems
appropriate including a first use of nuclear weapons depending on the exigency.
With a revised nuclear doctrine, India can and should counter Pakistan, if need
be militarily.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Time and again this blog
has called for targeting Pakistanis and Pakistani strategic and commercial interests
world-wide. In fact, when in 2008, Pak-backed terror groups attacked and
destroyed the Indian Embassy in Kabul, Pakistani missions should have been targeted
in retaliation. India failed to respond effectively and the result was Mumbai 26/11.</span><span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">
The then National Security Adviser M.K. Narayanan, according to an article
appearing in <b>The Hindu</b>, called for action. “Talk-talk is better than
fight-fight,” he said, “but it hasn’t worked. I think we need to pay back in
the same coin.” </span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Mr. Narayanan,
intelligence officers serving at the time recall, authorised India’s Research
and Analysis Wing (RAW) to begin a quiet dialogue on doing just that with its
Afghan counterparts. It found a willing partner in Amrullah Saleh, the then
head of the Riyasat-e Amniyat-e Milli, or the National Directorate of Security
(NDS). Following the 26/11 strike, the officials said, RAW even explored the
prospect of targeting Lashkar-e-Taiba chief Hafiz Muhammad Saeed, using NDS’
assets inside <i>jihadist </i>groups hostile to the Pakistan Army. India’s
intelligence czar, though, never got the political clearance he hoped for. The
then Prime Minister Manmohan Singh remained committed to the dialogue process
with Pakistan, believing that bomb-for-bomb strikes would increase terrorist
violence. In early 2010, foreign service officer Shivshankar Menon replaced Mr.
Narayanan as the National Security Adviser, and the doves came to control
policy-making. </span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">“Keep your hands in
your pockets,” a senior R&AW official recalls Mr. Menon as telling Afghan
desk officers in mid-2010 — effectively putting an end to any hope of
tit-for-tat strike.</span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">India must appreciate the harsh reality that this ongoing undeclared war with Pakistan must be fought alone; neither the US nor the Russians can be expected to fight India's war. At best the international community can be expected to extend technological assistance to India. And importantly this war needs to fought on all fronts - political, military, diplomatic and economic. And India hopefully having learned the lessons of 1965 and 1971 would not leave the "business unfinished" in this undeclared war.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">A few options that India may consider in the present scenario are:</span></div>
<ul>
<li><span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">High precision surgical strikes across the Line of Control (LoC) targeting the enemy's logistics and infrastructure. This may result in a certain degree of escalation, which is only to be expected.</span></li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li><span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Air-strikes on Pakistani bases responsible for aiding infiltration of terrorists and Pakistani irregulars.</span><span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"> </span></li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li><span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">In order to explore
the possibility of countering Pak-sponsored and backed terror, Indian security
agencies must start developing covert action capabilities in Pakistan and
elsewhere to effectively strike at Pakistani interests. Options such as covert
action cannot be discussed in great detail in blogs and news studios given the
deniable nature of the acts. </span><span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"> </span></li>
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<li><span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Targeted killings of
military/ISI personnel could be cost effective.</span><span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"> </span></li>
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<li><span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Pakistani society is
fragile and prone to sectarian violence and India must not hesitate to exploit
this weakness. </span><span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"> </span></li>
</ul>
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<li><span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">India can also abrogate
the Indus Waters Treaty on the ground of <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">rebus
sic stantibus</i> effectively crippling Pakistan’s sustenance.</span><span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"> </span></li>
</ul>
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<li><span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Normal trade and bus
and train services between India and Pakistan may also be suspended. This
action would be more cosmetic and symbolic.</span><span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"> </span></li>
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<span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">It must be reiterated
that should India fail to act ‘decisively’ meaning thereby using the hard power
options, India as a state would have failed in discharging its primary role,
namely, of protecting and defending its territorial integrity and sovereignty and
the international community will cease to take India seriously as a dominant
power. </span></div>
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<br /></div>
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Kumarhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02571503236070897848noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8101059815715683400.post-43651251576526973582016-07-25T06:23:00.000-07:002016-07-25T10:53:43.080-07:00Terror Attacks in Germany - A Wake-up Call for Merkel<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<i><span style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Having opened the doors to migrants from conflict zones</span></span></i><span style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><i> particularly Syria and Iraq, t</i></span></span><i><span style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">error attacks were only inevitable</span></span></i><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">. </span></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><i>It is anybody's guess how the people of Germany would react to the spate of attacks and what steps the German government takes to thwart future attacks.</i></span></span><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"> </span></b></div>
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<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Munich
Olympia Mall Shooting</span></b></div>
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<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"> </span></b><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"> </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">After about 44 years,
terror re-visited Munich. In September 1972, Palestinian gunmen belonging to
the Black September Organisation killed 11 Israeli athletes who were staying in
the Olympic Village at Munich.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>On 22
July 2016, an 18-year-old German of Iranian descent Ali David Sonboly opened
fire in the vicinity of the Olympia Shopping Mall (Olympia-Einkaufszentrum,
OEZ) in the Moosach district of Munich. Incidentally the Munich mall is near
the stadium for the 1972 Olympics and the athletes' village. The German police
said that at least 9 people were killed in the shooting that was carried out by
a lone gunman who is then reported to have committed suicide around 1 kilometre
from the scene of the attack. The shooting began in Hanauer Straße and
then shifted to the Riesstraße — streets close to the Olympia shopping
center — before moving into the mall itself shortly before 6 p.m.,
according to the official Facebook page of the Munich police. </span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">The shooter had lived in
Munich for at least two years. Munich police chief Hubertus Andra told a press
conference it was “totally unclear” whether the incident was an act of terror,
though eye witnesses reported that the shooter screamed “Allahu Akbar” while
firing.</span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Twenty-one people,
including several children, were taken to the hospital. Police reported that 16
were injured and three were in a critical condition.</span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">The </span></b><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Würzburg </span>Attack</span></b></div>
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<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">The attack came just
days after a 17-year-old asylum seeker Muhammad Riyad went on a rampage with an
axe and a knife on a train on Monday near Würzburg, also in Bavaria, injuring
five people before being shot dead by the police.</span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Interior Minister Thomas
de Maiziere had said that assailant was believed to be a "lone wolf"
who appeared to have been "inspired" by Islamic State group but was
not a member of the jihadist network.</span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">The train attack
triggered calls by some politicians to impose an upper limit on the number of
refugees coming into Germany, which accepted a record 1.1 million migrants and
refugees last year, many through Bavaria.</span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">On 24<sup>th</sup> July
2016, a knife-wielding attacker sparked panic, after killing a woman near a
Turkish fast-food kiosk in downtown Reutlingen, according to German
mass-circulation newspaper "Bild".</span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Five people were
reportedly wounded in the attack and brought to the hospital. A car driver
spotted the attacker running away from the scene and hit him with his vehicle,
allowing police to grab hold of the suspect and make an arrest, according to a
police spokesman cited by the DPA news agency. Police stated that the suspect
was a 21-year-old male refugee from Syria known to authorities for previous
acts of violence.</span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Ansbach
Bombing</span></b></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">On the night of 24<sup>th</sup>
July 2016, a 27-year-old Syrian man who had been denied asylum in Germany a
year ago died when a bomb he was carrying <span class="newsincontext">exploded</span>
outside a music festival in Ansbach, Germany. Twelve people were wounded in the
attack. Bavaria interior minister Joachim Herrmann said the man, carrying a
backpack, had apparently been denied entry to the Ansbach Open music festival
shortly before the explosion. A large area around the site of the explosion, in
the city of around 40,000 people, was still sealed off hours after it occurred
outside a restaurant called Eugens Weinstube. More than 2,000 people were
evacuated from the festival after the explosion, police said. The bomber was
known to police in Ansbach for previous offenses, including drug crimes,
Herrmann said. He had also twice attempted suicide before the bombing. </span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Ansbach is home to a US
army base and the 12th Combat Aviation Brigade with around 5,000 members of the
military living there along with civilians, contractors and retirees. There are
three military installations in the Ansbach area, according to the garrison's
website. A spokesman at the base said the base had no information about the
explosion.</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; font-family: Georgia, serif; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span>
<span style="background-color: white; font-family: Georgia, serif; line-height: 115%;"><i><span style="color: red;">[Update: BBC - The Syrian man who
blew himself up in Ansbach, Germany, on Sunday made a video pledging allegiance
to the leader of so-called Islamic State, Bavaria's interior minister says.</span></i></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 115%;"><i><span style="color: red;"><br /></span></i></span>
<span style="background-color: white; font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 115%;"><i><span style="color: red;">Joachim
Hermann said two phones, multiple SIM cards and a laptop were found with the
body of the 27-year-old asylum seeker or at his accommodation.</span></i></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 115%;"><i><span style="color: red;"><br /></span></i></span>
<span style="background-color: white; font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 115%;"><i><span style="color: red;">The man
threatened a "revenge attack" on Germans in the video, he said.</span></i></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 115%;"><i><span style="color: red;"><br /></span></i></span>
<span style="background-color: white; font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 115%;"><i><span style="color: red;">IS has
claimed it was behind the attack and the Syrian was an IS "soldier".</span></i></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; font-family: Georgia, serif; line-height: 115%;"><i><span style="color: red;"><br /></span></i></span>
<i><span style="color: red;"><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Georgia, serif; line-height: 115%;">The attacker announced in the video "in the name of
Allah that he pledged allegiance to [IS chief] Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi... and
announced an act of revenge against Germans because they were standing in the
way of Islam," Mr Hermann said.</span></span></i><br />
<i><span style="color: red;"><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Georgia, serif; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span></span></i>
<span style="background-color: white; font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><i><span style="color: red;">Further
bomb-making equipment was found at the asylum seeker accommodation where the
man was living, including a fuel canister, hydrogen peroxide and batteries</span></i></span><i><span style="color: red;"><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Georgia, serif; line-height: 115%;">].</span> </span></i></div>
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<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">The mall shooting
occurred just eight days after 31-year-old Mohamed Lahouaiej Bouhlel used a
truck to mow down 84 people, including children, after a Bastille Day fireworks
display in Nice, the third major attack on French soil in the past 18 months.</span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">In March 2016, Islamic
State claimed suicide bombings at Brussels airport and a city metro station
that left 32 people dead.</span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">In May, a mentally
unstable 27-year-old man carried out a knife attack on a regional train in
Bavaria, killing one person and injuring three others.</span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Tensions between native
and immigrant Germans have been on the rise since Germany accepted nearly one
million refugees during last year's migrant crisis, in which Bavaria was on the
front line.</span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Although it has been
France and Belgium that have been hit by recent atrocities, Germany shares many
of the same vulnerabilities.</span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Just like France and
Belgium, Germany has seen significant numbers of its residents join the flow of
international jihadists to Iraq and Syria. The most recent figures estimate
more than 700 men and women from the country may have left to join extremist
groups such as Islamic State and many are likely to have later returned home.</span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Last month, the German
justice ministry admitted the federal prosecutor was conducting 120
investigations into more than 180 suspects and defendants "in connection
with the Syrian civil war for their membership or support of a terrorist
organisation".</span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Germany's links to
Islamist terrorism go back decades, long before the current troubles.</span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">A small group of radical
Middle Eastern Islamists formed in the 1990s known as the Hamburg cell produced
three of the 9/11 hijackers.</span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">More recent incidents
have included an alleged plot by four suspected Islamic State members last
month to launch suicide bombings in the city of Dusseldorf. </span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Intelligence agents last
year reportedly foiled a plot to detonate three bombs inside a Hanover football
stadium during an international friendly.</span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">But social tensions
arising from the large influx of refugees have also fuelled a sharp rise in
popularity for extreme and sometimes violent far-Right groups.</span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">The police and the
German government have repeatedly claimed that except for the July 18 axe
attack, none of the other attacks bore any signs of connections with the
Islamic State or any other terrorist groups. The Munich shooter apparently had
a history of mental illness. However the Syrian responsible for the machete
attack in Reutlingen did not have any psychiatric problem. The question that
must logically follow is why is that in most of the recent attacks that have
taken place in Europe and in Germany, the attackers or the accomplices have
