The Indian Prime
Minister Narendra Modi left on a visit to five Central Asian countries and
Russia aiming to enhance strategic, economic and energy ties as well attending
summits of BRICS and the Shanghai Co-operation Organisation (SCO).
The SCO Summit, to be
held in Ufa in Russia, may see India getting the membership of the six-nation
grouping comprising China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan and
Tajikistan, which could be a major highlight of the visit. India has only an
observer status since June 2005. A formal application for full-fledged
membership was submitted in September 2014 during the last SCO summit.
Pakistan’s application for the full membership is also being taken into
consideration.
Sana Hashmi in her
article India's entry into the SCO may bring it closer to China writes: “The
2015 Shanghai Cooperation Organisation Summit, to be held on July 9-10 in
Russia will be yet another test case for Modi’s diplomatic skill probing
whether he can get New Delhi its due place at the international stage. It may
be noted that Afghanistan, India, Iran, Mongolia and Pakistan hold observer
status in the grouping. The focus of the summit is likely to be on enlarging
the scope of membership and widening economic cooperation, regional
connectivity and security issues that make SCO more significant than ever for
India.”
Strangely, India has
shown increasing interest in becoming a full-fledged member of an organization
which has People’s Republic of China as one of its founding-member and Pakistan
which is likely to be accorded full membership. Ms Hashmi in her article writes
that China was reluctant to approve India’s candidature and is now ready to
back India’s entry into the organization. In the article she highlights the
‘conditionalities’ to be met before a state can be admitted as a member of the
organization, namely, First, the applicant country should be geographically
contiguous to one of the SCO members; Second, it should not have United Nations
sanctions imposed on it; Third, it should have diplomatic relations with all
SCO members; Fourth, it should have the status of an observer or a dialogue
partner in the grouping before applying for the full membership; Fifth, it
should have active trade, economic and humanitarian linkages with SCO members
and; Finally, the applicant country should not be involved in any
armed/territorial disputes with either of the member states. India while
meeting most of the essentials, cannot overcome the final hurdle because India
has an ongoing territorial/boundary dispute with both China and Pakistan.
Why has China changed
its stance? Is it to seek India’s cooperation and support for China’s proposed
‘One Belt, One Road’ initiative? China's interest in India and Pakistan has
increased since adopting its Maritime Silk Road strategy and that could be
behind its acquiescence to their joining the SCO, added Li Lifan, a researcher
at the Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences. "I think China supports
India and Pakistan to become full members simultaneously in line with the
development of the grand 'Maritime Silk Road' scheme proposed by China. Or is
it to woo India away from a possible US-Japan-India alliance which may be used
as counterweight against China? Or is China trying to use an Asian version of
NATO to blunt the US pivot or re-balance to Asia?
So what will an
expansion do to the organization? It may strengthen China's role as a regional
security provider. "An expanded SCO will be in a better position to
achieve Xi’s vision of becoming the regional security heavyweight," wrote
Shannon Tiezzi in an analysis in The Diplomat. "Despite a tendency to
see the SCO as a competitor to NATO, Chinese leaders stress that the SCO is
something entirely new. In the Dushanbe Summit (Sept 2014), Xi announced that
'SCO members have created a new model of international relations — partnership
instead of alliance.'”
A theory that has been
put forth is that with the US withdrawal of forces from Afghanistan and the
impending security vacuum may have made China realize that Indian involvement
in counter-terrorism efforts and stability in the region were essential.
Pakistan’s military establishment will not permit any Indian participation
through the SCO in Afghanistan as it would run counter to its primary
objectives and core interests.
Three years ago, the
renowned strategic affairs expert, late B Raman in an article India must be
cautious while seeking SCO full membership expressed reservations on
India’s proposed entry into the SCO. He wrote: “While China has been trying to
use the security mechanism of the SCO for dealing with organisations which are
perceived as posing a threat to Beijing and the Central Asian Republics, it
does not look upon anti-India organisations such as the Lashkar-e-Tayiba, the
Jaish-e-Mohammad, the Harkt-ul-Jihad-al-Islami and the
Harkat-ul-Mujahideen which are sponsored by Pakistan's Inter-Services
Intelligence, or the Afghan Taliban or the Haqqani Network, which are the
allies of Pakistan, as coming within the ambit of the SCO security mechanism.”
China in keeping with the policy of shielding its “all weather friend”
Pakistan, a few days ago, blocked a bid by India to question the release of
Mumbai 26/11 mastermind Zaki-ur-Rehman Lakhvi from captivity. China’s flimsy justification
for blocking India’s bid was that India had not provided adequate information.
He further wrote: “While
seeking full membership of the SCO, India should carefully consider to what
extent it would be advisable for it to participate in an internal security
co-operation mechanism of which China and Pakistan would be members. There
would be very little compatibility between our internal security concerns and
interests and those of China and Pakistan and it could be counter-productive
for us to participate in this mechanism.” Further can India achieve success
against Pak-based terror groups through the SCO’s Regional Anti-Terrorism
Structure (RATS)? Even if an agreement is reached to tackle terrorism of all
hues, very little is likely to be achieved by India on the ground in its battle
against Pakistan based terror outfits such as the Lashkar, Jeish, HUJI and
HUM.
The internal security
co-operation mechanism of the SCO is proposed to be extended to the area of
cyber security. The Council of Shanghai Co-operation Organisation’s Regional
Anti-Terrorism Structure (RATS), at its 22nd Session in Tashkent in
April 2013 reached an agreement on new measures to combat cyber terrorism. The
main threats to India’s cyber security arise from Pakistan and China. Will it
be in India’s interest to participate in any connectivity and inter-operability
mechanism relating to cyber security with China? Or Pakistan for that matter?
The views expressed by late B Raman, three years ago continue to hold true even
today.
It would be extremely
foolhardy for India to rush and join an organisation which may not sub-serve
India’s interests and also undermine India’s security. India can further its
interests in the region by promoting bilateral cooperation with Central Asian republics
bypassing the SCO.