always been Muslims either from North Africa or the Middle East and followers
of the radical Salafi Islam propagated by the ISIS. Are the governments in the
West blind to this fact? Did they try to determine how and where the
attackers were radicalized? </span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">The answer to this
question partially lies in the report published in the German daily newspaper
"Die Welt" wherein the German Criminal Police Office (BKA) reported a
significant increase in Islamist threats. The agency tracked almost 500 threats
in the past year. It had tracked 497 instances of "threats" or
individuals with extremist views who could be suspected of carrying out
terrorist attacks. The agency added that an additional 339 Islamists were also
being tracked as "relevant persons," or individuals who may assist
and sympathize with terrorist causes.</span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">The report said that the
development marked a significant increase from numbers dating back to January
2015, when only 270 potentially violent Islamist individuals were registered in
Germany.</span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Austria's domestic intelligence
agency also reported that the number of suspected Islamists in the country had
risen, citing increased activity within the "Muslim Brotherhood"
terrorist group. The "Kleine Zeitung" daily newspaper examined a
particular increase in the state of Styria.</span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Focus
must be on Radical Islam and not Islamophobia</span></b></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">The editor-in-chief of
the French satirical magazine "Charlie Hebdo," Gerard Biard, said
that too much tolerance was partly to blame for the rise in Islamism across
Europe, accusing the political left of being complicit. He said it was
"scandalous" that leftwing movements were more interested in
defending "Muslims wearing the Burka than in equal pay."</span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">"Islamic propaganda
has managed to convince us that criticizing Islamism equates to criticizing Islam
itself and therefore qualifies as racism," Biard wrote in a speech cited
in Berlin.</span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">European governments
need to start acknowledging the fact that they have made a colossal blunder by
allowing all and sundry to enter Europe under the garb of refugees. Strangely
criminals, drug peddlers and terrorists have made their way to Europe, thanks
largely to Angela Merkel’s myopic policy. They need to further acknowledge that
these so-called ‘refugees’ pose a very serious threat to European security and
its liberal values and freedom. The Ansbach bomber was a Syrian refugee whose
application for asylum was rejected, the machete-wielding Syrian who killed a
pregnant woman at Reutlingen and the axe wielding teen Muhammad Riyad who
attacked passengers at Würzburg will do little to convince Germans that
‘refugees’ don’t pose a serious security risk. Trying to pass off every terror
attack as a hate crime or the attacker/s had history of mental illness will
undermine West’s war against the ISIS inspired terror attacks at home. (It is
reported that from the Orlando shooter to</span> <span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">the Nice attacker</span> <span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Bouhlel
and the Ansbach bomber had mental problems. </span><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Some analysts such as Max Abrahms have termed them "loon-wolves). Europe must start focusing on the
domestic jihadi threat posed by its own citizens and those who have entered the
continent posing as refugees and stop worrying about Islamophobia.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The biggest threat to Europe is radical
Islam, not Islamophobia. </span></div>
Kumarhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02571503236070897848noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8101059815715683400.post-30009849784018476062016-07-04T06:36:00.001-07:002016-07-04T06:36:30.894-07:00Bangladesh - From Secularism to Talibanization<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"> </span></b></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">(This
post was originally written in 2007. It has been updated in the light of the
recent terror attack on</span> </i><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">the <span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic;">Holey Artisan Bakery </span>and O Kitchen<span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic;">, an upscale eatery</span> in the wealthy
Gulshan neighbourhood of Dhaka on 1<sup>st</sup> July 2016)</span></i></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Holey
Artisan Bakery Attack</span></b></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">On Friday 1<sup>st</sup>
July 2016, around 21:20 local time, about 6 to 8 terrorists opened fire on the <i>Holey
Artisan Bakery </i><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">and O Kitchen</i><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic;">, an upscale eatery</span> in the wealthy
Gulshan neighbourhood of Dhaka, Bangladesh which houses several diplomatic
missions. They also threw bombs and took several dozen hostages and killed at
least four police officers in shootouts with police. They reportedly chanted
“Allahu Akbar” at the time of the attack. The assault was similar to the one
carried out by Pak-based LeT terrorists in Mumbai in November 2008 when two of
the ten Pakistani gunmen fired indiscriminately on diners in Leopold Café. According
to one witness, the terrorists executed foreign hostages akin to the terrorists
who executed <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">‘kufar’</i> in the September
2013 Westgate Shopping Mall attack in Nairobi.</span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">According to one account
at least six attackers entered the restaurant armed with bombs, guns and one
attacker had a sword. They opened fire and detonated several of the bombs
before taking many hostages, almost all foreigners.</span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Friday's attack took
place near the Nordic Club, where expatriates usually gathered. French ambassador
Sophie Aubert said the restaurant was "very popular" with diplomats
and other foreigners in Dhaka. Though no group claimed responsibility for the strike,
the Bangladeshi government blamed home-grown terror for the attack.</span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">After planning and
waiting through the night, armed forces joined RAB and police in the morning to
launch the assault.</span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Around 7:30am, security
forces stormed the café and five hostages, including women and children, were freed
minutes after the offensive began, a witness told bdnews24.com.</span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Heavy firing and
explosions continued for at least for an hour after the operation had begun to
free the hostages.</span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">According to Brig
General Nayeem Ashfaq Chowdhury 20 people were executed by Islamist terrorists
long before the commando operation commenced at 7:40 am.</span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">History</span></b></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">During the British rule,
the Wahabis led by one Syed Ahmed declared India 'Darul Harb'<a href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=8101059815715683400#_ftn1" name="_ftnref1" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn1;" title="">[1]</a> and
locked themselves in a war against the Sikhs in Punjab and against the British
in a bid to establish the 'Darul Harb' brand of Islam. The brand of Islam that
had been preached by the Sufis in the sub-continent was by and large liberal.
The Sufis were very tolerant towards other faiths and adopted certain elements
from Hinduism, Buddhism and the local culture, which helped spread Islam all
over India.</span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">In 1947, Pakistan
emerged as an independent state as a consequence of the partition of India.
Pakistan was divided into the Punjabi-dominated West and a Bengali-speaking
East. The Indian land mass divided the two wings of Pakistan. The
Bengali-dominated East Pakistan emerged as the independent state of Bangladesh
in 1971 after facing ruthless military repression at the hands of the Pakistani
Army. An indigenous nationalist movement, the Mukti Bahini with active Indian
assistance helped the people of East Pakistan achieve statehood.</span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">In its infancy, religion
had very little role to play in Bangladesh polity, primarily because the
founding father of Bangladesh, Sheikh Mujibur Rehman, following the Indian
model, had sought to make the state a secular democratic republic. However,
even during the turbulent period preceding the birth of Bangladesh, certain
sections of the East Pakistani society, especially members of the
Jamaat-e-Islami actively supported the Pakistani Army in perpetrating
atrocities and were subsequently accused of complicity in the massacres that
took place. Hence they were marginalised after the formation of Bangladesh.
Before democratic institutions could take roots, Sheikh Mujib was assassinated
and his regime overthrown in August 1975. In November 1975, General Ziaur
Rehman seized power. Gen. Ziaur Rahman and his followers met in Kurmitola cantonment
and drew the blueprint for a nationwide transformation from democratic
secularism to nationalism. Gen. Ziaur Rahman was abetted by many intellectuals
including newspaper editors, lawyers, barristers, educationists, businessmen,
etc., when the Pakistani trained military man had consolidated his power. He
sowed the seeds of radicalism by encouraging return of Islamist elements who
had collaborated with the Pakistani Army and built ties with the Jamaat. This
was done with a view to legitimizing his rule. General Ziaur Rehman was
assassinated in May 1981. There was a brief period of civilian rule under a
former Supreme Court Judge, Abdul Sattar. He was also overthrown in a military
coup in March 1982. General H.M. Ershad took over the reins of Bangladesh.
During his tenure, both society and state continued to be Islamicized. General
Ershad amended the constitution and declared Islam the state religion.
Bangladesh limped back to civilian rule after the military ruler was ousted as
a result of mass popular uprising. However, by this time the
"Military-Islamist Complex" had taken roots in Bangladesh. Bangladesh
had embarked on a journey to becoming Islamicized or more precisely
'Talibanized'. </span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">The
Militant Islamist Groups</span></b></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">In January 2005, a
Bangladeshi human rights group had claimed that 31 Islamic militant outfits
were operating in the country targetting non-Muslims and seeking to establish a
"greater Islamic nation" including parts of some adjacent Indian
states. </span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Jama'atul
Mujahideen Bangladesh (JMB)</span></b><span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"> – The Jama'atul Mujahideen Bangladesh (JMB)
is reported to be the youth front of Al Mujahideen, the parent organization
that began working in the mid 1990s and which has continued to remain obscure
even today. Other organizations, such as Jama'atul Jihad, JMB, Ahle Hadith
Andolan Bangladesh (AHAB), Ahle Hadith Jubo Shangha, Jagrata Muslim Janata
Bangladesh (JMJB), Harkat-ul-Jehad-al-Islami (HuJI), Hizbut Tawhid, Tawhidi
Janata, Islami Jubo Shangha, Islami Shangha, Al Falah A'am Unnayan Shanstha and
Shahadat-e al Hiqma are believed to be part of the Al Mujahideen network. JMB
was reported to have been formed in 1998 in the Jamalpur district. While the
exact origins of this group is not clear, its existence became known on May 20,
2002 with the arrest of eight Islamist militants at Parbatipur in the Dinajpur
district along with 25 petrol bombs and documents detailing the outfit's
activities. Subsequently, on February 13, 2003, the JMB is reported to have
carried out seven bomb explosions in the Chhoto Gurgola area of Dinajpur town
in which three persons were wounded. The Jama'atul Mujahideen Bangladesh (Party
of the Mujahideen) aims at establishing the rule of Islam in Bangladesh through
an armed struggle. The outfit is opposed to the establishment of democracy and
calls for the conduct of government under Islamic law. Thus the JMB's aim is to
replace the current state of Bangladesh with an Islamic State. The JMJB follows
the ideals of the Taliban militia and propagates a movement based on Jihad.</span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">On March 30, 2007, six
top militants of the JMB, including its 'supreme commander' Maulana Abdur
Rahman and second-in-command, Siddiqul Islam alias Bangla Bhai were executed in
different jails in Bangladesh. The other senior leaders of the outfit who were
hanged were Majlish-e-Shura (the highest decision-making body) members Abdul
Awal, Khaled Saifullah and Ataur Rahman Sunny and suicide squad member Iftekhar
Hasan Al-Mamun. All of them had been pronounced guilty by the Supreme Court of
involvement in the killing of two judges in Jhalakathi in November 2005.</span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Prior to the March 30,
2007 execution, JMB was led by a triumvirate consisting of its ‘supreme
commander’ Abdur Rahman, a former activist of the Jamaat-e-Islami, Siddiqul
Islam alias Bangla Bhai of the Jagrata Muslim Janata Bangladesh (JMJB) and
Muhammad Asadullah al-Ghalib, an Arabic language lecturer at the Rajshahi
University and chief of the Ahle Hadith Andolon Bangladesh (AHAB). Of these,
Maulana Rahman was projected as spiritual leader of the organisation while
Bangla Bhai functioned as the second-in-command and the outfit’s 'operational
chief'. The outfit is known to maintain about 10,000 fulltime and 100,000
part-time cadres. </span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">According to the
Bangladesh government, it was this group which was responsible for the attack
on the Holey Artisan Bakery in June 2016.</span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Harkat-ul-Jehad-al-Islami
(HuJI)</span></b><span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"> – The Harkat-ul-Jehad-al-Islami (HuJI) meaning Movement of
Islamic Holy War was established in 1992, reportedly with assistance from Osama
bin Laden’s International Islamic Front. It is a Sunni Islamic fundamentalist
organization whose activities extend not only within Bangladesh but also in
India. On April 30, 1992, several of the HuJI leaders addressed a press
conference at the Jatiya Press Club in Dhaka and demanded that Bangladesh be
converted into an Islamic State. The HuJI is led by Shawkat Osman alias Sheikh
Farid. Imtiaz Quddus is the general secretary of the outfit. HuJI aims to
establish Islamic Hukumat (rule) in Bangladesh by waging war and killing
progressive intellectuals. It draws inspiration from bin Laden and the
erstwhile Taliban regime of Afghanistan. The slogan, <i>Amra Sobai Hobo
Taliban, Bangla Hobe Afghanistan (We will all become Taliban and we will turn
Bangladesh into Afghanistan) </i>itself speaks volumes about the radicalisation
of Bangla society and polity. </span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">With an estimated 2,000
dedicated fighters among 15,000 odd members, HuJI is closely affiliated with Al
Qaeda and is a member of Bin Laden’s International Islamic Front. </span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">The coastal area
stretching from the port city of Chittagong south through Cox's Bazaar to the
Myanmarese border, notorious for piracy, smuggling and arms running, is the
principal area of activity of the HuJI. </span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">The madrassas have been
a major source of recruits for HuJI. The group reportedly maintains six camps
in the hilly areas of Chittagong, where its cadres are trained in the use of
weapons. Unconfirmed reports have also indicated that it maintains six training
camps near Cox's Bazaar. </span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">The HuJI cadres
allegedly also infiltrate frequently into the eastern corridor of India to
maintain contacts with terrorist and subversive outfits of the region. </span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Although there is no
authoritative information on the actual cadre strength, most reports mention it
to be around 15,000. Several of these recruits were trained in the Kormi and
Kasia areas of Bangladesh. Further, many hundred recruits were reportedly
trained at various training camps in Afghanistan, primarily during the reign of
the Taliban. </span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">The HuJI reportedly
receives financial assistance from Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and Afghanistan
through Muslim Non-Governmental Organisations in Bangladesh, including the
Adarsa Kutir, Al Faruk Islamic Foundation and Hataddin. </span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Since 2002, some of the
major terrorist strikes that have been carried out in India (outside Kashmir),
have been attributed to HuJI. It is reported to have the backing of some
sections of the Bangladesh polity, the army and intelligence agencies and may
have been engaged by ISI and other Pakistan based groups to carry out terrorist
activities within India.</span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Jagrata
Muslim Janata Bangladesh (JMJB)</span></b><span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"> – Jagrata Muslim Janata
Bangladesh (JMJB) meaning Awakened Muslim Masses of Bangladesh is an Islamist
vigilante outfit that espouses the ideals of the Taliban. It has been reported
in the Bangladeshi media that the JMJB is an outgrowth of the Islamist militant
outfit Jama'atul Mujahideen Bangladesh (JMB). </span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">When the JMJB first came
in the news in April 2004, it was also known by other names like Mujahidin
Alliance Council, Islami Jalsha and Muslim Raksha Mujahideen Oikya Parishad.</span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">JMJB does not approve of
the prevailing political system in Bangladesh and that it aspires to
"build a society based on the Islamic model laid out in Holy
Quran-Hadith." Its stated objective is neutralizing the left-wing
extremists, especially the cadres of the PBCP and its professed long-term goal
is to usher in an ‘Islamic revolution’ in Bangladesh through Jihad. </span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">The JMJB reportedly has
a three-tier organisation. The first tier of the outfit consists of activists
called Ehsar who are recruited on a full-time basis and act at the behest of
the leadership. The second tier, known as Gayeri Ehsar, has over 100,000
part-time activists. The third tier involves those who indirectly co-operate
with the JMJB.</span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">The JMJB created strong
bases mostly in north-west Bangladesh, in the districts of Rajshahi, Satkhira,
Naogaon, Bagerhat, Jessore, Chittagong, Joypurhat, Natore, Rangpur, Bogra,
Chittagong, and Khulna. It has allegedly spread its network to most Madrassas
(seminaries) and other educational institutions in these districts. </span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">The outfit also
established at least 10 camps at Atrai and Raninagar in the Naogaon district,
Bagmara in Rajshahi district, and Naldanga and Singra in Natore district. There
have been reports of JMJB recruits being given training through recorded
speeches of Osama bin Laden and the video footages of warfare training at the
Al Qaeda's Farooque camp (now defunct) in Afghanistan. </span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Some JMJB leaders
reportedly stated that the outfit is headquartered in Dhaka. However, media
reports indicated all activities of the organisation revolving around Jamalpur.</span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">JMJB is reported to have
300000 activists across the country and has about 10,000 full-time activists.</span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">JMJB cadres during their
vigilante operations in 2004 were seen with firearms. They also reportedly
wielded swords, other sharp weapons, hammers and hockey sticks. JMJB also had
access to crude explosives.</span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Purba
Banglar Communist Party (PBCP)</span></b><span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"> – Purba Banglar Communist
Party (PBCP) headed by Mofakkar Chowdhury is one of the many Maoist splinter
organizations in Bangladesh. It was formed in 1968 after splitting with the
Bangladesh Communist Party (BCP). It has been outlawed since the military
regime of Zia-ur-Rehman. However, there has been a spurt in the activities of
the PBCP since 2002. </span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Like Maoist groups
around the world, the objective of the PBCP is capturing state power through
armed struggle. Its draws inspiration from the Chinese revolution. In the
opinion of the PBCP, oppression by the people of the then West Pakistani was
the principal reason that lead to the liberation war in the territories of the
then East Pakistan following which Bangladesh was formed. The PBCP is strongly
opposed to the presence of feudal elements in Bangladesh. Ideologically, it is
closer to the Marxist-Leninist groups of India and desires to launch a joint
movement along with progressive parties in India, particularly the Naxalites of
West Bengal. The PBCP is hopeful that China would, at some time in the future,
provide significant assistance in realising its goals. The PBCP operates in
south-west Bangladesh, bordering the Indian State of West Bengal. Its presence
can be noticed in districts such as Khulna, Satkhira, Bagerhat, Magura,
Meherpur, Narail, Kushtia, Jessore, Jhenidah, Chuadanga and Pirojpur.</span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">PBCP cadres have reportedly been involved in acts of murder, robbery,
extortion, land grabbing and abduction for ransom. Like the mafia, they are
allegedly involved in settling land disputes in rural areas. In the process of
adjudicating disputes, PBCP cadres collect money through their strong-arm
tactics from both the parties to a dispute. In its strongholds, the PBCP levies
a ‘tax’ on civil contractors who undertake construction works such as laying
roads and bridges and constructing culverts and schools. This has resulted in
impeding development work in southwest Bangladesh. The PBCP also publishes a
journal Purba Bangla, meaning East Bengal.<br />
<br />
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Islami Chhatra Shibir</b> <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>- Islami Chhatra Shibir is the student wing of
the Jamaat-e-Islami Bangladesh, which came into existence in 1941.</span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">A person at the time of
joining the organisation is considered as Karmi, meaning worker. When a Karmi
meets a predefined standard of knowledge, rituals, moral status and leadership
quality, he is promoted to a Shathi meaning comrade. When a Shathi is able to
meet a higher standard of knowledge, rituals, moral status and leadership
quality, he is promoted to a Shadashawa meaning member.</span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Nurul Islam Bulbul is
the Central President of the ICS. Mohammed Nazrul Islam is the Secretary
General of the outfit. Other important leaders are: Kamal Ahmed Sikder, A S M
Faruq, Muhammad Mujibur Rahman Manju, Muhammad Raisul and A S M Ashraf Mahmud
Uzzal. The Executive Council is the highest decision-making body of the outfit.</span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">The group's objectives,
<i>inter alia</i>, are to change the existing system of education on the basis of
Islamic values, to inspire students to acquire Islamic knowledge and to prepare
them to take part in the struggle for establishing Islamic way of life. A very
important aim of the outfit is to establish an Islamist regime on the Taliban
model in Bangladesh similar to the one that existed in Afghanistan.
Consequently, the outfit is opposed to forces of modernization, secularism and
democracy. The group is one of the strongest student fronts in the Universities
of Chittagong, Dhaka, Rajshahi and Jahangirnagar. It is also emerging as a
dominant group in the Khulna and Sylhet Universities. Within the vast madrassa
(religious seminary) structure in Bangladesh, this group is reported to be a
dominant and uncontested organisation.</span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">The Shibir also been
maintaining close links with the Pakistani Inter Services Intelligence (ISI)
and has been working to support Islamist subversive agenda particularly in
areas bordering Bangladesh. It is also reportedly has close links with various
terrorist outfits operating in South Asia and Afghanistan.</span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Ansarullah
Bangla Team (ABT)</span></b><span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"> – The Ansarullah Bangla Team (ABT) also known
as Ansar Bangla is an extremist organisation which has been claimed to be
linked to the Islami Chhatra Shibir, the student wing of Jamaat-e-Islami party.
The members of the organization have been implicated in brutal attacks and
murders of bloggers from 2013 to 2015 and a bank robbery in April 2015. It was
outlawed by the Bangladesh government in May 2015. The members were allegedly
involved in the killing of Ahmed Rajib Haider in February 2013. Four other
members were arrested for the attack on blogger Asif Mohiuddin. They were also
involved in the murder of three bloggers – Avijit Roy, Oyasiqur Rahman Babu and
Ananta Bijoy Das and murder of Professor of Sociology AKM Shafiul Islam.
According to the Terrorism Research & Analysis Consortium, the group is an
al Qaeda inspired extremist group which started its activities around 2007 as
the Jama’atul Muslemin. When funding by NGOs ended, it re-emerged during 2013
as the ABT.</span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">The ABT’s ultimate goal has been to take control of
Bangladesh through an armed jihad and implement Sharia rule. In August 2013 Bangladeshi
authorities arrested radical cleric Mufti Jasimuddin Rahmani, an ideological
leader of ABT, along with dozens of his followers in Barguna, a south western
district of Bangladesh. Rahmani and the ABT have established a strong presence
on the Internet and have engaged in not just spreading the group’s propaganda
but also translating and distributing material produced by Al-Qaeda and the
American-Yemeni ideologue Anwar Al-Awlaki who had been killed in October
2011 in Yemen by a drone strike.</span><span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"></span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><br />
<a href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=8101059815715683400#_ftn2" name="_ftnref2" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn2;" title="">[1]
"Abode of War." A land ruled by infidels that might, through war,
become the "Abode of Islam," dar-ul-Islam. In the nineteenth centur</a>y,
some Muslims argued that India had become dar-ul-harb because of British rule.</span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Source:<br />
1. South Asian Terrorism Portal www.satp.org<br />
2. Wikipedia </span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">3. Bangladesh: an Emerging Centre for Terrorism in Asia by Sajjan M Gohel (Terrorism Research Initiative - Perspectives on Terrorism Vol 8, No 3 (2014) </span><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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Kumarhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02571503236070897848noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8101059815715683400.post-59824689937707221982016-03-26T06:18:00.000-07:002016-03-26T06:18:08.138-07:00 Terror Attacks in Brussels - A Deep-rooted Malaise<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<b><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; font-weight: normal; line-height: 115%;">Four days after one of Europe’s most wanted terror suspects - Salah Abdeslam,
the only surviving terrorist of the November 13 attacks in Paris - was captured
in a joint French-Belgian police operation in Brussels, multiple bomb attacks left
the Belgian capital reeling.</span></i></b></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><i> Two blasts, minutes apart, tore through the departures
area of Zaventem airport — the main Brussels airport — shortly after 8 a.m.
local time. </i></span></div>
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<br /></div>
<i>
</i><br />
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<i><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"> Within an hour, an explosion hit a train near Maalbeek
metro station, close to the EU institutions and around 350 meters from where
European leaders hold their summits. </span></i></div>
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<br /></div>
<i>
</i><br />
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<i><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"> Belgian authorities confirmed one explosion at the airport
was caused by a suicide bomber. A second was caused by a bomb detonated
from a distance.</span></i></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Two blasts targeted the
main hall of Zaventem Airport at around 8:00am (0700 GMT), with prosecutor
Frederic Van Leeuw saying the assault likely involved at least one suicide
bomber. </span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">A third hit Maalbeek
metro station near the European Union's main buildings, just as commuters were
making their way to work in rush hour.</span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">"A man shouted a
few words in Arabic and then I heard a huge blast," airport baggage
security officer Alphonse Lyoura told AFP, his hands bloodied.</span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">There was no immediate
claim of responsibility for Tuesday's attacks, and Belgian Prime Minister
Charles Michel said there was no immediate evidence linking key Paris suspect
Salah Abdeslam to them. After his arrest Abdeslam told authorities that he had
created a new network and was planning new attacks.</span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">The capture of Abdeslam
in Belgium was hailed as a breakthrough in the police investigation into the
November 13 terrorist attacks in Paris. However, there was no let up in the
hunt for other accomplices of Abdeslam who were identified as Mohamed Abrini, a
30-year-old of Moroccan origin and 24-year-old Najim Laachraoui who had
travelled to Syria in 2013. According to investigators, Laachraoui had been
using the false name of Soufiane Kayal - the name with which he rented an
apartment in Auvelais in Belgium and from where the terror attacks were
planned. Laachraoui also went under the same false name when he crossed the
border between Austria and Hungary on September 9th when he was travelling with
Abdeslam and Mohamed Belkaïd, a third terror suspect who was killed in a
shoot-out with police in Belgium last Tuesday.</span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">There is bewilderment
about the choice of Belgium as a target of ISIS latest attack. Apart from the
fact it houses the headquarters of NATO and EU it is not a frontline military
power; on the contrary it is the logistical hub of the Islamic State and serves
as a launch pad from where IS could carry out its strikes throughout the
European continent. While it may not be possible to know why IS targeted
Brussels the following factors made Brussels vulnerable to a terror strike.</span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><b>Belgium’s Complex Polity</b></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><b> </b>
</span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Belgium has the
trappings of western political structures, but in practice those structures are
defective and have long been so. The academics Kris Deschouwer and Lieven De
Winter gave an authoritative account of the development of political corruption
and clientelism in an essay published in 1998. Almost from the beginning, they
explain, the state suffered problems of political legitimacy.</span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Belgium came late, by
western European standards, to statehood. In Belgium there were already
existing allegiances to the locality, and although Belgium’s liberal elite
threw off Dutch rule in 1830, it could neither uproot nor supplant these
attachments to the local community, often intertwined with the Roman Catholic
Church. So the formal structure of a Belgian state was erected but framing
within it the cultural, social and welfare structures of the Church’s state
within a state. Ranged against the Christian Democrats and the socialists were
the anti-clerical and middle-class liberals, who constituted the third corner
in Belgium’s political triangle. They did not have the same popular support, or
the equivalent social structures. That was followed in due course by the
development of a socialist/labor movement with its rival structures for mutual
assurance, cultural associations. Ranged against the Christian Democrats and
the socialists were the anti-clerical and middle-class liberals, who
constituted the third corner in Belgium’s political triangle. They did not have
the same popular support, or the equivalent social structures.</span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Eventually, the formal
state developed its own services in areas like education, health care and other
expressions of a welfare state, but it was obliged to do so respecting (and indeed
using) the structures of the political parties. </span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Administrations were
divided by their political allegiances. Politicians were masters of patronage,
with jobs and money at their disposal, and, as a consequence, public service
suffered.</span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Although attempts at
reforms were made, in many cases those reforms were not deep-rooted, but
involved formalizing the division of spoils, for instance, to allocate control
of certain jobs between different political parties.</span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Belgium’s
unique geographical and linguistic status</span></b></div>
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<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Belgium is a small country of about11 million people which
is divided by language and culture. Slightly more than half of Belgium's
population is Flemish. They speak Dutch and live in the north, in Flanders.
Less than half are French and live in the southern region of Wallonia. The
framework of the Belgium government and the fact that the country's security
and intelligence agencies are divided internally makes it relatively easier for
these kinds of attacks to happen.</span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">The country at every level and almost every public service
-- schools, hospitals, even policing -- is split along linguistic lines. There
are French schools and Flemish schools, French hospitals and Flemish hospitals.</span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Brussels is the capital of Belgium and Flanders, but
Brussels is French-speaking.</span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Lack
of intelligence sharing and poor co-ordination internally and within the EU</span></b></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">At least one of the
attackers Brahim (or Ibrahim) el-Bakroui was deported by Turkey to the
Netherlands in 2015 with a clear indication that he was a jihadist. Yet no
action seems to have been taken either by the Dutch or the Belgian authorities.
There have been repeated calls for a pan-European intelligence agency that
would effectively share information from different countries. Members of the
European Parliament denounced, again, the lack of coordination.</span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">According to experts,
even within states, intelligence-gathering agencies – France alone has 33 of
them – have trouble cooperating. </span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">"Is
it not in the nature of intelligence agencies to keep the information for themselves?"</span></i><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"> asked
Jean-Marie Delarue, who until recently headed the French agency that reviews
surveillance requests from these intelligence services.<br />
<br />
"Information is power," Delarue said in a recent interview. "In
intelligence, one only has enemies, no friends."</span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Cross-border cooperation
would probably have helped prevent Tuesday's attacks.</span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Europe has had a
"counter-terrorism coordinator" for much of the last 10 years, but
this fact-finding institution was dismissed as "weak" in a recent
French parliamentary report and as "having no operational capacity to
offer."</span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">In the absence of an
effective centralized European counter-terrorism agency, it is up to the member
states to cooperate with one another. Yet they do so only haphazardly.</span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">There are plenty of
databases, for instance, but the information they contain is either incomplete
or inaccessible, numerous officials complained.</span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">A fundamental one that
contains criminal suspects' surveillance records — the Schengen Information
System, or SIS — is only weakly supported by most of the member countries. The
French parliamentary report last month said the French internal intelligence
agency "is the only one that regularly feeds this database" and
criticized "the very spotty nature of the information furnished by"
other European nations.</span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">"There is nothing
automatic about what goes into the SIS," said Francois Heisbourg, a French
intelligence expert. He said a decade of European squabbling over the issue had
still not resulted in the creation of a minimal tool, the Passenger Name
Record, of airplane travelers.</span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">It is not just the main
SIS database that is woefully lacking.<br />
<br />
Some 5,000 EU citizens are known to have traveled to Iraq and Syria to join the
Islamic State and other groups. Yet the Europol database "contains only 2,786
verified foreign terrorist fighters entered by EU member states," the counter-terrorism coordinator pointed out in a recent report.<br />
<br />
"I think the biggest problem lies in the different levels of
professionalism among the security services in Europe," according to Guido
Steinberg, of the German Institute for International and Security Affairs.</span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">The French
parliamentary report ruefully acknowledged, without citing a specific assault,
systematic "gaps in the transmission of information, which, if they had
been realized in time, could have forestalled the attack" in Paris.</span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">The cross-border
cooperation failures in the case of the November Paris attacks are a telling
case study. Belgium was unable to apprehend Salah Abdeslam, the Belgian-born
French citizen of Moroccan descent, one of the key plotters of the Paris
attacks swiftly considering the fact that he was stopped the morning after the
attack near the Belgian border but was not detained. </span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Geographical proximity</span></b></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"> </span></b><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"> </span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Brussels' proximity to major European cities and historic
lack of internal cohesion makes it simpler for jihadists to move about without
much impediment. Brussels, the capital of the European Union, is just a short
drive away from a host of major cities: Paris, Amsterdam, Cologne, Strasbourg,
Frankfurt and Berlin can be reached within a matter of few hours by road or
rail.</span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"></span></span><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Belgium’s <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Jihadi link</span></b><br />
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"> </span></b>
<br />
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Many extremists in
Belgium have been inspired by the once-powerful radical group Sharia4Belgium,
which targeted vulnerable and disenfranchised communities marred by rampant
crime and unemployment. </span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">The group gained
prominence in 2010 and was disbanded five years later after a trial that
resulted in its designation as a terror organization. <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">[<b>Sharia4Belgium</b> was a Belgian radical Salafist organisation
which called for Belgium to convert itself into an Islamist state. In February
2015 the group was designated a terrorist organization by a Belgian judge, and
its spokesman, Fouad Belkacem, was sentenced to 12 years in prison].</i></span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Today, Belgium has the
highest per capita of foreign fighters of any Western European country. Of the
5000-6000 Europeans who fought in Syria up to 550 are reportedly Belgian
nationals. </span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Over the last two years
there had been a Molenbeek link to almost all the terrorist incidents in Europe
including the May 2014 shooting by Mehdi Nemmouche at the Jewish museum in
Brussels, Charlie Hebdo attack (January 2015), the failed attack by Ayoub
el-Khazzani in August 2015 on a Thalys train. Salah Abdeslam, one of the key plotters
of the Paris attack was arrested from Molenbeek a few days ago. Thus all the
perpetrators of the myriad terror attacks had ties to Molenbeek.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">The inability of Belgian
security services to control the flow of fighters traveling to Syria/Iraq to
fight alongside IS, and -- perhaps more worryingly -- their failure to track
them on return, only indicates that many jihadists have gone unnoticed.
Authorities in several neighboring countries believe other attacks are likely. The
European Union needs to have re-look at the migration policy and Schengen
regime and to have in place an intelligence coordination committee for
dissemination of intelligence inputs to thwart attacks in future.</span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
Kumarhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02571503236070897848noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8101059815715683400.post-37819728432940959852016-02-12T03:30:00.001-08:002016-02-12T03:30:04.970-08:00Termination of treaties<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<![endif]--><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">There
are number of ways by which treaties may be terminated or suspended. The
methods of termination or suspension of a treaty and its effects are enumerated
in Articles 45, 54, 56, 57, 59-62, 70 and 72.
</span></span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;">
<br /></div>
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">
</span></span><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"><b>Termination by consent and
by treaty provision</b></span></span></div>
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">
</span></span><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;">
<br /></div>
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">
</span></span><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">Articles
54 and 57 stipulate that a treaty may be terminated or suspended in conformity
with the provisions of that treaty or at any time by consent of all the parties
after consultation with the other contracting states. Where, however, a treaty
does not contain any provision regarding termination or expressly provide for denunciation
or withdrawal, Article 56 provides that a state may only denounce or withdraw
from that treaty where the parties intended to admit such a possibility or
where such right is implicit by the nature of the treaty.</span></span></div>
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">
</span></span><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;">
<br /></div>
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">
</span></span><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">A
treaty may terminate if its purposes and objects have been fulfilled or if it
is limited in time and that time has elapsed.</span></span></div>
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">
</span></span><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;">
<br /></div>
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">
</span></span><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">Article
58 of the Convention stipulates that two or more parties to a multilateral
treaty may conclude an agreement to suspend the operation of provisions of the
treaty, temporarily and as between themselves alone, if:</span></span></div>
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">
</span></span><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">(a)
the possibility of such a suspension is provided for by the treaty; or</span></span></div>
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">
</span></span><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">(b)
the suspension in question is not prohibited by the treaty and: </span></span></div>
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">
</span></span><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">(i)
does not affect the enjoyment by the other parties of their rights under the
treaty or the performance of their obligations;</span></span></div>
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">
</span></span><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">(ii)
is not incompatible with the object and purpose of the treaty.</span></span></div>
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">
</span></span><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;">
<br /></div>
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">
</span></span><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">Article
59 of the Convention provides that where the parties to a treaty conclude
another treaty relating to the same subject matter, then the earlier treaty
will be deemed to have been terminated where it appears that the matter is to
be governed by the later agreement or where the provisions of the later treaty
are so incompatible with those of the earlier treaty that the two treaties are
not capable of being applied at the same time.</span></span></div>
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">
</span></span><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;">
<br /></div>
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">
</span></span><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"><b>Termination or suspension
as a consequence of breach</b></span></span></div>
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">
</span></span><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;">
<br /></div>
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">
</span></span><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">An
obvious corollary to the breach of a treaty is that the party adversely
affected by the breach is entitled to terminate the treaty. However, this right
as in the case of a breach of contract may be waived by the party affected. Where
a breach occurs in a bilateral treaty, the aggrieved state may consider the
breach as a ground for terminating the treaty or suspending its operation
wholly or in part.<b><a href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=8101059815715683400#_ftn1" name="_ftnref1" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span>[1]</span></span></span></span></a></b>
Where a material breach occurs in a multilateral treaty the breach entitles the
other parties by unanimous agreement to suspend the operation of the treaty in
whole or in part or to terminate it either in the relations between themselves
and the defaulting state or as between all the parties. Secondly, where a party
is specially affected by the breach, it is entitled to invoke it as a ground
for suspending the operation of the treaty in whole or in part in the relations
between itself and the defaulting state. Article 60 (3) states that a material
breach of a treaty consists in either a repudiation of the treaty not
sanctioned by the Convention or the violation of a provision essential to the
accomplishment of the object or purpose of the treaty. The latter portion of
sub-clause 3 was applied in the Rainbow Warrior Case<b><a href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=8101059815715683400#_ftn2" name="_ftnref2" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span><span><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span><span>[2]</span></span></span></span></span></span></a></b>
where pursuant to an agreement between New Zealand and France (concluded in the
form of exchange of letters) of 9 July 1986, France was under an obligation to
keep two of its agents, guilty of bombing the Greenpeace ship the Rainbow
Warrior in July 1985, on the French military facility island of Hao for a
minimum period of three years was held to have constituted the object or
purpose of the above agreement. France permitted the agents to leave the island
(for medical reasons) before the expiry of the three-year period.</span></span></div>
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">
</span></span><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;">
<br /></div>
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">
</span></span><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"><b>Supervening impossibility
of performance</b></span></span></div>
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">
</span></span><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;">
<br /></div>
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">
</span></span><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">Where
the performance of a treaty is rendered impossible due to the permanent
disappearance or destruction of an object indispensable for the execution of
the treaty, a party may invoke the provisions of Article 61 and validly
terminate or withdraw from it. If however, the impossibility is temporary, it
may be invoked for suspending the operation of the treaty. If impossibility is
as a result of a breach by a party either of an obligation under the treaty or
of any other international obligation owed to any other party to the treaty,
then impossibility may not be invoked by that party as a ground for
terminating, withdrawing from or suspending the operation of the treaty.</span></span></div>
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">
</span></span><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;">
<br /></div>
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">
</span></span><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"><b><i>Rebus
sic stantibus</i></b><b> or fundamental change of circumstances</b></span></span></div>
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">
</span></span><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;">
<br /></div>
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">
</span></span><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">The
doctrine <i>rebus sic stantibus</i> is a
principle of customary international law that provides that where a fundamental
change of circumstance has taken place since an agreement was concluded, a
party to that agreement may withdraw from or terminate it. It is essentially an
"escape clause" that makes an exception to the general rule of pacta
sunt servanda – promises must be kept. Article 62 of the Convention
incorporates this principle although this doctrine is never mentioned by name.
Article 62 provides the only two justifications of the invocation of <i>rebus
sic stantibus</i>: first, that the circumstances existing at the time of the
conclusion of the treaty were indeed objectively essential to the obligations
of treaty (sub-paragraph A) and the instance wherein the change of
circumstances has had a radical effect on the obligations of the treaty
(sub-paragraph B).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;">
<br /></div>
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">
</span></span><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">If
the parties to a treaty had contemplated for the occurrence of the changed
circumstance the doctrine does not apply and the provision remains in effect. <i><span>Clausula
rebus sic stantibus</span></i> only relates to changed circumstances that were
never contemplated by the parties. This principle is clarified in the Fisheries
Jurisdiction Case (<span>United Kingdom v.
Iceland</span>, 1973)<b><a href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=8101059815715683400#_ftn3" name="_ftnref3" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span><span><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span><span>[3]</span></span></span></span></span></span></a></b>. <span></span>In that case, in 1972, Iceland attempted
to extend its exclusive fisheries zone from 12 miles to 50 miles. United
Kingdom objected to the extension of the zone by Iceland and the dispute
resulted in what came to be known as the “Cod War” The International Court of
Justice in that case observed:</span></span></div>
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">
</span></span><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;">
<br /></div>
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">
</span></span><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"><i>It is, notes the Court, admitted in
international law that if a fundamental change of the circumstances which
induced parties to accept a treaty radically transforms the extent of the
obligations undertaken, this may, under certain conditions, afford the party
affected a ground for invoking the termination or suspension of the treaty.</i></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;">
<br /></div>
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">
</span></span><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">In
this case the Court considered whether the agreement of 1961 between Iceland
and the United Kingdom, certain provisions of which were in issue in the
proceedings before the Court, had come to an end due to fundamental change of
circumstances affecting fisheries and fishing techniques and legal opinion on
the extent of the jurisdiction. Insofar as the fundamental change of circumstances
affecting fisheries and fishing techniques were concerned, the Court did not
find it necessary to decide whether the changes were fundamental, and held that
in any case the alleged changes could not affect the only provision in the
agreement with which the Court was concerned, providing for submission of
disputes to the Court. The change of circumstances to give rise to a ground for
invoking termination of a treaty, it was also necessary that it should have
resulted in a radical transformation of the extent of the obligations still to
have been performed. The change must have increased the burden of the
obligations to be executed to the extent of rendering the performance something
essentially different from the one originally undertaken. The Court did not
consider that condition to have been satisfied. As to the change in the legal
opinion on the extent of the fisheries jurisdiction, the Court observed that
‘changes in the law may under certain circumstances constitute valid grounds
for invoking a change of circumstances affecting the duration of a treaty’.
Nevertheless, the Court held that the fact Iceland may have entered into the
agreement in order to obtain immediate recognition of a 12-mile exclusive
fisheries zone, and that such a 12-mile zone may no longer be in dispute
between the parties, did not mean that the agreement could be regarded as
terminated. The object of the agreement was wider than mere recognition of the
12-mile zone and although some of the motives which may have persuaded Iceland
to enter into the agreement might not be in existence, it did not justify the
repudiation of those parts of the agreement, the object and purpose of which
had remained unchanged. The Court also noted that the agreement was in part
executed and in part executor, one of the parties having obtained benefit from
the executed provisions of the treaty. Hence it was inadmissible to allow that
party to put an end to obligations which were accepted under the treaty by way
of a <i>quid pro quo</i> for the provisions
which the other party had already executed.</span></span></div>
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">
</span></span><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;">
<br /></div>
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">
</span></span><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"><b>Consequences of termination
or suspension of a treaty</b></span></span></div>
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">
</span></span><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;">
<br /></div>
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">
</span></span><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">Article
70 provides for consequences of termination of a treaty:</span></span></div>
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">
</span></span><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">1.
Unless the treaty otherwise provides or the parties otherwise agree, the
termination of a treaty under its provisions or in accordance with the present
Convention:</span></span></div>
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">
</span></span><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">(a)
releases the parties from any obligation further to perform the treaty;</span></span></div>
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">
</span></span><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">(b)
does not affect any right, obligation or legal situation of the parties created
through the execution of the treaty prior to its termination.</span></span></div>
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">
</span></span><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">2.
If a State denounces or withdraws from a multilateral treaty, paragraph 1
applies in the relations between that State and each of the other parties to
the treaty from the date when such denunciation or withdrawal takes effect.</span></span></div>
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">
</span></span><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;">
<br /></div>
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">
</span></span><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">Termination
of a treaty, thus, unless otherwise provided, releases the parties from any
performing any future obligations, but does not affect any right, obligation or
legal situation created through execution of the treaty prior to its
termination. If a treaty is declared void because it conflicts with a
peremptory norm there is a duty cast on the parties to eliminate as far as possible
the consequences of any act performed in reliance on such offending provision
and with bringing their mutual relations into conformity with the peremptory
norm of general international law. </span></span></div>
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">
</span></span><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;">
<br /></div>
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">
</span></span><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">Article
71(2) provides that if a treaty becomes void and terminates under article 64,
the termination of the treaty, the parties are released from any further
obligation to perform the treaty, but the rights, obligations and legal
situation of the parties created prior to the termination are not affected,
provided that those rights, obligations or situations may thereafter be
maintained only to the extent that their maintenance is not in itself in
conflict with the new peremptory norm of general international law.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;">
<br /></div>
<div style="mso-element: footnote-list;">
<br clear="all" />
<hr align="left" size="1" width="33%" />
<div id="ftn1" style="mso-element: footnote;">
<div class="MsoFootnoteText">
<a href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=8101059815715683400#_ftnref1" name="_ftn1" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn1;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-US;">[1]</span></span></span></span></a> Article
60 (1)</div>
</div>
<div id="ftn2" style="mso-element: footnote;">
<div class="MsoFootnoteText">
<a href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=8101059815715683400#_ftnref2" name="_ftn2" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn2;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-US;">[2]</span></span></span></span></a> Rainbow
Warrior (New Zealand v France) 1990 82 ILR 499</div>
</div>
<div id="ftn3" style="mso-element: footnote;">
<div class="MsoFootnoteText">
<a href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=8101059815715683400#_ftnref3" name="_ftn3" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn3;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-US;">[3]</span></span></span></span></a> <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>ICJ Rep (1973) p3</div>
</div>
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<![endif]-->Kumarhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02571503236070897848noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8101059815715683400.post-88846409480411834112016-01-13T05:15:00.000-08:002016-01-13T05:15:48.057-08:00Obama's State of the Union<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Obama tried to highlight
his so-called foreign policy achievements in his final State of the Union (SOTU), when in
reality the conflicts around the globe had risen sharply and two states, Russia
and China posed a direct challenge to the US and Putin, in particular,
challenged the global order with Moscow’s continued intervention in Ukraine and
Syria. The SOTU came at a time when ten US Navy servicemen were seized by Iran
in the Persian Gulf and when the majority of Americans were probably re-living
the horrors of the Iran Hostage Crisis under another Democrat, Jimmy Carter.
The Chief Executive instead of addressing the issue of the sailors in Iranian
custody patted himself for the flawed Iran deal and how he had averted a war in
the Gulf. Arizona Sen. John McCain, once Obama's GOP challenger for the
presidency, blasted the speech for not including any reference to the incident
in the Persian Gulf.</span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">"Ten American
sailors have been taken into custody in Iran," he said in a statement.
"But President Obama completely omitted this latest example of Iran's
provocative behavior so as not to interfere with his delusional talking points
about his dangerous nuclear deal with Iran.</span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">House Majority Leader
Kevin McCarthy also slammed the omission.</span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">"I was very
concerned that he's missing where the challenge of the world is with security
-- he sits and talks positively about Iran when they just took 10 of our Navy
sailors," he said after the speech.</span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Never in the history of
the US was a president more delusional than this man; he has had very little
understanding of international affairs and US foreign policy – to give an
example, in 2014 in an interview to David Remnick (New Yorker) he referred to
the IS as a jv squad – <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">“I think the analogy we use around here sometimes,
and I think is accurate, is if a JV team puts on Lakers uniforms,
that doesn’t make them Kobe Bryant. I think there is a distinction
between the capacity and reach of a bin Laden and a network that is actively
planning major terrorist plots against the homeland versus jihadists who are
engaged in various local power struggles and disputes, often sectarian.”</i>
Recent polls show that about half of Americans disapprove of Obama’s handling
of world affairs, largely thanks to fear over worldwide terrorist attacks by
the Islamic State and al Qaeda. But although Obama spoke at length about the
terrorist threat to the U.S., he mostly downplayed it, warning against
“over-the-top claims that this is World War III.”</span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">In his SOTU he did not
even make a reference to the Israeli-Palestinian issue and his own tense
relations with the Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu. Obama made only a passing
reference to Afghanistan, a year after he boasted moments into his 2015 State
of the Union address that “for the first time since 9/11, our combat mission in
Afghanistan is over.” That remains officially true, but 15 Americans have died
in the country since October as the U.S. takes on a growing combat role to
support a struggling Afghan army against a resurgent Taliban. And he dedicated
just one line to Syria’s brutal civil war, saying only that the U.S. is
“partnering with local forces and leading international efforts to help that
broken society pursue a lasting peace.” The country is on the verge of breaking
up as a result of a four year civil war and the US president who saw Iraq in
Syria and dithered hopes for an enduring peace. This is height of his delusion.</span></div>
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<br /></div>
Kumarhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02571503236070897848noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8101059815715683400.post-31081691716106220012015-12-24T05:47:00.001-08:002015-12-24T05:47:25.459-08:00Turkey in the Crosshairs<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">The
Obama Administration has often emphasised the critical importance of Turkey's
role and participation in the anti-Islamic State coalition. A special
presidential envoy for the coalition said that the US cannot succeed against
the Daesh/Islamic State without Turkey. Is the Obama Administration naive? Or
does it wilfully ignore Turkey's IS links?</span></i></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Nearly a fortnight prior
to the Paris attacks, the Islamic State (IS) claimed responsibility for the
downing of a Russian commercial plane carrying tourists from the Egyptian sea
side resort of Shram-al Shaikh to St. Petersburg while it was flying over the
Sinai. Russia had vowed to bring to justice the perpetrators responsible for
the terrorist act. The November 13 Paris attacks not only brought about a unity
amongst the members of the European Union but Russia too expressed solidarity
with France in its fight against the IS. While Russian solidarity was welcome,
its participation militarily was worrisome for some of the coalition members,
essentially because it has been its stated objective to prop up the regime of
Bashar al-Assad. <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">(Russian intervention
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">On 17 November 2015, in
the wake of the attack on the Russian commercial jet over the Sinai and the
Paris attacks, according to the Russian defence minister</span><span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial;">′</span><span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri;">s public
report to the president of Russia Vladimir Putin, Russia employed TU-160, TU-95
MSM and TU-22M3 long range strategic bombers to hit what he claimed were the IS
targets in Raqqa, Deir ez-Zor as well as ta</span><span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">rgets in the provinces of
Aleppo and Idlib.</span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Downing
the SU-24 and its Consequences</span></b></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">In the course of its
anti-IS operations, a Russian Sukhoi Su-24 bomber was shot down by F-16
fighters belonging to the Turkish Air Force on 24 November 2015.
According to Turkey’s claims presented to the UN Security council, two
planes, whose nationalities were unknown to them at the time, violated Turkish
airspace over the Yayladaği province up to 1.36 miles for 17 seconds. The
planes were given 10 warnings within the span of 5 minutes to change their
course. According to Turkey, the planes disregarded the warnings and were
subsequently fired upon by Turkish F-16s patrolling the area. After the Turkish
fire, one of the planes left Turkish airspace and the other crashed into Syrian
territory. The Russian Ministry of Defense denied that any of their planes had
violated Turkey's airspace, claiming they had been flying south of the
Yayladaği province.</span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">This incident led to
escalation of tensions between the <span style="color: black;">Russians and
Turkey and the North Atlantic Alliance of which Turkey is a member. According
to Group Captain (Retd) PI Muralidharan the interception by the F-16s were
pre-meditated. He explains: <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">"From
the track chart that has been shared with the media by Turkish Foreign Ministry
it is clear that the engagement by the F-16 was premeditated. The Russian SU-24
hardly transgressed about 10 kilometres of Turkish airspace in a linear
fashion. At the combat speeds that fighters fly, this would have given at the
most 20-25 seconds (at 6 kilometres, which is the reported altitude of the
SU-24). This would be far too short a time for the entire intercept drill to be
executed. Furthermore, if missile flight time is included, this timeframe would
shrink further to just approximately 15 seconds. Can an ideal air defence
intercept take place in this compressed timeframe? No, it cannot. Even if the
entire identification process preceded the missile launch, clearly the Turkish
F-16 pilot must have been pre-positioned by his controlling radar or Airborne
Warning and Control System (AWACS) in a vantageous position relative to the
SU-24, shooting it as soon as it crossed the border, theoretically that
is." </i></span></span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">What caused particular
chagrin in Moscow was Ankara’s determination to say from the outset that it
deliberately shot down the plane instead of going for a face-saving
explanation. Since then, Ankara has taken a largely defiant posture towards
Russia. </span><span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">That Turkish President <b>Recep Tayyip
Erdoğan</b></span><b><span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">
boasted</span></b><span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><b> he himself gave the order to fire</b> only
made things worse.</span><span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"> While subsequently President Erdoğan has
expressed regret and said that he was “truly saddened” by the downing, he refused
to issue an apology as demanded of him by Moscow. On the contrary, he has said
that those who violate Turkish airspace should be the ones to apologise.</span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">The Russian military, in response to the downing of their aircraft
deployed its advanced S-400 air defense missile system to the Syrian airbase of
Hmeimim (Latakia province), only 18 miles from the Turkish border. This is a
military game changer, with a senior Israeli officer describing its deployment
as his country’s “worst nightmare.” With a radius of 250 miles
and the ability to target up to 36 aircraft or cruise missiles
simultaneously, Russia now possesses the capability to take down a Turkish
plane any time it wishes. It also eliminates the possibility that the West
could establish a no-fly zone over northern Syria — a step long demanded by
Ankara. Putin also ordered Russian air-to-air fighter jets to accompany its
bombers on all flights over Syrian airspace thereby enabling Russia to shoot
down a Turkish jet on the Turkish-Syrian border, and then assert, after the
fact, that it was close to attacking a Russian plane. </span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">At the heart of this incident lies the fundamental
difference between Russia and Turkey over Assad. Russia supports Assad’s regime
while Turkey is one of Assad’s staunchest opponents. The downing of the SU-24
was nothing less than the ongoing proxy war between Russia and Turkey for a
moment becoming a hot one. Beyond the emotions, it serves Kremlin’s strategic
objectives in Syria to take an unforgiving line against Turkey as it
puts pressure on Turkey to step back from supporting anti-Assad rebels.</span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<b><span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Turkey's
flawed foreign policy</span></b></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<b><span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"> </span></b><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"> </span></b></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">The
neo-Ottoman aspirations of incumbent Turkish President Erdoğan’s
ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP), given its recent improved showing
in the presidential polls, have been the guiding force in Ankara’s foreign
policy. Its Syrian policy has been tumultuous ranging from cultivating Assad in
the mid-2000s to seeking his removal in 2011 when the Syrian uprising began.
Turkey had appealed to the US to intervene in Syria and to oust Assad. However,
Obama, who had no intention of deploying forces in the Middle East, dithered.
With Ankara's Syria policy in disarray, it decided to turn a blind eye to the
increasing number of radicalised young men who used Turkish territory to wage a
holy war against Assad.</span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">American and European
officials first raised concerns in 2012 that jihadists were using Ataturk
International Airport in Istanbul to make their way to the Turkish city of
Gaziantep before heading into Syrian territory to join the IS in its fight
against the Syrian regime. But the Turks dragged their feet on imposing border
controls, and instead charged that Europe was not providing them timely intelligence
about the IS sympathisers from Belgium, Germany and France entering Turkey. </span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Over time, extremism
became a veritable instrument of Turkish statecraft—and also, not surprisingly,
a threat within Turkey’s borders. Turkey, along with another problematic
American<span style="mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"> </span>ally, Saudi Arabia, </span><span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">provided support </span><span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">to
Ahrar al-Sham, which in turn allegedly provided assistance to Jabhat al Nusra,
both Syrian rebel groups that are linked to Al Qaeda. And while Ankara might
think it can rein in these groups, it clearly cannot: Within Turkey’s borders,
extremists have built up their own infrastructure, including communications
networks, safe houses, medical facilities and illicit commerce that exist to
support the fight in Syria. It would be naive to think that this could not be
used in a fight against Turkey. The scenario that is emerging is similar to
that of Pakistan which was propped up as a front line state in the West’s war
against the Soviet intervention in Afghanistan and years later to combat the terrorist
belonging to the Taliban and Al Qaeda. Pakistan itself was caught up in the
vortex of violence and continues to be embroiled in the Afghan quagmire. </span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">But critics have
alleged that Erdoğan’s government has been unwilling to shut down supply lines
from Turkey to territory controlled by IS. Certainly, questions about Turkey’s
conduct toward the group remain unanswered. For instance, given all the
violence that Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi’s followers have perpetrated, why were 46
Turks that IS took hostage in Mosul released unharmed? Turkish and Western
observers speculated that the Turks provided cash or guns or both to secure the
release of these diplomats and their families, but neither Erdoğan nor any
other Turkish official provided a clear explanation.</span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Erdoğan’s
links to the Islamic State</span></b></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">A US-led raid on the
compound housing the Islamic State's ‘chief financial officer’ Abu Sayyaf produced
evidence that Turkish officials directly dealt with senior IS members, according
to Martin Chulov of the Guardian.</span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Islamic State
official Abu Sayyaf was responsible for directing the terror group’s oil and
gas operations in Syria. The Islamic State earns about $ 10 million per month
selling oil on black markets.</span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Documents and flash
drives seized during the Sayyaf raid reportedly revealed links “so clear” and “undeniable”
between Turkey and IS “that they could end up having profound policy
implications for the relationship between us and Ankara,” a senior western
official familiar with the captured intelligence told the Guardian.</span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Erdoğan, being an Islamist himself and leader of a radical
political party, the AKP has had no compunction in colluding with the Islamic
State. There are several strategic and economic reasons for his proximity to
the terrorist group: firstly, it is simply to avoid IS carrying out terror
attacks inside Turkey; secondly, having embarked on a program of Islamisation
of Turkey, Erdoğan does not see anything wrong in the IS ideology; thirdly, he
has been using the elements of the IS to fight against his arch enemies, viz.,
the Kurds and Syrian President Assad; fourthly, and most importantly, Erdoğan’s
family members and high ranking Turkish officials have been actively involved
and are beneficiaries of the cross border smuggling of oil from Syria.</span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Erdoğan who always sheds crocodile tears for the plight of
Syrians trapped between the hammer of hunger and the anvil of IS extremism,
conceals the fact that his own son, Bilal Erdoğan, is involved in lucrative
business of smuggling the Iraqi and Syrian plundered oil. Bilal Erdoğan who
owns several maritime companies, had allegedly signed contracts with European
operating companies to carry Iraqi stolen oil to different Asian countries.</span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">A London-educated scion of wealthy family and the eldest
daughter of totalitarian President Erdoğan, Sümeyye Erdoğan, more than once
announced her intention to be dispatched to Mousl, Iraq’s once second-biggest
city and IS’ stronghold to do relief works as a volunteer which drew public
ire and vast condemnation from Turkey’s opposition parties. Moreover, the
Turkish opposition parties accused the administration of Recep Tayyip Erdoğan
of seeking diligently to hide the truth concerning numerous financial
malfeasances Erdoğan’s son, Bilal Erdoğan, was involved.</span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">It is not just Russia that has been raising these questions
about Turkish involvement in the oil smuggling racket. International media,
including the Financial Times, have been running stories tracing just how IS
refines oil then sells it to freelance traders, some of whom smuggle it into
Turkey for resale on the black market.</span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Similar reports record how IS and other armed units smuggle
in weapons and fighters across the same border areas.</span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">In the light of these accusations, it can be inferred that
the downing of the SU-24 was a pre-meditated act intended to send a message to
the Russians to stay away from the Turkey-Syrian border.</span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Turkey
a frontline state against IS terror?</span></b></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">What is Turkey’s
importance in the war against IS? Given Turkey’s proximity to the IS, Turkey’s
value is limited to real estate. The existence of Incirlik Air Base along with
the fact that Turkey shares a 500-mile border with Syria is </span><span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Erdoğan’s trump card. At least for the
moment. Erdoğan’s raving and ranting and sabre-rattling may last till Obama’s
tenure in the White House. In fact there are very few even in the Obama
Administration who believe that Turkey can be part of the solution to the
Syrian problem. As of today, Washington appears content to be able to access
Incirlik. </span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">As long as Washington refrains from pulling up Ankara for
its closeness with the IS, Turkey and Erdoğan will continue to play a double
game in the so-called war against the IS, akin to Pakistan’s policy of <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">“running with the hares and hunting with the
hounds.”</i></span><span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"></span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<br />
<br />
<br />Kumarhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02571503236070897848noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8101059815715683400.post-68251169667660946842015-11-17T00:43:00.002-08:002015-11-19T02:15:50.904-08:00Paris 13/11 - An Analysis<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; text-align: left;">
<i><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">This post looks into the possible
lapses in intelligence, post-attack investigation and measures that may be
taken to prevent another 13/11.</span></i></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Investigation into Friday the 13th
massacre made considerable headway with the names and identities of some of the
suspects who took part in the attack was disclosed by the security agencies.
Few of the suspects were either French or Belgian nationals and who appeared to
have some kind of criminal antecedents.</span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; text-align: left;">
<b><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">The Suspects with connections to
France/Belgium</span></b></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; text-align: left;">
<b><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Bilal Hadfi</span></b><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">, a Belgian resident
aged about 19 or 20 went under the names "Abu Moudjahid Al-Belgiki"
and "Bilal Al Mouhajir," has been identified as one of the three
suicide bombers who struck outside the Stade de France. </span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; text-align: left;">
<b><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Samy Amimour</span></b><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">, a French national,
aged about 28 years was born in Drancy, a north-eastern suburb of Paris was one
of the suicide bombers who blew himself up at the Bataclan Concert Hall.</span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; text-align: left;">
<b><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Ismael Omar Mostefai</span></b><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">, aged 29 years, was
a resident of Chartres, France who blew himself up at the Bataclan Concert
Hall. "He was considered a radicalized person and had a security
report," Paris prosecutor François Molins said. A Turkish official told
the Guardian that French authorities were tipped off twice about Mostefai by
Turkey, but only received an information request about him after the Paris
attacks.</span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<b><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Ibrahim Abdeslam</span></b><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"> was a 31 year old
suicide bomber who blew himself at the Comptoir Voltaire cafe on Boulevard
Voltaire.</span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; text-align: left;">
<b><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Saleh Abdelam </span></b><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">aged 26, a
Belgian-born French national and brother of Ibrahim who escaped from the
scene of the attacks. He is suspected to have rented a car used by the group.</span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
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<b><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Intelligence Lapses? And The Molenbeek Angle</span></b></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">According to the Associated Press,
Iraqi intelligence sent a dispatch saying the group's leader, Abu Bakr
al-Baghdadi, had ordered an attack on coalition countries fighting against them
in Iraq and Syria, as well as on Iran and Russia, through bombings or other
attacks in the days ahead. </span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">The dispatch said the Iraqis had no
specific details on when or where the attack would take place, and a senior
French security official told the AP that French intelligence gets this kind of
communication "all the time" and "every day." </span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Without commenting specifically on the
Iraqi warning, a senior U.S. intelligence official said he was not aware of any
threat information sent to Western governments that was specific enough to have
thwarted the Paris attacks. Officials from the US, French and other Western
governments have expressed worries for months about Islamic State-inspired
attacks by militants who fought in Syria, the official noted. In recent weeks,
the sense of danger had spiked. </span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">According to the Iraqis the Paris
attacks appear to have been planned in Raqqa, Syria — the Islamic State's
de-facto capital — where the attackers were trained specifically for this
operation and with the intention of sending them to France. The Iraqi officials
also said a sleeper cell in France then met with the attackers after their
training and helped them to execute the plan.There were 24 people involved in
the operation, they said: 19 attackers and five others in charge of logistics
and planning. It appears that though the timing of the attacks may not have
been known, the fact that an attack on Paris was imminent was known to the
French. While it may be unfair to accuse the French intelligence of lapses, the
security agencies could have increased surveillance of known terror suspects
both in France and Belgium.</span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">In the previous post a reference was
made to Belgium because certain parts of Belgium had become a safe haven for
jihadis owing allegiance to the Al Qaeda or the Islamic State.</span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Molenbeek, an impoverished suburb of
Brussels for instance has<b><span style="color: #262626;"> </span></b>a
large, predominantly Muslim population of first-, second- and third-generation
immigrants from North Africa that has gained an unwelcome reputation as a hotbed
of jihadism.</span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">In January 2015, police raided a
suspected IS terror cell in Verviers in Eastern Belgium and killed two suspects
who were alleged to be on the brink of a major Paris-style attack.<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif";"> </span>The cell members, including the man
alleged to be orchestrating the plot from abroad, Belgian-Moroccan Abelhamid
Abaaoud,<span style="color: #262626;"> belonged to the Molenbeek suburb.
Incidentally, it is now being reported by <i>The Independent</i> that </span><b>Abelhamid
Abaaoud</b> was the mastermind of the Paris attacks. The train gunman, Ayoub El
Khazzani, 25, a Moroccan national who opened fire on a train from Paris to
Amsterdam in August 2015 is also said to have spent time in Molenbeek prior to
the attack.</span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">The suspected master mind of the Paris
attacks, Abaaoud, who authorities suspect orchestrated the Verviers plot from
Greece, is believed to have joined ISIS in Syria in early 2014, according to
<i>CNN</i>. At some point, his 13-year-old brother joined him there, becoming the
youngest Belgian jihadist in Syria.</span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">After the Verviers plot was foiled,
Abaaoud evaded European authorities' efforts to apprehend him. He later was
featured in an ISIS propaganda magazine, claiming to have returned to Syria.</span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">The information about known suspects
were available with Western intelligence agencies, but for reasons best known
they were not collated properly. Like in the case of Mumbai, the security
agencies failed to connect the dots and preempt the attacks.</span><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"></span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; text-align: left;">
<b><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Hitting back </span></b></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; text-align: left;">
<b><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"> </span></b><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"> </span><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"></span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">There cannot be a hasty, haphazard
response to the carnage. What is needed is a cool, calculated and ruthless
retaliation which will ultimately deter potential terrorists from executing a
similar strike on any city in the West. Most of the foot soldiers save and
except one Saleh Abdelam are dead. The planners and those who provided
logistical support are the ones who need to be neutralised. Firstly, it would
be expected that French intelligence, both the DGSE and DGSI would activate
their network of agents around Europe and beyond in order to track the
organisers of the attacks. Secondly, friendly states and coalition partners of
France would be providing inputs in order to help France and other states in
preventing a repeat of 13/11. France must be willing to use its Special Forces
both within France and beyond to eliminate terrorists, their sympathisers and
financiers much like the Israeli special operation teams which liquidated
members of the Black September Organisation. Given the chaotic situation in
Syria, with requisite intelligence and logistical support, it would be viable
to send Special Forces to carry out targetted killing of the leadership of the
IS. The effectiveness of air strikes which are being carried out at present is
extremely doubtful.</span><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"></span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Secondly, France and the rest of the EU
members must shut its doors on migrants who enter Europe under the guise of
refugees. Given the nature of the prevailing political climate and the limited
resources at its disposal, none of the members of the EU, barring Germany has
the capability of monitoring potential risks posed by the so-called refugees to
Europe's security. Human rights' activists and civil liberty groups may protest
against such a policy, nevertheless, today with the very idea of Europe and its
cherished values being under attack from a group like the IS, barbed-wire
border controls are necessary.</span><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"></span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Thirdly, France and other EU members
must in concert strip all those individuals, who have travelled to Syria, Iraq,
Somalia, Afghanistan to fight along side terror groups like the IS, Al Qaeda,
Al-Shabaab, Taliban or other Islamist groups of citizenship. The families of
these terrorists must also be deported to their country of origin. </span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; text-align: left;">
<b><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Conclusion</span></b></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">French intelligence may not have had
specific intelligence about the scale or nature of the attacks. However, the
authorities were aware that an attack was likely especially attacks by lone
wolves like Chérif Kouachi and Said Kouachi (Charlie Hebdo shootings), Amedy
Coulibaly (Fontenay-aux-Roses, Porte de Vincennes) and Ayoub El Khazzani (train
gunman) had taken place. At the same time, the terrorists failed in their plans
to storm the Stade de France. Had they succeeded, the scale of the massacre
would have been much greater. The French police and SWAT teams did well in
rescuing hostages from the Bataclan Concert Hall. </span><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"></span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">All said and done neither France nor
its European Union partners have the means and resources or requisite laws to
enable it to take wide-sweeping preventive measures - often based on sketchy
intelligence - that probably the US can.</span><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"></span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">And fail-safe operational monitoring of
the sheer number of potential threats on European soil, in the form of
sympathisers with groups like ISIS, many of whom have actually travelled to
Syria and spent time with the group, is extremely difficult for any security
service.</span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; text-align: left;">
<i><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">[At the time of writing, it has been
reported that French police have continued their hunt for Salah Abdeslam<b> –</b>
believed to be one of the three brothers involved in Friday night’s attack, who
is on the run – and others thought to have been involved in orchestrating the
attacks on Paris on Friday.</span></i></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: left;">
<i><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Overnight raids have taken place in <b>Toulouse</b>,
<b>Grenoble</b>, <b>Jeumont </b>(on the French-Belgian border), and the Paris
suburb of <b>Bobigny</b>. The raids were carried out under the national state
of emergency declared by the president, François Hollande. At least one, in
Bobigny, is reported to be directly linked to the Paris attacks.</span></i><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"></span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: left;">
<i><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Several arrests have been reported
across those locations, with buildings searched. Weapons were reportedly seized
in Toulouse].</span></i><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"> </span></div>
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<![endif]-->Kumarhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02571503236070897848noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8101059815715683400.post-74644119211563418622015-11-14T08:52:00.003-08:002015-11-19T02:02:43.521-08:00Paris 13/11<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-CTXCuuyQ2_E/VkdihGe8hNI/AAAAAAAAADI/xWLx4gX-4wQ/s1600/paris%2Bshootings.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="color: black; font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><img border="0" height="311" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-CTXCuuyQ2_E/VkdihGe8hNI/AAAAAAAAADI/xWLx4gX-4wQ/s400/paris%2Bshootings.jpg" width="400" /></span></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">(Source: STRATFOR)</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">About seven years ago, ten Pakistan’s ISI-sponsored
terrorists belonging to the Hafeez Saeed-led Lashar-e-Taiba attacked India’s
financial capital Mumbai and caused mayhem leaving about 170 dead and scores
injured. The attacks which were coordinated and targeted multiple locations
lasted for about 60 hours. It came to be known as Mumbai 26/11. On Friday 13<sup>th</sup><span class="apple-converted-space"> </span>November
2015 about eight member fedayeen squad belonging to the Islamic State or ISIS
in a manner similar to the November 2008 Mumbai attacks carried out suicide
attacks at six sites in the French capital Paris, including a concert hall
(where the casualties were reported to be in excess of 80 dead and several
injured) and a sports stadium where a soccer match was in progress between the
national teams of France and Germany. Paris became a battle zone briefly; this
was indeed Paris 13/11.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<b><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">The Targets</span></b><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">The targets were not random, but carefully chosen by the
terrorists. The targets were places where large number of people congregated
for the purpose of entertainment, leisure or sports. They targeted young people
enjoying a rock concert and ordinary city residents enjoying a Friday night
out. In Mumbai too, while the iconic Taj and high-end hotels were targeted,
terrorists also struck a South Mumbai Café and the CST Railway Station and
attempted to kill patients in a hospital.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Beginning at 21.16 Central European Time (CET) three
separate explosions and six mass shootings occurred, including bombings near
the Stade de France in the northern suburb of Saint-Denis. The deadliest attack
was at the Bataclan Theatre, among the best-known venues in eastern Paris, near
the trendy Oberkampf area known for a vibrant nightlife, on Boulevard Voltaire
in the 11th arrondissement where the California-based American rock band Eagles
of Death Metal were playing to an audience of around 1,500. About an hour into
the concert, four black-clad men with AK-47 assault rifles entered the hall.
Witnesses heard shouts of<span class="apple-converted-space"> </span><i>“Allahu Akbar”</i><span class="apple-converted-space"> </span>just
before the gunmen calmly and methodically opened fire into the crowd. A
witness said that he saw armed men enter the Bataclan, and two or three men not
wearing masks fired indiscriminately on the crowd. The attackers also took
hostages and engaged in a standoff with police until it was ended at 00.58 CET
into the early hours of 14 November 2015. The attack lasted about 20 minutes,
with witnesses reporting that the attackers also threw grenades into the crowd.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">The first attacks occurred on the Rue Bichat and Rue
Alibert, near the Canal Saint-Martin in the 10<sup>th</sup><span class="apple-converted-space"> </span>arrondissement<span class="apple-converted-space"> </span>of
Paris. Attackers shot at people outside Le Carillon, a café-bar, in the same
general neighborhood as the Charlie Hebdo offices, at approximately 21.20 CET.
They then crossed Rue Bichat and attacked Le Petit Cambodge (Little Cambodia),
a restaurant, leaving between four and eleven people dead. According to
the French police, 11 people were killed at the restaurant. The assailants
reportedly fled in one or two vehicles after the shootings. One of the vehicles
was known to have had a Belgian number plate. Shots were fired at the terrace
of La Casa Nostra, an Italian restaurant, in Rue de la Fontaine-au-Roi south of
Rue Bichat, by a man wielding a machine gun.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Three explosions occurred near the Stade de France in the
suburb of Saint-Denis, and resulted in at least five deaths. At least 10 people
were injured or killed in an explosion at a bar near the stadium at
approximately 21.30 CET, about twenty minutes after the kick-off in an
international friendly soccer match between France and Germany which the President
of France Francois Hollande was attending.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Two attackers fired for several minutes at the terrace of La
Belle Équipe, a restaurant on the rue de Charonne in the 11<sup>th</sup><span class="apple-converted-space"> </span>arrondissement
of Paris before returning to their car and driving away at approximately 21.50
CET. At the time of writing this post, about 127 persons were killed, out of 352 persons injured about 100 sustained grievous and life-threatening injuries. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "georgia" , serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">The targets were not random, but carefully chosen by the
terrorists. The targets were places where large number of people congregated
for the purpose of entertainment, leisure or sports. They targeted young people
enjoying a rock concert and ordinary city residents enjoying a Friday night
out. In Mumbai too, while the iconic Taj and high-end hotels frequented by
foreigners were targeted, terrorists also struck a South Mumbai Café and the
CST Railway Station and attempted to kill patients in a hospital. They also
attacked the Jewish Chhabad House and killed innocents.</span></div>
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<b><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Were the attacks inevitable?</span></b><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Though the attacks were shocking, they should not have
caught the French intelligence napping. Several French nationals of North
African/Middle Eastern descent and from other EU countries were known to have
travelled to Syria in order to fight either for the Islamic State or other
terror groups in Syria/Iraq and the survivors would have returned home with
skills to stage violence. The Charlie Hebdo attack which served as a wake-up
call demonstrated that there was a constant risk of terror strikes in France
and elsewhere in Europe.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Moreover, the country had witnessed several smaller-scale
attacks or attempts since, including an incident on a high-speed train in
August in which American travelers thwarted an attempted attack by a heavily
armed man.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">The French military’s participation in bombing Islamic State
targets in Syria and Iraq and fighting extremists in Africa, and extremist
groups have frequently threatened France in the past.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Brian Michael Jenkins, a terrorism expert and senior adviser
to the president of the Washington-based RAND Corporation said the tactic used
— "multiple attackers in coordinated attacks at multiple locations" —
echoed recommendations published in the extremist group's online magazine,
Dabbiq, over the summer.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">"The big question on everyone's mind is, were these
attackers, if they turn out to be connected to one of the groups in Syria, were
they homegrown terrorists or were they returning fighters from having
served" with the Islamic State group, Jenkins said. "That will be a
huge question." The first important part of the post-attack investigation
for the<span class="apple-converted-space"> </span><i><span style="background: white; font-style: normal;">Direction
générale de la sécurité intérieure</span></i><span style="background: white;">, </span>DGSI
would be to determine the identity of the attackers; whether they were French
nationals or nationals of neighbouring countries like Belgium or were they
illegally brought into France for the purpose of executing these strikes.<span class="apple-converted-space"> </span><i>(There
have been reports that one of the killed terrorist was a French national).</i><span class="apple-converted-space"> </span>An
equally important challenge would be to trace out the cell members or
accomplices who gave the terrorists logistical support. The men who perpetrated
and their accomplices who were possibly French or Belgian residents were highly
trained and motivated. Again these issues have transnational repercussions
because EU citizens can travel freely in the Schengen area. At the time of
writing this post, France had closed its international borders. International
borders cannot be kept closed permanently. There is a need to increase
surveillance on minority groups in France, Belgium, Germany, and Netherlands
and beyond. It is a nightmarish period for the French External Intelligence
Agency, the<span class="apple-converted-space"> </span><span style="background: white;"> <i><span style="font-style: normal;">Direction générale de la sécurité extérieure</span></i></span><span class="apple-converted-space"> </span>DGSE.
There is an urgent need for concerted effort to track the sleeper cells in
these countries and members neutralized (liquidated). In all likelihood
the men who executed this operation had sufficient knowledge of the targets
because it would be impossible to execute this kind of coordinated strike
without reconnaissance.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<b><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Political Repercussions</span></b><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">The attacks will surely have serious political consequences.
They come days before France's aircraft carrier, the Charles de Gaulle, is due
to set sail for the Persian Gulf for actions against the Islamic State in Iraq
and Syria. France has been carrying out airstrikes in Syria since late
September. Since the Islamic State has claimed responsibility for the attacks
and certainly appears to be a case of the attackers being IS members France
will have little choice but to target the IS with vigour both within France in
the form of a crackdown and militarily strike in Syria and Iraq at
notwithstanding the fact that the Syrian battlefield in particular is becoming
crowded and complicated.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">France will have to seriously re-think and re-consider
admitting so-called refugees from the troubled hot spots of North Africa and
Middle East. While the German Government led by Ms Merkel has been foolish
enough to allow and admit large number of migrants from Syria and other states
in the region to enter Germany, this incident can be expected to strengthen the
argument of those groups that have been calling for a halt in the flow of
immigrants and the closing of borders in countries such as Germany, Sweden and
much of Central and Eastern Europe<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">According to STRATFOR, in the wake of these attacks, Marine
Le Pen and her far-right National Front party could see their popularity rise.
Le Pen kept a low profile after the Charlie Hebdo shooting in January 2015 and
still saw an increase in her party's popularity because of its longstanding
anti-immigration stance. Hollande also saw a brief upward trend in popularity
after the Charlie Hebdo attack because of his reaction to the events, but a
repeat of this trend is not expected because people will now question whether
the anti-terrorism measures that were approved this year actually worked. The
leader of the center-right Republicans Party, Nicolas Sarkozy, also has a
history of taking a strong stance on security issues; he was campaigning on the
subject only last week.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<b><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Conclusion</span></b><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Mumbai 26/11 had become a template for jihadis world-wide.
If lessons of Mumbai 26/11 were learnt, France could have at least partially
thwarted the designs of the terrorists. Of course, unlike Mumbai, the attacks
ended within a few hours and the French Special Forces,RAID and SWAT teams
deserve to be commended.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">The Paris attacks only underscores that open societies /
liberal democracies will continue to be susceptible to terrorism. Terrorists
have often found it easier to carry out such dastardly attacks on the West as
compared to, say, Moscow or Beijing.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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Kumarhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02571503236070897848noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8101059815715683400.post-78974980744526983062015-09-07T01:41:00.001-07:002015-09-07T23:45:17.437-07:00Enrica Lexie - A Legal Perspective - 2<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<br />
<span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">This post examines the
question whether the two Italian marines are entitled to immunity from
prosecution.</span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">The principle of state
immunity probably arises as a consequence of equality of states according to
the rule <b><i>“par in parem non habet imperium”</i> – no state can claim
jurisdiction over another</b>. The jurisdictional immunity of foreign states
has often also been variously – and often simultaneously – deduced not only
from the principles of equality but also from the principles of independence
and of dignity of states.<a href="https://www.blogger.com/null" name="_ftnref1"></a><a href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=8101059815715683400#_ftn1" title=""><span style="mso-bookmark: _ftnref1;">[1]</span></a></span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">The principles of
international law regarding jurisdictional immunities of states have derived
mainly from the judicial practice of individual nation. This first articulation
of the principle of state immunity was recognized by the United States Supreme
Court in its famous 1812 judgment of <b>The Schooner Exchange v. McFaddon<a href="https://www.blogger.com/null" name="_ftnref2"></a><a href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=8101059815715683400#_ftn2" title=""><span style="mso-bookmark: _ftnref2;">[2]</span><span style="mso-bookmark: _ftnref2;"></span></a></b><span style="mso-bookmark: _ftnref2;"></span>. Chief
Justice Marshall clearly enunciated the principle: “[The] full and absolute
territorial jurisdiction being alike the attribute of every sovereign, and
being incapable of conferring extraterritorial power, would not seem to
contemplate foreign sovereigns nor their sovereign rights as its objects. One
sovereign being in no respect amenable to another; and being bound by
obligations of the highest character not to degrade the dignity of his nation,
by placing himself or its sovereign rights within the jurisdiction of another,
can be supposed to enter a foreign territory only under an express license, or
in the confidence that the immunities belonging to his independent sovereign
station, though not expressly stipulated, are reserved by implication, and will
be extended to him”. </span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">A theory that long
prevailed, particularly in the UK that a foreign state could not be impleaded
(i.e. sued) before a municipal tribunal under any circumstances. The doctrine
of sovereign immunity was originally devised to uphold mutual respect between
monarchs by according immunity to the exercise of their state functions within
foreign jurisdictions. However, the 20th century saw the rise of industrial
enterprises funded and controlled by the state: to accord immunity to such
enterprises gave them an unfair commercial advantage and the absolute view of
state immunity was gradually abandoned by the international community. </span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">A number of states
started adopting the <b>restrictive approach to immunity</b>, allowing the
exercise of jurisdiction over a state’s non-sovereign acts. The Austrian
Supreme Court in 1950 concluded that in the light of increased activity of
states in the commercial field the classic doctrine of absolute immunity had
lost its meaning and was no longer a rule of international law. A significant
change in American policy regarding state immunity occurred in 1952, when the
then acting legal adviser to the U.S. State Department, Jack B Tate wrote a
letter to the acting Attorney General of the US wherein he indicated acceptance
of the restrictive theory of immunity by the US government. He pointed out that
the adoption of the restrictive theory by more and more countries justified the
restrictions involved. He noted that henceforth from the view of the Department
of State, “private activities of foreign sovereigns” should be denied immunity
in American courts. In <b>Victory Transport Inc v Comisaria General de
Abastecimientos y Transportes (1964)<a href="https://www.blogger.com/null" name="_ftnref3"></a><a href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=8101059815715683400#_ftn3" title=""><span style="mso-bookmark: _ftnref3;">[3]</span><span style="mso-bookmark: _ftnref3;"></span></a></b><span style="mso-bookmark: _ftnref3;"></span> the State
Department refused to issue a certificate of immunity because the government of
Francisco Franco of Spain was the appellant/defendant. Lacking a determination
from the State Department of sovereign immunity, the court developed a set of
operational tests by which <i>acta jure imperii</i> might be determined:</span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<i><span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">“Since
the State Department’s failure or refusal to suggest immunity is significant,
we are disposed to deny a claim of sovereign immunity that has not been
“recognized and allowed” by the State Department unless it is plain that the
activity in question falls within one of the categories of strictly political
or public acts about which sovereigns have traditionally been quite sensitive.
Such acts are generally limited to the following categories:</span></i><span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"></span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<i><span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">1.
Internal administrative acts such as expulsion of an alien</span></i><span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"></span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<i><span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">2.
Legislative acts, such as nationalization</span></i><span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"></span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<i><span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">3.
<b>Acts concerning the armed forces</b></span></i><span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"></span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<i><span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">4.
Acts concerning diplomatic activity</span></i><span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"></span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<i><span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">5.
Public loans”.</span></i></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">The ‘acts concerning
armed forces’ is relevant in the context of the case involving Italian marines.</span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">An alternative approach
treats functional immunity as a distinct principle which is concerned with
attribution of acts undertaken on behalf of a State. As the International
Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia explained in the Blaškić case,</span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<i><span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">State
officials acting in their official capacity ... are mere instruments of a State
and their official action can only be attributed to the State. They cannot be
the subject of sanctions or penalties for conduct that is not private but
undertaken on behalf of a State. In other words, State officials cannot suffer
the consequences of wrongful acts which are not attributable to them personally
but to the State on whose behalf they act: they enjoy so-called ‘functional
immunity’.</span></i><span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"> [<b>Prosecutor v. Tihomir Blaskić </b>(Judgment on
the Request of Croatia for Review of the Decision of Trial Chamber II of 18
July 1997), (1997) 110 ILR 607 (ICTY Appeals Chamber), at para. 38 (emphasis
added)].</span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">The norms of customary
international law concerning the functional (or <i>ratione materiae</i>)
immunity of State officials from foreign (criminal, civil and administrative)
jurisdiction remain controversial and contemporary international law scholars
still disagree about their scope of application and content.<a href="https://www.blogger.com/null" name="_ftnref4"></a><a href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=8101059815715683400#_ftn4" title=""><span style="mso-bookmark: _ftnref4;">[4]</span></a></span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">The United Nations’
International Law Commission (ILC) undertook a study on a key aspect of this
topic, namely the functional (as well as personal) immunity of State officials
from foreign criminal jurisdiction.<a href="https://www.blogger.com/null" name="_ftnref5"></a><a href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=8101059815715683400#_ftn5" title=""><span style="mso-bookmark: _ftnref5;">[5]</span><span style="mso-bookmark: _ftnref5;"></span></a><span style="mso-bookmark: _ftnref5;"></span> However,
according to Mazzeschi, these works did not clarify the most controversial
legal issues and further have not yet produced convincing results. In fact,
both the ILC Special Rapporteurs have dogmatically accepted, without any form
of critical review, the old ‘Kelsenian theory’, according to which <i>all</i>
State officials have the right, in principle, to functional immunity from
foreign jurisdiction regarding their ‘official’ acts, i.e., when acting in
their official capacity.</span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">According to the
traditional long held view, functional immunity is based on the conceptual
premise that acts performed by an agent in his/her official capacity and in the
exercise of his/her duties cannot be attributed to the individual agent, but
only and always to the State for which the official is acting. Therefore,
functional immunity should not be procedural in nature, but rather should
represent a substantive exemption from the law. This would mean that functional
immunity is due to <i>all</i> foreign State officials and, at least in principle,
would cover <i>all</i> their ‘official’ acts.</span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">An early instance of a
claim of functional immunity came in the case of a criminal charge against one
MacLeod in 1841. Mr. MacLeod, a member of the British armed forces, allegedly
attacked a ship moored in New York State while under orders from his government
to do so. Much later, he was arrested while visiting the United States on
unrelated business and put on trial in New York for a murder resulting from the
destruction of the ship. The British government objected claiming that the
attack was an official act and therefore any responsibility born by Mr. MacLeod
should be transferred to the United Kingdom resulting in his release from
custody and trial. The British and American governments essentially agreed,</span></div>
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<i><span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">[t]hat
an individual, forming part of a public force, and acting under the authority
of his government, is not to be held answerable as a private trespasser or
malefactor, is a principle of public law sanctioned by the usages of all
civilized nations, and which the Government of the United States has no
inclination to dispute.</span></i></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Nevertheless, Mr.
MacLeod was tried in New York State on the allegations of murder.<a href="https://www.blogger.com/null" name="_ftnref6"></a><a href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=8101059815715683400#_ftn6" title=""><span style="mso-bookmark: _ftnref6;">[6]</span><span style="mso-bookmark: _ftnref6;"></span></a><span style="mso-bookmark: _ftnref6;"></span> While the
executive branch of the United States Federal Government seems to have conceded
that MacLeod should have benefited from functional immunity, this was not a
universal sentiment in the federal government at the time.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">It is in the light of
the above discourse one needs to assess whether the Italian marines were
entitled to immunity from prosecution. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">In the Indian Supreme
Court, reliance was placed on behalf of the Union of India on the United
Nations Privileges and Immunities Act, 1947, and the Diplomatic Relations
(Vienna Convention) Act, 1972, which gave certain diplomats, missions and their
members diplomatic immunity even from criminal jurisdiction. The author is of
the opinion that reference to immunity of diplomats and foreign missions has no
relevance to the facts of the present case. It needs to be pointed out that the
vessel was not headed towards India or Indian territorial waters but was en
route to Djibouti. So also the marines were not accredited to any mission in
India.</span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">The question for
consideration is whether the Italian marines were members of the armed forces
of the Republic of Italy? The answer to this is in the affirmative. Secondly,
were they on aboard the Italian flagged tanker in their private capacity or
pursuant to an order of the Republic of Italy? Though they were assigned to a
commercial vessel by the Italian government, they were discharging their
functions as members of the armed forces. They were not discharging the
functions as private security guards hired by the owner of the vessel to
protect the ship and its personnel and cargo against pirates. The argument that
merely the presence of armed forces’ personnel on a private vessel does not
make it a public ship or warship, again is of no relevance since the question is
not inviolability of the ship but inviolability of the military personnel
aboard the ship. Prof. Natalino Ronzitti emphasized that the Italian guards were
members of the Italian military (he noted also that the legislative framework
for private Italian guards had not yet been put in place). In particular, he
pointed out that both national Italian law and the United Nations resolutions
supported the use of armed guards to repel pirates. He argued that the actions
of the Italian marines should be attributed to Italy and not the marines
individually. This would exclude their criminal trial in India. Thus, the
marines appear to have a strong case for raising the plea of immunity.
Interestingly the Indian Supreme Court did not adjudicate on the question of
immunity while dealing with the Special Leave Petition. At para 98 of the
judgment, the Court observed:</span></div>
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<i><span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">"The
principles enunciated in the Lotus case (supra) have, to some extent, been watered
down by Article 97 of UNCLOS 1982. Moreover, as observed in Starke’s
International Law, referred to by Mr. Salve, the territorial criminal
jurisdiction is founded on various principles which provide that, as a matter
of convenience, crimes should be dealt with by the States whose social order is
most closely affected. <b><span style="color: red;">However, it has also been
observed that some public ships and armed forces of foreign States may enjoy a
degree of immunity from the territorial jurisdiction of a nation."</span></b></span></i><span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"> </span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Strangely it was also
argued that as per the Policy of the Government of India, no foreign arms or
foreign private armed guards or foreign armed forces personnel, accompanying
merchant vessels, were allowed diplomatic clearance. Nor is it the policy of
the Government of India to enter into any Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA) by
which foreign armed forces are given immunity from criminal prosecution.
Firstly, the Italian vessel was transiting through the Indian Contiguous
Zone/EEZ. It was either ‘intercepted’ or informed by the Indian Coast Guard to
enter India’s territorial waters and proceed to the port of Kochi. Secondly,
SOFA applies to foreign troops posted in the territory of another state
pursuant to an agreement. In fact, India could not have even argued about India
not having a Visiting Forces Agreement (VFA) which is similar to SOFA and which
covers forces visiting the host state temporarily for the Italian vessel’s
intended destination was not India but Djibouti. Thirdly, the vessel was
sailing in an area which was prone to piracy and had witnessed attacks by
pirates in the past. <i>[Between 2011 and 2012, four Italian ships were
attacked and boarded by pirates: the oil tanker "Savina Caylyn", with
22 crew members, boarded on February 8 by Somali pirates off the coasts of
Yemen and released on December 21, 2011; the cargo ship "Rosalia
D'Amato", with 22 crew members, boarded April 20 in full Arabian Sea and
released November 25, 2011; the oil tanker "Enrico Ievoli", with 18
crew members, boarded in the waters off the Somali coast Dec. 27 and released
April 23, 2012 following an operation conducted by the Navy and the tug
platform "Asso 21" picked up in the night between 23 and 24 December
2012 off the coast of Nigeria].</i><b> </b></span></div>
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<b><span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Conclusion</span></b><span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"> </span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">While India’s
jurisdiction to try the two Italian marines may be well founded, especially in
the light of the provisions of Article 86 of the UNCLOS, the marines may well
be entitled to immunity from prosecution in the Indian courts.<i> </i></span><i><span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"> </span></i></div>
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<i><span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">On 24<sup>th</sup>
August 2015, by a majority opinion of 15:6, the International Tribunal for the
Law of Sea (ITLOS) asked both India and Italy to suspend all court proceedings
and refrain from initiating new ones which might aggravate or extend the
dispute submitted to the ITLOS for arbitration by Italy or might jeopardize or
prejudice the carrying out of any decision which the arbitral tribunal may
render.</span></i></div>
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<i><span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">ITLOS
has further asked Italy and India to submit to it, the initial report on
compliance of aforesaid measures not later than 24 September 2015.</span></i></div>
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<br /></div>
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<i><span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Pursuant
to the order passed by the ITLOS, the Supreme Court of India stayed all the
proceedings against the Italian marines in relation to the Enrica Lexie
incident.</span></i></div>
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<br /></div>
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<i><span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">The lawyer
representing the Union of India told the Court that the Government of India was
bound by the order passed by ITLOS and court ought also to honour the same. He
further informed the court that a five-member tribunal (ITLOS Annex VII
arbitral tribunal) would be set up to decide the issue of jurisdiction. The lawyer
representing the marines requested the Court that the matter be “adjourned sine
die” till another tribunal decides jurisdictional issue and the same be revived
by either of the parties. However the bench did not agree with the suggestion
and fixed the matter for further hearing in the third week of January, 2016.</span></i><span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"></span></div>
<br />
<div style="mso-element: footnote-list;">
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</div>
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<span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"><a href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=8101059815715683400#_ftnref1" name="_ftn1" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="line-height: 115%;">[1]</span></span></span></a>
Oppenheim’s International Law 9<sup>th</sup> Edn pp 341-342 </span></span></div>
<span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">
</span></span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">
</span></span></div>
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<br />
<div class="MsoFootnoteText">
<span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"><a href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=8101059815715683400#_ftnref2" name="_ftn2" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="line-height: 115%;">[2]</span></span></span></a> [(1812)
7 Cranch 116]</span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">
</span></span></div>
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<br />
<div class="MsoFootnoteText">
<span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"><a href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=8101059815715683400#_ftnref3" name="_ftn3" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="line-height: 115%;">[3]</span></span></span></a> US
Court of Appeals 2d Cir., 1964, 336<span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="font-weight: normal;"><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="line-height: 115%;"> </span></span></span></span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoFootnoteText">
<span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"><a href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=8101059815715683400#_ftnref4" name="_ftn4" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="font-weight: normal;"><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="line-height: 115%;">[4]</span></span></span></span></a><span style="font-weight: normal;"> Ricardo Pisillo Mazzeschi – The functional immunity of State officials
from foreign jurisdiction: A critique of the traditional theories http://www.qil-qdi.org/the-functional-immunity-of-state-officials-from-foreign-jurisdiction-a-critique-of-the-traditional-theories/#_ftn1
</span></span></span></div>
</div>
<div id="ftn4" style="text-align: left;">
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<div style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">
</span></span></div>
<div id="ftn5" style="text-align: left;">
<br />
<div class="MsoFootnoteText">
<span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"><a href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=8101059815715683400#_ftnref5" name="_ftn5" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="line-height: 115%;">[5]</span></span></span></a>
Reports of the Special Rapporteurs: RA Kolodkin, ‘Preliminary report on
immunity of State officials from foreign criminal jurisdiction’ (29 May 2008)
UN Doc A/CN.4/601; RA Kolodkin, ‘<i>Second report on immunity of
State officials from foreign criminal jurisdiction’</i> (10 June 2010)
UN Doc A/CN.4/631; RA Kolodkin, ‘Third report on immunity of State officials
from foreign criminal jurisdiction’ (24 May 2011) UN Doc A/CN.4/646; C Escobar
Hernández, ‘Preliminary report on the immunity of State officials from foreign
criminal jurisdiction’ (31 May 2012) UN Doc A/CN.4/654; C Escobar Hernández,
‘Second report on the immunity of State officials from foreign criminal
jurisdiction’ (4 April 2013) UN Doc A/CN.4/661; C Escobar Hernández, ‘Third
report on the immunity of State officials from foreign criminal jurisdiction’
(2 June 2014) UN Doc A/CN.4/673.</span></span></div>
</div>
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<span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">
</span></span></div>
<div id="ftn6" style="mso-element: footnote;">
<div class="MsoFootnoteText" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"><a href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=8101059815715683400#_ftnref6" name="_ftn6" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="line-height: 115%;">[6]</span></span></span></a> Macleod
was acquitted for want of evidence.</span></span></div>
</div>
</div>
Kumarhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02571503236070897848noreply@blogger.com0